NeffsvilleWx

Definitely feels tropical here. 73º with a dewpoint of 72.6º. It's been breezy all day but nothing noteworthy. Max gust so far is 25 kts .

Also worth nothing, Euro maintains intensity. No further strengthening.

Fun fact: If this tracks further north than most models show and makes landfall in Brevard, it'll be the first tropical system to do so since Barry in 1983. Lots of fringes, not so many direct hits here.

Brevard county schools are now closed tomorrow and Thursday.

You're just missing the Artemis launch! Being a recent transplant, I don't have any experience with WDW and storms. But I hope they stay open and crowd size is reduced for your sake. Crowds are easily the worst part of Disney and I consider myself fortunate that neither of my kids are really into it.

Banter thread:

I'm worried that a lot of people here on the Space Coast are going to be majorly unprepared for Nicole.

Not a 1:1 translation. An initialization error will have ripple effects downstream that can translate to significantly different -- sometimes extreme -- outcomes when compared to properly initialized models.

Submitted a LSR for the 50+ gusts earlier. Looks like Ian's about wraped up for those of us south of the Cape. Definitely going to break personal wind run record today.

Ah, forgive me, Lord Stanton. While I fear it may be too late for me, I pray that you take mercy on my family for disrupting your personal aggregation of information. GMAFB and get over yourself. Make a folder of links in your browser like the rest of us. Or, better yet, get off AmWx, learn some html, and put your own site together. It isn't difficult. Also, I'd caution against using social media met hurricane commentary from a broadcast met in Bumfuck, Alaska for anything other than entertainment (No offense meant to any mets, here. Just, being a met != being a tropical expert )

873 posts and a 5 year old account make me doubt that this was the process you used to find this thread. No one... I mean absolutely no one... should be using social media to make decisions. We have an entire agency devoted to providing that information. This place is for the average person to discuss the weather, it's impacts, and related topics. It so happens that a few mets have nothing better to do with their time and like to join in, too. It gets off topic at times. Cope. No one is forcing you to be here. Imagine complaining about "dirtying" up a thread while.... being guilty of the same.

Getting the worst winds of the storm right now. 20g50

The real question is why 2 public facing data products provide 2 different possibilities at the same time -- one product says center of circulation of a major could be directly overhead (and has warned of that possibility for a week), the other says expect tropical storm conditions, you're not getting a direct hit. But that's a discussion for the banter thread.

Clocked the highest gust so far IMBY - 36 mph @ 12:15.

I'm not advocating evacuating the entire cone. If someone lives within expected storm surge elevation and is sufficiently close enough to the coast for it to be possible, AND they're within the statistically likely area of landfall as outlined by historical data analysis (ie the "cone") -- then they should be warned at 36 hours out. That's all I'm saying. There's no reason for one public facing data product to say "you're in danger" and another product to say "you're probably ok." Not when the stakes are so high. Surely we can agree on that, at least.

Communicating risk is a huge part of it. I'm not saying this to be a smartass -- do you have any hard data or studies to support this? Genuinely curious. My opinion and experience (which doesn't mean a thing) is that the majority of people will react reasonably given they understand the situation they're facing, and the outliers will always do whatever they want, they're effectively unreachable. But I'm absolutely open to challenging and changing that position if warranted.

That happens regardless though. People are incredibly ignorant when it comes to weather, statistics, and probability.

And yet, someone (or some group, or some algorithm) within NHC sniffed out this probability from the very beginning. I'm not going to pretend to know anything about how mets or the NHC does things, but from my admittedly simplistic view and experience as a layperson, I think the easiest and most effective solution would be to hurricane warn any coastal area within the cone at T-36 hours of landfall.

But the actual landfall point was always in the cone. From day 1. It's like people don't understand that the "cone" represents only the potential path of the eye. Really, if one is in the cone or within the radius of the eye outside of the cone, preparations for an eyewall strike should be taken. And if they're within the radius of the hurricane force winds outside of the cone, then prepare for hurricane force winds. Likewise for TS force winds.

Just want to share the NWS 5 day path archive because it perfectly captures just how "good" the NHC was with Ian's track. The actual landfall point was in the cone from day 1. Anyone that wants to blame the NWS/NHC for their lack of preparedness is just looking for a scapegoat. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Recorded a low pressure IMBY of 984 at 5:46 am. Tracked pretty close to us. max recorded wind here last night was 30 - though it was probably a bit more because of nonideal siting. 4.5” of rain from Ian. have some sticks and palm fronds to clean up but nothing else. Made it through rather unscathed.

Got paid to relocate to the Fl coast for work. Beats driving to Lewes when I want to do some inshore/surf fishing, don't have to deal with snow, and I can watch rockets launch from my driveway. Wasn't a hard decision Still adjusting to the attenuated seasons -- Spring and Fall are really just "less summer" but winter is downright gorgeous. And the weather tracking is different, too. For instance, I'm watching Ian make a beeline to my backyard, or in the vicinity thereof. Currently under a hurricane warning with worst case being cat 1 or cat 2 winds. But we've got shutters, a whole home generator, and a block home built to post-Andrew code. Nothing really to worry about for this one.

Same. I'm on the mainland adjacent to Patrick SFB. Forecast is now 40-60 gusting 80 but hurricane warning advisory includes potential up to 110. Right now, though, it's dead calm. No rain and winds 0g1.

They have...