WEATHER53

MJO is but one possible component among many and a new signal gets introduced every year. Plus the effects have changed. Nino and Nina used to be very consistent predictors for 50 years but less so now. AO/NAO still very vital but the rest are largely research in progress

Congrats on that. I made All State band my senior year in HS and it’s real tough competition

Winds DC 15-20 gusting to 35

Analog time frame day a Go and notice how the cold air is coming down from NY State and PA and not rolling off Maine nor plunging down thru ND/SD and rolling eastward where timing of cold air can be a problem

The 23-25th is real . Analogs say so. They got the early Dec one, wrong about 12/22-24 one , mostly got snowcrete correct. Blows the models away .

That date is my last analog date so let’s buckle up. I like the angle of the cold

Wasn’t that the huge El Niño in 98 and things do seem different since about then ?

I grew up in the golden era of 1958-71 and to my memory we skated on the pond every winter except two . Sledded every one at some point Im pretty sure

From 54 to 34 and dew does not rise

I have wondered that if the Gulf Stream has indeed weakened, could that be less attractive now to potential low pressures to move along Atlantic coastline miller A style?

Not really The super fine lines, thread the needle, yadda yadda is the formula for 100 presentation which radically change every 6 hours.

Child I just stated it. I’m in full agreement that 0-11” forecast will be confirmed

Thats the design. 0-11” forecasted and couple posters asked me well what’s my prediction and my prediction is the 0-11” model output will verify. That’s what its all about anyway

Ole misrepresentation

I think DCA just finished 9th longest

Somewhere between 0 to 11 is what the tools say

I’ve seen you and handsome you are but model drawing quality????

I missed the banning thing so can I get the skinny on how we list a great poster ?

37 for the high 33.1 currently

I know that many do enjoy the 10+ I don’t think it’s actual “tracking” because it’s mostly a mirage . So many times it’s just herky jerky every 6 hours and then zip and rarely a solid hit that the”agony of defeat” wiped away the thrills of victory many years ago

He thinks he’s cute when doing it plus already an identified back stabber

Thanks. I would say if things really can’t be forecasted with some normal scientific precision standards beyond X number of days then why do it? I know why but it brings out the protect the supply chest thumpers of all sorts. It’s because 268 hour snow monsters Sell. There is a myth that NOAA/NWS are “above all that” Do what can be done and take a broader view approach. That one set of graphs where lines are running everywhere is like reading the human genome chart Weather forecasting needs new blood with new ideas.

This is a big admission that a number should heed. Even 5 days out waffles all over the place but the 10+ day stuff is absolute chicanery

The melancholy afflicted always have to play their despondent hand

The birthing grounds of greatness