Carvers Gap

And one last note, the TN Valley has always been home to extreme weather, especially flooding and drought. TVA has steadied that quite a bit, but it was rough prior to TVA. There have generally been wild swings in TN for at least the last 150 years. Our latitude is almost always problematic. We live in the subtropics and that is always important to remember.

7-10 days of winter is actually very normal for this area (not higher elevations). The record snow in Knoxville this year and record number of snow (4"+) w/ snow on the ground is telling. As for backloaded, it was close. If the storm had arrive about a week later, that would have been backloaded. Technically, it hit right in the middle of met winter. The main part of winter came during mid-January which is prime climatology. Many places at lower elevations are at or above snow norms. When we get a really severe cold outbreak like that, winter will often end - even if December. That has happened more times than I can count. The only surprise to me this winter was the anomalous slp in the GOA which brought the monster chinook to Canada during December. That probably delayed the cold about 1-2 weeks after Christmas. February has been warm, but the Nino really has collapsed, or is collapsing. Plus, we could still see more snow. We have about 4 more weeks where it can snow in the valleys(increasingly problematic w/ each passing week). I don't really see anything on the horizon right now, but there are some decent windows. As for predictability....it is always tough, but lean on ENSO and you will often be right. I learned that from our mets here.. I managed to get 3/3 for DJF temps last winter. This winter I have 2 out of 3 for DJM - Feb will obviously bust. That is far above what I am normally capable of in terms of temps. Normally, I am much, much worse than that. It really is a crapshoot. I share that to say that predictability has been not bad. Next winter is an entirely different animal in terms of predictability - going to see some seasonal busts next winter IMHO. One other surprise is that the mountains/foothills didn't get more snow, but....that may also get rectified at least for the mountains. There were some BIG late season snows in the mountains during the 90s. One thing to note, there were some El Nino winter analogs which were not good. Some were really good. This winter was kind of a mix of the two. So, really having a historic snowstorm for many areas equates to a good winter for me. I do think next winter will see continued bouts of severe cold, especially middle and west. The fact middle and west scored during a Nino is a HUGE bonus.

Tropical activity can definitely mute temps. I think we might see some early tropical activity, a lulll, and then a tropical activity to end the heat during.....mid-late October. I would guess Nov-Dec would be seasonal to BN for temps before the Jan-Feb torch next winter. Though, I will say that if Nina is weak....it could be colder. I am still a bit torn on next winter. The QBO may be set to drop during later winter.

The 12z GFS continues to get colder.

The second half of summer (or maybe all of it) and all of fall could have significantly above normal temps. In NE TN, drought can be excessive during La Niña. Sometimes middle and western areas will dodge that drought and get the opposite. Hot and dry as the summer progresses and into fall. As for spring, I think we see a Nino hangover with rainy and cloudy conditions for the first half of it w some sharp cold snaps - almost winter like at times. Depending on when the atmosphere responds to the likely Niña, will depend on when it flips to the furnace - could be May or could be late June or even early July. You will know it when u see it.

So you are saying that you don't like the cold rain ULL version? j/k LOL

Decent little leap year anafront on the 18z GFS. It has been flirting with that for several runs. The gfs has had some strong cold fronts during the past 4-6 runs of that model. Reminds me very much of models finding the Jan cold shot.

I want no part of severe wx. Very destructive to people's lives. I know many follow it, and I find no fault with that.

Maybe the first 9-10 days of March are warm, but sitting in the middle of week three on modeling (early week 2 of March) is a cold snap. Have to remember that February is a shortened month. 23 days on a Weeklies run can be fairly accurate - just speaking of longwave patterns. That fits w/ the MJO rotation above. This is one of these years where I just think winter is not quite done. I could easily be wrong. For those new to the area, March can be good. It just hasn't been lately. To me, it kind of equates to early December - it can be good but more often than not it isn't. The Weeklies have not been super reliable of late, but the progression makes sense. It is almost like the Feb pattern has been delayed a bit. And the 30 day map below is with the first 9 days warm.... Now, the NAO has been woefully hard to predict this winter, and it normally is. It often won't give a lot of lead time when it sets up. Can we get the elusive double block, and have it hook over the top? Maybe, but this winter this look has only verified 1 out of 3 times it has been shown at this range(which isn't terrible for week 3-4 modeling). But that is a winter pattern below. I don't think I need to say this but will. I am fully aware that we are fighting climatology with each, passing day. However, you just never know. Kind of have to watch cold snaps between March 7-15th which to me is the furthest we can really say climatology will allow a snowstorm in the valleys. At some point, we will have a snowy, spring pattern.

