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Posts posted by It's Always Sunny
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15 hours ago, jm1220 said:
Looks like a couple of storms are trying to fire near Glen Cove. Any rain here still much needed.
Centerport reported 0.61" with that quick hitting shower last night! Still roughly 3" below normal for the year but that shower alone accounted for nearly 50% of average monthly precip (~1.20"). Next shot at showers coming in on Thursday.
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Glen Cove apparently gusted to 65 mph yesterday with that line of thunderstorms last night. KFRG & KISP reported 34 & 35kts respectively. By the time it reached Huntington it was a thin, quick moving line with some some weaker gusts (maybe gusts 25-30 mph) but then the line re-solidified once it pushed east.
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Surprised there isn't a thread for Long Island, but now we have one.
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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:
Like 6.9ish.
That's what she said.
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They should've included eastern MA in that area too I think they have a good shot at severe storms.
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20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:
MARGINAL RISK TOMORROW!!!!!!!!
WOOOO WOOOOOO
WOOOOO FOOKING HOOO!!!!!!
LET’S GO!!!
About time they upgraded it.
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I worked that day. Looking back on everything, it was a very rare occurrence (1 in every 200 years). Stationary front was slow to lift north however given vertical wind profile, an embedded supercell was able to develop. During the time of development, storm motion vectors (Bunkers) yielded a fairly stationary cell that anchored to the frontal boundary and just spun like a top over FLL for hours.
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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
We are have way through the month....I would hold off on using the SAI.
I'm aware, thanks.
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Updated winter outlook now that October SAI is out, with not much change really. Went cooler for Midwest, Great Lakes, with New England & Mid-Atlantic the same. Use whichever link it's the same content but some have had trouble accessing it in the past. It's not nearly as in-depth as some other people's on this forum since we all have varying levels of free time. Either way, enjoy.
https://weatherchest.weebly.com/home/updated-winter-weather-outlook-2022-2023
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There's some cold signals amongst the models that could usher in cold enough temps to support some snow for parts of northern New England.
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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
West Pacific el nino is modoki el nino...what exactly are you distinguishing?
Anything non east based or basin wide is called modoki per research studies i've read, however I've found enough disparity to create a WP el nino, CP el nino & modoki section. For the modoki section, I classified it as where you have cold-neutral anomalies on both sides of warm pool so I made that a thing of it's own. It's my own categorization so there will certainly be some differences on what others had. Also, mine is based in 1991-2020 climo so I'm sure some of these will change once I begin using the appropriate climo periods. Either way, the west and central/modoki ninos correlate the best to higher snowfall like you have i believe.
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
I am going to develop classification and composite for el nino during the upcoming year, like I have for la nina. East-based el nino is generally more hostile, and I'm sure the data will reveal this.
Yeah I've compiled Nino composites and east is most hostile, however basin wide for KBOS is only 1" more between Nov-Mar. Central & west Ninos correlate with most snowfall for KBOS.
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5 hours ago, dryslot said:
Yes
Do you have separate averages for La Nina vs El Nino or just comprehensive?
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@dryslot this is nicely put together! Does it only go through the 2013-2014 season?
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Ah ok that makes more sense. I saw the link you posted and it appeared to be Ray's original post I was confused. I'll check this out later. Thanks for the share!
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Am I missing something?
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Long Island Weather
in New York City Metro
Posted
Hamptons FTW. A bit overdone by model guidance the day prior, with most spots not eclipsing 0.5".