Carvers Gap

We had sleet here a minute ago. RadarScope has frozen precip over portions of the TRI region.

Reports of light snow in Wise and Tazewll, VA, at this hour.

Winter Weather Advisories are posted for the Apps.

Tornado Warning TNC013-151-022230- /O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0002.240402T2144Z-240402T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Morristown TN 544 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Campbell County in east Tennessee... Southeastern Scott County in east Tennessee... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 543 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Huntsville, or 11 miles southeast of Oneida, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Campbell and southeastern Scott Counties, including the following locations... Jellico, Elk Valley, Indian Mountain State Park, Fincastle, Royal Blue, White Oak, Norma, and Caryville. This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 138 and 161. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Any thoughts on the recent update by MRX?

Snow flurries/showers on my point and click for Thursday....no joke.

I bet we see some changes w/ that set-up. I have no idea what!

The PV is spinning in the opposite direction of normal. https://www.space.com/earth-polar-vortex-spinning-backwards-above-arctic-reversal-event?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=space.com&fbclid=IwAR0suogUmLsbHb98dCeLpcitxDzb5WMWimd91WXvLsnPbzOnCIpiooI8CB8

What a beautiful day.

The 12z GFS has been cooking something up around 240...GEM has that to some extent. Cold shot w/ various waves. Holston is on top of it as usual! Worth watching at least for the mountains of E TN.

That is the year. I must have not been reading closely!!! Once we get over 50, all posts look new anyway! LOL j/k - sorta not. I don't know that we actually got full leaf coverage that year in NE TN. The trough looks over the eastern half of the country on the 12z GFS. The main axis looks over the NE, and fairly cool/progressive here. If that thing were to buckle, look out....

For now......it looks like the worst of the cold is over the Northeast. If a storm were to deepen along the Coast(even if it doesn't snow here), that would be a concern. The last two weeks of March have to be watched for cold. Overall, the Weeklies last night were much warmer for April. Those late season cold snaps are tough to predict....just takes one really strong cold front on the heels of a cutter or coastal along w/ some clear nights, and we could get a prolonged freeze even during a warm spell. Several years ago, I. remember the leaves on the trees up here getting bitten and falling off during maybe May?

Below is what the Euro Weeklies have been advertising for 3-4 weeks. This is now on the Canadian ensemble. That is West coast blocking connecting to Greenland blocking. This has been an error for most of the winter with the exception being mid-January. Let's see if this verifies.

And yes, I think we tend to see SSWs head to eastern North America during spring.

We really want to hang on to cooler weather for as long as possible w/ La Nina lurking. It has been my experience that if things warm-up during spring(during La Nina years), the summers are long and brutal. I don't see a long period of misery....more like cool shots, rain at times, and a strong cold shot or two. There is certainly a scenario there where it gets quite cold as ensembles being cold at this range can sometimes translate to much colder. Right now the cycle is....warm followed by step down to seasonal followed by step down to bitterly cold. Do we repeat that cycle one more time? IDK. But, I do think we are seeing a legitimate pattern change coming up w/ more troughing at least making its way eastward. The Mountain West is piling up snow, and they are going to need every bit of that water content.

Pretty substantial cool down coming up in the d10+ and moving forward w/ time.

If you look at the 18z, you can see the slp crash into the Ohio Valley and a secondary form east of the Apps. Go look at those maps in the Feb thread, and that is what it looks like w/ one notable exception...the lee side stalls and doesn't progress northeastward very quickly at all. But the 18z GFS has that wonky setup....just too far out there to take seriously at this point. The 18z would put 1'+ above 5,000' in the Apps.

For the E TN mountains, I had a post in the Feb thread w/ the Pisgah and Spring Break storms. Those setups usually involve some sort of cutter into the Ohio Valley and a stalled, secondary lee side slp(sort of an odd Miller B). I am not saying that is what happens, but that is one of two set-ups that I look for. The other setup is a Miller A. The first scenario normally doesn't happen during winter, but stalled lows during spring are fairly common in the SE. They can occur as bowling balls or a lee side low that loses its steering current. The GFS has flirted w/ the first setup on a few runs. Kind of fun to track just for kicks and giggles.

I just think modeling is sensing potential...could be something, could be absolutely nothing. One of the interesting things about spring storms(if they arrive at night), is they will often over perform in NE TN. The Euro control LR extend(maybe yesterday or day before) had had something similar in that time frame as well. My guess is there is a piece of energy up stream that is potentially going to interact w/ a cold front. Timing is everything at that point. The best storms are often spotted at very long range...but I wouldn't say modeling has "spotted" anything quite yet.

18z GFS is not benign......some late season bonus runs by the American model today.

The 6z GFS (fantasy land) produces fairly significant winter storm 1'+ (12-17" of snow in some locals)for portions of the forum area. I won't add much more than that as it is pretty far out there, but that is right around the pattern change time frame, and worth at least a sideways glance from time to time.

Best I can tell is that the pattern at 500 is set to flip around St Patrick's Day. We are gonna wish we had that pattern a month ago I think. We are kind of in that time frame where it missed last month, so proceed with caution. Looks cold. The 18z GFS tonight had a dusting to 2" of snow over the eastern half at lower elevations and up to 4-5" lollipops on the Plateau at LR.

Still a ways out there, but a pretty significant pattern change is now on d14-16 of global ensembles (not just LR ext models). To be fair, this is where it got last time, and it flipped warm. So, just that caveat. Overall though, that is a pretty cold look. I doubt that means measurable snow for many of us, but wouldn't surprise me to see some late season frozen precip in the air and maybe a dusting. Higher elevations have a legit chance at late season mischief if that is correct - anything above 2500'.

I probably have them stored somewhere. It'll bounce around at this range. Seems like it did pretty well, though, during those years. It has a warm bias, but its 500 maps are generally about as reliable as one can get at that range. Still a very long way to go.

The one bug across most modeling of late is that weeks 3-4 have been too cold. I am not sure if that is due to an outdated analog package or if the IO/MC is wrecking havoc by firing unexpectedly. That is a recent bug which showed up in LR ext modeling during mid Jan(forecast for Feb). Honestly, this is also spring and we are in an ENSO transition....spitballing that is prob part of recent model inconsistency. Any transition caused model issues - seasonal, ENSO, NAO, etc. I still think BN temps/seasonal for next Dec. Then, I think above for the rest of next winter JFM. If the Cansips is ever cold during winter, reality will often verify colder. Hot and dry for mid-late summer and early fall...then flip.