MNstorms

Sunday Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely over Nebraska northeastward into Minnesota on Sunday and Sunday night. Significant severe weather including very large hail and hurricane-force gusts are possible with the strongest storms. Several tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... The exit region of a powerful, cyclonically curved upper jet is forecast to overspread the central High Plains into the mid MO Valley during the period as a large-scale mid-level trough encompasses the West. A mid-level anticyclone will reside over the Carolinas. In the low levels, a surface front perhaps augmented by convection is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest southwestward to a triple point near the northwest KS/NE border. A dryline will extend southward into the southern Great Plains. ...Central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... A strong to severe thunderstorm cluster may be ongoing early Sunday morning over parts of the eastern Dakotas where strong 850 mb theta-e advection is forecast. Isolated hail/wind would be the primary threats with this elevated activity. Farther south, strong southerly flow will aid in moisture transport northward into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Strong heating, contributing to evapotranspiration beneath a stout capping inversion associated with an elevated mixed layer, will yield a very unstable airmass (3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) over parts of NE northeastward into adjacent SD/IA/MN. Forecast soundings show some low-level veering and strengthening of winds with height, strongly supporting supercells with initial storm development during the late afternoon/early evening. Large to very large hail is likely with the more intense supercells. Tornadoes are also possible, especially in warm-sector areas early on where temperature-dewpoint depressions are not too large (less than 20 deg F). An evolution towards clusters is expected during the evening as a central Great Plains LLJ intensifies. A lingering threat for hail/wind will probably continue through the evening into the overnight.

I guess this season is going to be the one that keeps on giving in the Dakotas and Minnesota.

oof

I just had nickel size hail.

And there it is. 4th tornado watch is the 2nd most since at least 2006 for me and it's only May.

I would think the watch would come any minute now with cells popping and cumulus clouds for awhile now.

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon along a warm front near the Iowa/Minnesota border. These storms would be capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours. DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift northward near the Iowa/Minnesota border. Dewpoints near the boundary are generally in the low 60s F. A narrow corridor of low/mid 60s F dewpoints exists in southwestern Iowa with dewpoints in parts of central/eastern Iowa mixing out into the upper 50s F. With an MCV currently in southern/central Missouri, the degree and quality of moisture return is uncertain with eastward extent. The KOAX/KFSD VWP have sampled the 35-40 kts 850 mb winds that are helping to increase low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front. Objective mesoanalysis is showing near 400 m2/s2 effective SRH right along the boundary in northwest Iowa. Storms that form along and interact favorably with the boundary will be capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail. Should any storms move north of the boundary, the tornado threat would be less, but large/very-large hail would remain possible. Though low-level shear/SRH would suggest the potential for a strong tornado, the continued decrease in dewpoints within western/central Iowa makes this a low-probability scenario. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours.

NAM 3k is going all out. HRRR still mixing dew points like usual.

Tomorrow looks like it might have a small window.

Um ok then.

Watch expanded. This is my 3rd of the year. More than the last two years combined and it's only May 12th.

Also moving 95 mph

This seems similar to December 15, 2021. When else was there storms moving 90mph? The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Lac qui Parle County in west central Minnesota... Central Chippewa County in west central Minnesota... Yellow Medicine County in west central Minnesota... Southwestern Swift County in west central Minnesota... * Until 630 PM CDT. * At 540 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Hayti to near Toronto to near Pipestone, moving north at 90 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR CANBY AND MADISON. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages.

Classic hodograph in Minneapolis.

Aberdeen, SD sounding

120mph+ 3,300 feet up.

Early convection has seems to keep the warm front south, even moving it more south. I don't know if that was expected.

So many warnings so far for non existent rotation but not for this.

I'm shocked they didn't postpone the game before the start. Not safe to send people back out onto the road.

Highest possible wind speed so far. I've only ever seen 80+ in 2008.

Interesting that they are issuing tornado warnings well ahead of the line.

Well I'm centered in this. SUMMARY...The threat of severe thunderstorms including tornadoes appears to be increasing across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis continues to show a surface low associated with a well-defined MCV over southeast SD. A warm front extends eastward from the low along the MN/IA border. Relatively strong heating has been occurring along and north of the warm front over southern MN, where backed low-level winds and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s are resulting in a very favorable environment for supercell development. Recent CAM and WoFS solutions also indicate this potential. A compact low-level jet is expected to strengthen in the next few hours in this area as well, enhancing low-level shear and suggesting a heightened risk for a few tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds would also be possible with storms along/north of the warm front. Farther west, radar suggests a developing bowing complex over Murray/Cottonwood/Nobles/Jackson counties MN. This activity will likely accelerate eastward along the warm front during the next 2-3 hours, posing an enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts and transient QLCS spinups.

Multiple tornado warnings now.

Tornado watch expanded.

SUMMARY...A severe hail, wind, and tornado risk persist mainly from southeast South Dakota into southwest Minnesota. Hail may eventually occur north of the tornado watch. DISCUSSION...An MCV continues to move rapidly north, now crossing the MO River out of northeast NE, with arcing line of storms extending southeastward along the valley. Meanwhile, other storms currently extend from west of FSD north and eastward into southwest MN near the warm front. Surface observations show a cool boundary layer along the warm front, which has recently become reinforced by outflows. In addition, dewpoints continue to fall in the well-mixed air across IA. The result is a relatively narrow zone of tornado potential over the next few hours, from southeast SD eastward along the front into southern MN. Any supercells in this zone may produce a brief tornado, but meridional flow aloft near the MCV may push cells quickly north of the boundary where they will become elevated.