MNstorms

Well that's an interesting decrease in chances.

NAM isn't even close to agreement with other models for Monday.

Looking more like a June weather pattern than a May one over the northern plains. There was an area highlight for Sunday but that was taken off today. Jet stream is really constant with trough ejections. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the overall upper pattern amplifies significantly on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday as western CONUS troughing deepens and upper ridging along the MS Valley builds. Position of the upper trough leads to deep southwesterly flow aloft across the Plains. At the same time, strong moisture advection will occur, with mid 60s dewpoints reaching eastern KS by D4/Sunday and into much of IA by D5/Monday. By D6/Tuesday, a large area of 70+ dewpoints may exist from the Arklatex north into IA. This low-level moisture, coupled with the EML fostered by the deep southwesterly flow aloft, is forecast to result in strong instability across at least some portion of the Plains and/or Upper/Mid MS Valley from D4/Sunday through at least D6/Tuesday. The somewhat stagnant upper pattern and lack of progressive surface features leads to dearth of forcing for ascent for D4/Sunday, leading to predictability issues. Some elevated thunderstorms are possible across the northern Plains, but uncertainty on location and overall severity merit precluding any outlook areas. Somewhat more discernible/predictable surface features are expected on D5/Monday, with a front moving into the upper MS Valley. Given the forecast buoyancy and shear, any storms that do develop will likely be severe. Some severe potential may persist across the Upper/Mid MS Valley on D6/Tuesday, but guidance varies crucially on the position of various surface features, limiting predictability. Additionally, guidance indicates that upper ridging will build west across more of the Plains on D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday, likely shifting the potential for storms back west towards the High Plains.

Wow

Seminole circulation is over a mile wide. Jeez.

Lots of supercells becoming organized. Not good.

Here's KWTV stream

Reed Timmer has a tornado near Dumont TX. Not even tornado warned yet.

SPC now has these areas highlighted. On Saturday, the models are in better agreement, with a narrow corridor of moisture returning northward into the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible along the western edge and on the northern end of the stronger instability, in parts of central and eastern Nebraska Saturday evening. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for a severe threat. But there is considerable spatial uncertainty and the magnitude of moisture return is questionable. For this reason, will hold off on a 15 percent contour at this time. Model differences increase on Sunday, with some solutions moving a shortwave trough across the central and northern Plains, while others maintain southwest mid-level flow in that same area. The models are in better agreement concerning moisture return, with a moist and unstable airmass in place by afternoon from northeast Oklahoma into north-central Missouri. Under that scenario, severe storm development would be likely along the western edge and at the north end of the stronger instability. But that would be dependent upon the timing of a shortwave trough. Due to the magnitude of instability that is forecast and potential for a shortwave trough to impact the region, a 15 percent contour is added for parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley for Sunday. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, the models are again in reasonable agreement concerning moisture return in the central U.S., with the richest airmass of the season advecting northward into parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. With a potential for strong instability, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, and a shortwave trough in southwest mid-level flow, will add a 15 percent area also for Monday over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The same potential is forecast on Tuesday by some models solutions, but due to increased uncertainty on Day 8 at the furthest out range, will hold off on adding a severe threat area.

Um ok GFS calm down. Last GDPS run is agreeing more with the GFS as well that next week may be interesting.

Yeah just a bit unstable Well the big storm the HRRR has around Oklahoma City is forming near Binger.

Well that sucks.

Well okay then HRRR. 10-15F warming than the NAM 3k and 5-10F higher dew points makes Saturday look interesting but it's far out. EDIT: RAP is closer to the HRRR as well.

Delete the bottom two pictures. Those are reposts from December that people are trying to scare people with.

Yeah this makes no sense to me. Maybe some straight line winds in the middle of the storm. No couplet at all. It's close enough to the radar that you would see a tornado clearly.

Apparently this. Doesn't look quiet right to me.

Tornado heading towards Gilmore City Iowa

Why can I suddenly just upload 727 kB? Can't do anything with that.

First tornado warning with the southern storms

5,000,000 people in the San Antonio to Austin areas. Not a great spot tornadoes to possibly form.

WHAT

Not buying the severe threat on Wednesday yet. GFS and NAM have been terrible at reading the snow depth. I'll doubt the 8-12'' of snow will melt by Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota hasn't had severe weather in December and the latest tornado is November 16.

May barely gone south

I see that now, the Kentucky cell is moving towards Fort Knox, Kentucky so thought he meant that.

You mean Kentucky?