Ottawa Blizzard

It's looking like the forecast put out by Canada's Weather Network could be in serious trouble. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/canadas-winter-forecast-update-2019-2020-winter-pattern-locks-in-for-january Environment Canada's forecast looks to be on target, though. https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html Amazing how different the two forecasts are.

Hi Don, with regard to The Weather Network's forecast, please see the link below. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/canadas-winter-forecast-update-2019-2020-winter-pattern-locks-in-for-january I think it goes without saying that their forecast is in trouble.

I'm not sure about The Weather Network Don, but Weatherbell seems to have been basing their forecast on the warm water south of Alaska, and how this apparently led to cold in years like 2003, 2014, and 2015. However, it has to be said that, on his blog this morning, Joe Bastardi has drawn attention to the winter of 1936-1937, which apparently also had warm water in the Gulf of Alaska, but ended up with a warm winter in eastern North America, following a colder than average November. Here is a link to that winter's observations in Toronto. https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=1977&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=Toronto&timeframe=2&Day=1&Year=1937&Month=1

Great write-up Don. It's interesting that, up here in Canada, Environment Canada was the only outlet which called for a mild winter. It was against the grain, and raised eyebrows in other weather outlets; The Weather Network called for a much colder than average winter across much of Ontario. It's looking increasingly likely that Environment Canada and the NWS were right, while Canada's Weather Network and Weatherbell Analytics were wrong.

Ouch! Honestly, it's looking like Environment Canada and the NWS may be heading for victory with regard to their call for a warmer than average winter. They were against the grain and Environment Canada's forecast, in particular, raised some eyebrows up here in Canada from other weather outlets.

I have actually been living in Toronto for the past few years, so don't see as much snow as I used to up in Ottawa. That being said, last winter was pretty good, particularly late January and early February. Currently bare ground in Toronto, although, if you can believe it, we have so far seen more snow this winter than we did throughout the entire winter of 2011/2012. November 2019 was the coldest November in Toronto since 1976, and in the top 5 coldest on record. Was in Montreal last weekend and the difference in temperature compared to Toronto was impressive - about 13 degrees Celsius colder in fact - thanks to the northeasterly flow. As for Ottawa, it looks like they're expecting a fair bit of snow this Sunday and Monday, so you should be good for skiing.

Keep hearing different ideas of how January, and indeed the winter, will turn out. Up here in Canada, Environment Canada is calling for a mild winter ,while The Weather Network is calling for a cold winter. Ryan Maue is calling for a warm first half of January while JB is calling for a big flip to cold. Will be interesting to see how it all turns out. I hope this doesn't go the way of 2005-2006 - that winter was originally predicted to be cold only for January to be a torch.

I'd say I was in one of the sweet spots. About 8" of fluffy snow at my place.

The easiest type of snow to shovel too. I'd estimate I received about 7 or 8".

Might make for some nice photo opportunities in a few days time, but perhaps not good for property around the gorge. I recall that back in the mid 90s, the ice boom malfunctioned, a big ice bridge formed, and some of the Maid of the Mist boats were damaged.

I'm wondering if the strong winds will blow some of the ice off of Lake Erie into the Niagara River, creating an ice bridge, despite the ice boom?

Snowing and blowing in Toronto currently.

Certainly a very unusual situation for Toronto to be getting snow while Rochester and Buffalo get rain. It's snowing here and feels like deep winter.

Looks like it has changed back to snow at my place. Hoping for another 2" before it's all said and done. Roads are a total mess. No plows have come by yet.

I heard a report saying that 5" has fallen at the airport.

When do you expect the snow to start up again this evening? 8 PM?

Imagine Montreal after a 16" snowfall.

You know that's an interesting point. People in northern Ontario and, indeed much of the rest of Canada, like to laugh at Toronto when 8-10" of snow causes havoc. The thing is that 8" on a city this size has more impact than a foot on a small town in northern Ontario. More people live in Toronto than in all of the Maritime provinces and northern Ontario put together.

I find Toronto isn't that winter hardened, though. Having lived in both Toronto and Ottawa, I've noticed that Toronto just isn't as ready for this kind of event. If 4" is forecast, people panic. Toronto, for me, is a city that often tries to deny that it's part of a country with a winter climate. There isn't even a winter carnival like in muskoka, Ottawa, Montreal or Quebec City. All festivals tend to be geared towards warm weather. For Toronto, winter is an inconvenience to get through, not a season to embrace and make the best of.

Regardless, have to admit that this is one of the better snow seasons we've had this decade.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

The 18z Canadian is absolute gold for Toronto - would potentially drop 10-12" on the city. Kind of reminds me of February 21-22, 1993.

Have to wonder if this warm-up will be remembered in a similar way to that of mid February 1994. It was followed by a big storm on the 23rd.

It's probably a safe bet that this won't be like December 2013, though?

Yeah. Was stuck on a bus for one hour. Took one hour to get from Scarborough Town Centre to McCowan and Steeles. Just crazy snow out there. Definitely among the best storms we've had since I moved home from Ottawa in 2011. Only the February 2013 storm was better. By the way, where is snowstorms? He usually got hyped about this stuff.