WEATHER53

As far as snow , models have about a 25% accuracy this winter. when you and I started in early 2000’s they were about 70% accurate on snow calls. Then they tried to become more complicated and turn into microscopes rather than a broader based binoculars and since about 2011 they have been 50/50 with a recent decrease in that over last 3 years. They do great for wind events because they don’t start hyping it 2 weeks in advance in an attempt to accomplish what they can’t. Winter weather models could try that approach

Utter crap continues

I wedged our plastics in as best I could but its been a chase the rolling soda bottles morning.

Closing in and holding strength. Just 5-10 more miles

Flurries here. Half way down 270 is a batch maybe moderate. See if it holds and makes it 39F Peak gust 46

Flooded Florida and gave Maine 70mph winds I think but not sure, somewhere up there had an 85mph gust.

Snowing in Frederick

Looking too juicy need a modest miller A and not a whole bunch of moving parts that have to mesh

And the granddaddy of them all and number one event for me March 1993 Lived in Beltsville and got 13” even with rain and sleet mixing in, 40 moh gusts constantly, 2pm looked like 15 minutes before dark , record low barometer for me that nothing has been close to since 28.16” I think DCA got 6.7” and up around Frederick close to 20

Be real careful please as you are stating that the models performed quite poorly.

I think we need a modest low traveling from near Atlanta and ne toward East of Norfolk . Not worried about Gulf effect on Stu because if it’s that juicy and if it gets involved with that we will be 40 and rain. Can’t be a phase job or transfer either. Will be really tough if it tries to onset between 10am to 5pm as we would need about -20 departure and that’s too tough. But. After dark in March it can still snow big time the entire month when the low is right

If it has the characteristics of a Miller A, organized low pressure moving from GA to off mid Atlantic coast then that works. Anything else hasn’t and won’t

When I seek such advice, please render it For now cling to your wishes and dependencies and I will continue to not engage in denial. I’ll add the Fact that you concerns be addressed Not to someone who posts real info 3-5 times per day but rather those averaging 40+ and more Every Day.

I’m telling ya. Largest accumulation event of year still looking like could be April

From page 47 First-The numerical models will have enough accuracy that errors will no longer be significant Second-accuracy and resolution producing crisp, clear and complete pictures of the atmosphere at all times Third-By 2025 the power of computers will have increased 100,000X and will clearly resolve the weather for the (DC) area. These writers and contributors were not noobs nor foolishly hopeful. They were up to date and on target with their current situation and where things were headed. What happened? Well one thing we see clearly right here-vigorous defense of status quo. Almost like we are helpless if we try another route. Probably one more entry of where the best and brightest of the time validly thought this science was headed. What happened????

Yeah both our winter outlooks were bad. My temps terrible although snowfall range of 15-22 not as bad as going big

Much like DT but gentler, he is a great discusser

You’ve been stuck at that age since first appearing. But I have grown to love eternally youthful Ji **d. I value your veteraness so I will ask even though the answer I think I know Were Ryan’s writings just pie in the sky hopefulness ? Do you believe model predictions or examples were successful this winter? Are you looking forward to the same kind of success rate next winter? Thanks

See you dismiss as “hopeful” You are not qualified to do that. You were about 15 when he wrote it and are not a met nor atmospheric scientist. You are able to provide great detailed discussions with very little forecasting . You are most certainly and ardent model hugger and defender of the failing status quo The abilities you assess us as “not having” are largely because they have not been sought due to defenders of. and monetary concerns about, the preservation of the current operating methods

Page 46 opening statement in collaboration with atmospheric scientists. “By 2025 the data problem for weather prediction will be solved. Global weather prediction models with 1km horizontal resolution will have reached the limits of predictability. Numerical prediction in the 0-2 day time frame will be essentially perfect” Bob Ryan 2002 Almanac as to weather forecasting in 2025 Ryan may have been the best DC ever had. He was No snow crow. When he went big it meant it was gonna snow These people who wrote this were not hopers and dreamers. They saw where things were and what could be. Instead we are still bogged down with what is not working and lately not working with ever increasing inaccuracy . Model huggers have thwarted progress. Ill pull a couple more excerpts but essentially the opening paragraph says it all as to what was correctly and reasonably envisioned vs where we are actually at.

No matter how many 6 paragraph rebuttals are thrown out, we don’t have the necessary predictive tools.

Seen it 35 times since mid December

i think a lot of the drop offs here are those like me who have been active in internet weather for over20 years and originally found great excitement in the details provided and potential for great “coming true” of especially winter time model output. It all over Ryan’s writings as to what appeared to be in place. But it hasn’t happened . Every 5 years or so this board gets a new model enthusiast who tries to take over and run away those who don’t engage in model worship and who don’t contend that they are accurate and effective. Then they go away. Kinda cycling thru that right now . So let me get some excerpts from Ryan’s thoughts and hopes and post them here . If you were 10 -15 when he wrote it might want to zip it and learn

I’m reading Bob Ryan’s 2002 Almanac which has on front cover”Weather Forecasting in 2025”. I will enter some excerpts later it is disheartening to read the great hope for accuracy that he foresaw and hoped for. 90% accuracy day 5 and in. Not even close to reality. I would estimate if the dozen or so things specifically identified as likely occurring by now, about one third have come to fruition. The idea that high tech satellites could get start snd stop times down to one hour and accumulations within 5-10% error margins just hadn’t happened. I sense he felt wholesale technological advancements and revolutions would occur. That failed also

Even they are overwhelmed We did Tug Hill in Feb 2007 and thst was epic lake effect 7+ feet .It was tough going and closed roads white out. This looks bigger