AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Feb 10-28 Stratosphere warming to March

You dont have frost?

Nov-Feb 2017-2018 will finish the greatest +500mb in the Arctic Circle on record, significantly above number 2.

It's really hard to get a drought here because we average like 4" per month. You would need something like 10/40 potentials to hit

? Check out the images on NASA. Not only have 2015-2016-2017 been substantially warm but it looks like we will go ice free in 10 years just by following basic trend lines Also of note is arctic 500mb heights this Winter through Nov 1 - Feb 5 have been greater than any year since 2013, and substantially warmer than 2015-2016-2017 Winters. I would say just by going by basic probability there is a >50% chance that this Summer is the lowest arctic ice to date

subsurface in a switch to El Nino is usually different by now.. it's backbuilding west meaning the 5-month ONI classification will likely be hit

Pretty solid match to what's happening, PV establishing over Canada

Average snowfall is 50-65%. We've had arctic blocking all winter. +PNA persistent through the Winter is our best pattern but everything in the northern hemisphere is +500mb. It's moved north 50-150 miles pretty quickly. Snowfall on the ground days is even lower. (I wrote NOAA a letter about this and all I got in response was a system-update on their end).

The stuff here is impressive and makes me think this pattern change is favorable to above average Spring.

Yo the 18z gfs is not wet through the frames that count

I've watched the GFS produce those maps all Winter, it's pretty simple that in the pattern it won't happen.

Yeah man. check out this drought

GFS very dry through the run... surprising. This should not be such a dry time normally.

Regarding ENSO, I think SSTs are so warm right now we would default to +0.5c as the new average, especially in the Spring.

Not really possible. Can I have a job?

The way it's moving now, there is pretty much no way the La Nina holds. Peak season is not passed so there is still some time for a cold push, but subsurface and surface are all moving toward Neutral. Record warm Northern Hemisphere SSTs are the real thing, and I wonder if this will drive weak El Nino in the Spring. It seemed to work last year. Imagine these record SSTs and a developing real El Nino... The jump in certain statistics would be so large I wonder if it's even possible.

How are you doing? Is the blizzard kind of a warm wet snow?

lol the roads are wet.

gravity waves... I bet closer to center of storm it is much different. like the antarctic or something.

Here goes..... I was trying to make money in 2010 to move on, but weird energy stuff started happening and I got real big. This was unexpected eventually by 2013 I met my obstacle to the money piece. So I had to go back home rebuild.... it was surprising the stocks would move against me more than my ability to make money, especially because there was no reason... I began predicting weather in spare time to make use of awesome pattern recognition ability and enhancing, and I think the wrong people got a hold of my December forecast because it has not been warm because of strange cold pattern. Now this storm is dry and there is a line going through Kansas to Canada...

I'd be interested in how Florida does snowwise.

Yeah, precip will likely fill in much more.

NAM is a weird model... GFS too dry for this storm. Something much different probably.

Does it feel like before a storm? The air is dry or sun hot or something.

yeah there's real stuff going on lol