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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Totals from the Euro. If anything looks a little better than last night.
  2. jm1220
    I could see it maybe for S Nassau and SW Suffolk. For the east end it's a question of the blizzard conditions lasting 3 hours or more due to mixing concerns.
  3. jm1220
    Amped is winning out as expected but hopefully we can get a small shift east before start. NYC and LI will probably be warm enough for rain for a time but it will be when the heavy precip is over anyway, so most end up getting about the same amounts, but the highest would be NW where you also get the better ratios.
  4. jm1220
    Should just make it a longer event. I don't expect much accumulation today or anything but it'll set the stage. Models all have this lasting through Tue in some form.
  5. jm1220
    These typically do.
  6. jm1220
    Hopefully that picks up soon. In my time there there (Jan 2015-Nov 2016) was a F1 that went less than a mile from me, decent hail events (best I saw was a golf ball severe event, luckily for me my car was under a canopy), a 80 mph bow echo and numerous other severe/tornado warnings. Anything I experienced on LI severe wise beneath paled in comparison.
  7. jm1220
    I miss the severe weather in Austin when I lived there. How's that been lately? I missed Juno and Jonas on Long Island which was rough enough for me to move back up.
  8. jm1220
    I would think you're in a decent place N of Providence for a while anyway. And I have to think it will end up a little less amped and more the way Miller B's typically turn out than the Euro has in the end.
  9. jm1220
    From my experience these front-enders don't just totally crap out like this even for you guys. It should cool the column enough at least for a few good hours. For the Cape and places like Plymouth sure I guess.
  10. jm1220
    Right, I can see the layout of what it's showing with the min for the CT River valley etc but the amounts to me are just crazy low. I'd bet good money Northborough MA does better than me in a Miller B. Boston I could see the easterly flow and matured low killing after a time.
  11. jm1220
    Yes, I'd have to think that's worth more than the 3" in Boston that map shows.
  12. jm1220
    That has to be too conservative, the PivotalWX and other maps are better. Is this based on Kuchera ratios? (FWIW for my backyard it's not too off from those but also a little conservative, I'll certainly take either).
  13. jm1220
    Yeah that wasn't fun. I think as the CCB pivoted I ended up with 3" or so. One I'd rather forget.
  14. jm1220
    I think they bump up somewhat and perhaps make blizzard warnings for southern Nassau/Suffolk/Twin forks.
  15. jm1220
    I'll certainly take it although the dry slot makes it here along with some rain. Just 50 miles or so SE can make it even more awesome though lol.
  16. jm1220
    No. If this comes together right it can perhaps make it to 20" but the top 3 are all over 2 feet.
  17. jm1220
    Verbatim it would but it would be as the heavy precip pivots away. The 10-1 ratio snow map has me at 14" but the precip total is about 1.7" liquid at the same point, so that would have 0.3" liquid as non snow. For the city the rain adds up to about 0.1". To me that means a very heavy initial snow thump followed by light rain/showers in the dry slot for a time.
  18. jm1220
    12z for comparison. I'm not seeing a big difference. Better snow for the NW crew. I guess more GGEM-like with the max in E PA?
  19. jm1220
    Through 72 on this Euro run
  20. jm1220
    Looks about the same as 18z to me? At 3z Tue if we're all still snow outside of maybe Fire Island and the precip is tapering off I'd call that a win.
  21. jm1220
    COD: Satellite and Radar
  22. jm1220
    :I remember the incredibly heavy snow band that formed like a fist (again I was living in TX then ) as Jonas came in in Jan 2016, something similar probably happens this time as the mid level moist easterly jet cranks up. Let's hope anyway.
  23. jm1220
    Cheers to that!! I have to think that front end 6 hours or so produces for most of you as well even in SE MA.
  24. jm1220
    This isn't the kind of system where most here outside of maybe the far eastern people near I-81 should expect the best amounts. The coastal redevelopment will take the best dynamics with it, but there's still a very nice easterly moist feed that will keep the snow going over PA and make for very nice amounts but not blockbuster. The 12/5/03 storm could be one to look at for you guys where there was still a good snow event in PA despite there being a coastal redevelopment like this.
  25. jm1220
    Cheers to that!
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