WEATHER53

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He really is an awful poster though.  He's one of the few here that make being here unpleasant most of the time.

You have the power.

41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That really isn't cold for what is supposed to be the coldest time of the year.

You should transfer your hobby to clinically depressed, negative and wrong and cease cluttering up space here.

Can somebody give me their take on what temp will be at BWI for Tues 6pm, wed 6am, wed 6pm and thurs 6am

thanks 

6 hours ago, Chris78 said:

That storm will be burned into my memory forever. Took me 6 hours to go from Frederick to Smithsburg On I -70. Some of the most intense rates I've ever experienced. 

Me too. Sideways fire hose snow

Mega front

20F drop in one hour should change it.

Models in winter do only two things well-cutters and cold outbreaks. Any other form of low pressure they are cluless

56 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Look at this. Someone said yesterday Minneapolis had it's lowest 850mb temperature on record on the 18z GFS with -42c breaching the USA. This might be top 5 too. 

(It's duality to todays Feb 21, 2018 ridge lol)

I started talking about this 1/14 in the closed Jan med /long range thread. That air is still coming and the -42 850s is 1982,85,94 stuff and is following the typical trajectory of nw-se and across the lakes and over us. It does not push far south and then roll over onto  us, it’s a direct shot.

These epic cold winter shots have been coming up in convo and analogs since fall.  We know it can happen. Nothing like 10 degrees at 1pm on a sunny day or snowy one. 

-42 850s is 1982,85,94 stuff.

Too many unproven indexes used and offered as the savior or the destructor. After being lambasted about my “10 days away” commentary which I began around Christmas, I have turned out to be exactly right. MJO and SSW and NAO either in tandem or cherry picked are simply unproven as to outcomes for our area.

I believe in the upcoming big cold, 5 degrees colder than what we just had 

Just 10 days away is a bad pattern to be in as it just keeps rolling forward to the next 10 days away segment. 

14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I don’t think anybody trusts the models. But it’s the only tool we have for forecasting. Without the models we’d just be guessing. And right now all the models do is provide us with a slightly better guess. But let’s be honest. At the end of the day the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do

Models do not predict weather for 5+ days, they merely give examples of it

Still getting a few gusts to 25 and 14F

High of 20.5

No temp  rise in last 2 hours, still 18.5 but fun outside in full sun, got a reading of 33 in full sun but wind wiped that out

Ineffective Sunshine Advisory in effect!

11.5 for overnight low and  currently 18.5

Huge cold coming end of Jan. Beyond vodka

Came back from Salisbury and bridge was nerve racking. Definitely some over 50 mph  gusts up there.

 Just gusted right now to 44 here.

Wind chill is sustained but when a 40/45 mpg two second gust hits you that “wind chill” is real.

Had a wedding at Seneca Lodge tonight for daughters best friend and I’ve been nervous. Last two storms were easy but this was tough and getting down to 20-30 miles so fine line. Told them freezing rain out there would kill people thus cancel but got a break on it.

We definitely kicked this around about 60 at Norfolk while 40 in DC and there may be some more extreme variables with other locations.

could see Pittsburg at 15 and Norfolk at 60 around 2/3pm

What time does front blow thru DC?

Thanks

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Current surface pressures . Actually current obs look weaker and a little south of the nams at this current hour .Nams are around 994-95 mb and centered on the Kentucky/ TN line if not a lil north of that 

 

 

That’s 1pm and that 998 did not lift from the 12noon one so will be interesting to see 2pm one

21 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Low is currently in w TN and track appears to be something like CRW to 50n FDK to PHL to ISP to BOS. There may be some eastward jogs in that overall e.n.e. to n.e. track. So I would expect some interesting weather to develop later because this is not advecting warm air very efficiently and when heavier precip moves in over top, it could change phase in some parts of MD and far n VA, ne WV. Not saying snow from that, more like ice pellets or sleet. Eventually it will begin to draw in the high 50s and low 60s temps from se VA but I think a very sharp demarcation of air masses will develop overnight so that some counties of se MD will reach 60-65 and the I-95 will stay around 40-45, further north 33-38. This is when precip could get quite thundery. When the low center reaches NYC the arctic cold front will be rushing southeast and temps on Sunday will likely fall 20-30 deg in a few hours, from those variable numbers in the warm sector and frontal zone, to 10-15 F. Some bursts of moderate snow are possible with the passage of the arctic front, 0.1 to 0.3 inch forecast for the airports and 1.0 inch for some parts of nw MD. 

So for the northern half of the forum it won't be a simple case of warming up, raining, and turning colder. For the southern half it may play out like that more so. 

Another thing that an arctic front does that a typical cold front does not  is it squeezes out the moisture more than relying on residual moisture. I think thunder is probable and snow squalls and showers.

-2.5 850 And -1 925.

surface plots shows a 998 that surface plot wise did not gain latitude in last hour but rather due east. Hard to assess but extreme cold to northeast is from departed  low and extreme cold from nw/w is from arctic high