I think about the time we all think it is spring and are happy with the temps....gonna be some wicked cold temps. I can see a signal during week 4 which shows that, but during shoulder season, those cold shots can be a mirage. SSW cold dumps West and then heads eastward.

Masters of the Air has been really good. There was a 75% casualty rate for the 100th. 50% of our WW2 airmen never made it home. I cannot imagine getting into a plane, dealing w/ -40 to -60F temps, being shot at, maybe bailing out of a plane pulling crazy Gs, and then if you were lucky, limping home in a badly beat-up Fortress and changing gears mentally to exist in a place that had no idea what type of tempest you had been in just 4-5 hours earlier. Courage doesn't begin to describe what they did. I saw a guy pumping gas w/ a ww2 veteran license place last weekend. Just doing the math, he was probably 95+ years old. He looked every bit of it, but he pumped his own gas in his truck, hopped into the driver's seat, and sped off down the road...I couldn't keep up.

As we begin to make the slow, steady climb towards spring, it is very important to understand that the MJO phases for "what is cold"....they change when we hit March. We want to stay out of 6-7-8. Very sharp cold shot showing-up right around the 25th. So two cold fronts, 17/18th and the 25th. I follow cold fronts during spring, because if there is going to be mischief...that is when it shows up.

We get the 12z GFS southeast jog, and then we get this.... There will be no weather posts next July from me. The weather sure looks nice in Pasadena. Not too bad today here either with the exception of the wind.

You are just gonna have to look out your back window and see it up the road if that verfies!

When we need it most...it is gonna head to Akron! LOL.

The 12z Euro has now found the 24-25th cold front. It also has the rain/snow line over TRI for Friday night into Saturday. Would not be surprised to see WWAs posted with that. The GFS has the same trend, but was mainly over SW VA. Operationals have definitely trended colder yet again. No idea if that holds. This is VERY similar to what happened in early January.

The 12z GFS has much more eastern trough yet again this run through 330. A ridge rolls through, but interesting. The GFS would likely pick up on this first.

The MJO appears to be "potentially" getting ready to take the tour of the cold phases. If it does, this is a monumental bust of the CPC MJO plots which were trying to go back into the warm phases without going into cold phases. This has occurred all winter - CPC plots trying to skip either the cold or warm phases. I am not sure if the CPC plots are just representative of modeling bias...IDK. I think that is why we are seeing operational modeling find cold fronts that were not present 3-4 days ago.

Additionally, the 6z GFS has light snow over TRI Saturday morning (less than an inch of snow). My guess is higher elevations such as the Plateau and Apps see some light accumulations, and MRX has a short discussion about that this morning in their disco.

This morning, the 6z GFS and 0z CMC are picking up a fairly strong cold front around the 24-25th. Looks like a ridge rolls through just prior to that. Let's see if that holds. Decent look.

LOL. You know it! You know, that does look like that could be the Bays reservoir. I drove over that section of I-26 about 3:45. I don't remember anything unusual. On the other hand, I was trying not to hit the potholes on the bridge or get hit. For those of you who don't know, I-26 from Kingsport to Johnson City is like the autobahn in German. Better be on your toes...rubbin is racing on that section.

For the KY/VA/ TN border....Saturday can't be ruled out if a last minute SE trend takes place.

I am liking the 25th as a window to watch.

I wonder if there was some low level moisture hitting the mountain at a right angle. Seems odd to see it on the upwind side of the river. I was off the forum this afternoon, and hate I missed it....literally was right over the house. Does that feature count as an elk?

You always find interesting stuff. I think I can see that view out my back window every day.