Mailman

Looking like thundersnow down in Keyser, WV.

Mesoscale Discussion 0280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...West Virginia into far eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 162213Z - 170215Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snow will spread north/northeast in the coming hours. Snowfall rates may locally increase to 1-2 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar mosaics depict transient bands of moderate to heavy snowfall within a broader precipitation shield across the central Appalachians/upper OH River Valley. Surface observations under the heavier bands have been reporting periods of visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile. A broad swath of moderate snowfall will be maintained through the evening as ascent within the left-exit region of a 120 knot 500 mb jet continues to shift northeast. Increasing 850-700 mb frontogenesis will continue to overspread the upper OH Valley and provide more focused mesoscale ascent favorable for focused snow banding and periods of heavy snowfall rates. Although the strongest lift will likely be focused within the 850-700 mb layer, ascent through 500 mb will include a roughly 100 mb-deep dendritic growth zone. This will also help maintain moderate to heavy snowfall rates as surface temperatures fall below freezing within the post-frontal air mass. Based on latest guidance, snowfall rates over 1 inch/hour appear likely and may periodically be as high as 2 inches/hour across portions of PA and within the higher terrain of the Appalachians later this evening. ..Moore.. 03/16/2026

Mesoscale Discussion 0167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Areas affected...eastern Ohio...northwestern West Virginia...western Pennsylvania...southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071757Z - 072000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development may become capable of producing marginally severe hail, increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps accompanied by potential for a couple of tornadoes by 3-5 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer layer moisture return across the upper Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region is ongoing, but remains somewhat modest with surface dew points increasing through the mid/upper 50s. However warming and mixing with continuing insolation is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles with weak to modest CAPE increasing in excess of 500 J/kg, beneath southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow increasing to near 50 kt. Deepening convective development now appears underway along and discretely ahead of a convectively generated pre-cold frontal surface boundary now advancing across central into eastern Ohio. As this continues into the Allegheny Plateau through 21-22Z, developing thunderstorm activity appears likely to intensify and organize. This may include a few evolving supercell structures within and ahead of an evolving line, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and damaging wind gusts. With surface winds generally veered to a fairly prominent westerly component, the degree to which low-level hodographs will become supportive of tornadic potential remains unclear, particularly given the still sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads. However, as 850 mb winds strengthen to 50+ kt across eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania, various model derived output suggests that profiles could become locally conducive to a supercell tornado threat by late afternoon. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/07/2026

Snowing here, also.

47% chance of 4" / 31% of 6", according to PBZ. So maybe a surprise for some? Didn't even realize I was under an advisory for 2-5".

Once we get to March 1st, I start rooting for highs in the 70s.

Didn't last more than 10 minutes, but it was pretty good. Got a streamer heading in this direction. See how that ends up.

Back in the game for Tuesday-Wednesday on GFS.

A little mid-week action upcoming, huh?

Probably get a 3" report from Monessen from it.

Appears we're in it for the long haul.

Still shocked I only had 5 minutes of mixed precipitation.

9" or so. Five minutes of freezing rain. Power stayed on. Storm gets a from me.

That was a quick hitter.

Coming down good again.