WEATHER53

We’ve had several excellent spurts of observations. Most weren’t as long or totally what we thought. We are approaching almost 30 days of this pattern  and that’s way better than typical in many/most winters 

The model scorecard is abysmal. If 100 meant they got precip types, amounts, start and end time, and temperatures correct and 0 meant all wrong then they are squarely at a 35 over the last 2-3 weeks. 

Luckily , every other scientific entity that we rely on does not operate at this accuracy level 

There’s some unknown floating frozen in it along with now moderate freezing drizzle and 29.1.

10:30

29.3 and light freezing drizzle 

snow is around but just can get it here. 

29 here after a high of 30.8

That bottom layer was loose at 3pm but not now 

Models are just tools

Like a pair of plyers  for painting or a paintbrush for hammering in nails-Tools

2am obs

28.5F 16DP.  I think we get a 3-5 degree temp drop with steady onset. 

Light greens dried up over me. Can we see how far down snow makes it?

Man the clouds are moving. Fully clear to fully cloudy really fast . Gonna hazard 40mph?

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

NE wind rn is pretty damn cold tho

How much for Philly And Sleet is like having a hot sister Both got rolled out in last 24 hours!

Good times !

33 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

31/15 downtown - at least we're below freezing this time.

And this afternoon was  not 52 for a high with a preceding 35 low. 

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

thank you howard. Now every one dial 202 936 1212

202-589-1212 but I’m not on until tomorrow 

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

randy almost suspended me today

I talked him out of it. Be nice now.

M*tt

i have not read anything for hours so will catch up but I think you say you never like it when precip shoots up into PA from our west and then curls eastward all the way to far eastern PA and well east of DC at that point!

did I get it right?

do you have that concern tonight if I did ?

43 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

I agree that there's opportunity there. In fairness though, IBM does have a model (which we laugh at) and they are a leading supercomputer manufacturer. I think part of the problem may be data acquisition for model input. NWS has a large network to gather data that would be really expensive to replicate. I'm not sure that data is all readily accessible. The old data adage "garbage in, garbage out" is very accurate. So even if IBM or Musk could build an epic supercomputer and program top-notch physics into it, the model would still be crap without good data. 

That’s why outcome analogs should be the method and not theoretical physics.

Very good data since 1960. 60 years.  Let’s say there are 3 Miller As per season, 180 sample size.

Break those 180 down to

1. The low passes within 30 miles of Atlanta.

2. The low is more than 30 miles north of Atlanta 

3. The low is more than 30 miles south of Atlanta 

then overlay that with

1.The high is 30.30 or higher 12 hours before onset

2.The high is lower than 30.30

You will get a decent sample set of 10-20 matching outcomes in each category.  No wailing about sample size, the outcomes are what they are

When you take #1 on the storm and #1 on the high and 20 instances arise and 15 times DC got 3” or more then there is your model replacement 

When you take #2 and #2 and 22 instances match and 16 times DC got rain then there is your new and improved, outcome based, non model forecasting.

The will is not there mostly  due to entrenched commitment to status quo and embedded money issues.

i promised you all I had a solution and not just bitching. Let the naysay begin.

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away.  
 

 

All bases covered.

This time it’s sunny beforehand . Good strong well located high and not some too Far East high already moistening up and we were cloudy 

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

How’s the confidence meter?

Depends on Pittsburgh and Boston

It’s better this time. 30 in Pittsburgh and 19 in Boston is  shit for DC. 

Other  way around just fine 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my first hypothesis at a theory that might evolve into a guess of a future forecast.   Any resemblance to other forecasts, living or dead, is completely coincidental.  

How’s the confidence meter?

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

H***wd.  He's a troll.  Don't waste your time buddy. 

Ok thanks 

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

How come africa dosent have a model?

I think Bowie’s wife was. 

3 minutes ago, ForestHillbilly said:

You can delete my post or ridicule me. But we have seen this before. This set up is ready to let us down. I hope not, but the models do not favor us.

But the situation does favor us.  High in the right place, western low some problem but not strong nor too far north, then coastal and by now it’s a drawn out event thru Friday. Highs 25-30 

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is like our 9th wave since last week and we are 0-8

2-6

The high pressure looks really good, finally not so Far East, 30.40 into PA is great for us. 

2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Look at how far south that high is!

Get it 150 miles nw and it’s all snow perfection for DC 

1 hour ago, ForestHillbilly said:

Looking like a nothing for DC and NOVA. Remember your climo.

Sell appointed snow ball busters are for the trash heap