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Long Island Weather: End of Month Pattern Change & Polar Vortices Explained (longislandwx.blogspot.com)

Related to Irene? If so, I am seeing 5.04" on the 27th.

Dates for August 2011?

Start times have moved up a bit given shift north and more progressive system, so leaning somewhere between 10am-1pm.

ECMWF trended north since yesterday. More in line with GFS now:

High uncertainty (so good chance it will change) but it’s looking like it’ll start sometime in the afternoon.

How things are shaping up for this weekend so far: https://longislandwx.blogspot.com/2023/10/weekend-rain-october-14-15th.html

Ah good catch I’ll fix that. Thank you!

Climatologically, true, but there are always other factors involved. I think coastal regions tend to struggle the most during strong El Niño events.

My preliminary winter outlook: https://longislandwx.blogspot.com/2023/10/preliminary-winter-outlook-2023-2024.html

My preliminary winter outlook: https://longislandwx.blogspot.com/2023/10/preliminary-winter-outlook-2023-2024.html

My preliminary winter outlook: https://longislandwx.blogspot.com/2023/10/preliminary-winter-outlook-2023-2024.html

I updated my my subjective ENSO analyses on my site. I'm still in the process of updating some of the climo datasets I use to generate composites but it'll have minimal effect. https://weatherchest.weebly.com/ep-el-nintildeo.html

I updated my my subjective ENSO analyses on my site. I'm still in the process of updating some of the climo datasets I use to generate composites but it'll have minimal effect. I added ISP snowfall history for reference. https://weatherchest.weebly.com/ep-el-nintildeo.html

36-hour Totals posted below. It was crazy here yesterday with roadways closed due to poor drainage and the gutters that are on the side of some inclined streets that feed into the main drain at lower elevations reminded me of white water river rapids. This water was absolutely gushing. I've never seen anything like it. You would've thought a water line burst with how strong the flow of water was.

I agree about this weekend's storm being meh considering it moves inland, gets sheared and we're left with its remnants. ECMWF on the other hand keeps it riding mainly along the coast, resulting in higher rain totals. It's kind of funny how much uncertainty remains considering it's only a couple days out.

Some good rain totals across Long Island since last evening. Lots of locations reporting above (or at least near) 1".

I think we'll get above average snowfall, but not the least influenced by the Farmer's Almanac. There will be many different dynamics in play, but foundationally we are looking at a strengthening, east based El Nino. The only composite that I have recorded that meets that criteria is 1952-1953 which ended up finishing with above normal snowfall for much of the Northeast U.S. I'm sure others will chime in that additional years meet that criteria but nonetheless I think signals will point to an active winter. Time allowing, I would like to put out a seasonal forecast to see how it compares this this analog. NYC reported between 13-15" of snowfall that winter.

Islip & Farmingdale hit 90F today. Warmest September temps since 2018!

Pattern change on the way later this week: https://longislandwx.blogspot.com/2023/09/northeast-us-pattern-change.html

Brief cool down on the way next week...will be the first time most of Long Island (and NYC for that matter) drop below 60F since June 22nd.

Histogram of dew points YTD for ISP...definitely muggier than normal:

Hell of a light show!

Yeah it’s an interesting microclimate feature for sure. I’m surprised we got more rain here a few days ago with that little cell compared to this event. On a separate note, just got a good downpour here a short time ago.

Half of LI upgraded to a Slight tomorrow: