mackerel_sky

LOL @ NAM ! It looks juicy and has the high in the plains at 1050, but shows no snow at the end of its run, verbatim 

Isn’t it about time for a random model no one has heard of, to give us false hope for snow? JMA, Brazilian, HRRR extrapolated? 

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

With respect to precip, this one is tough to figure out. Some of the modeling is bumping north, which happens, say, 8 out of 10 times regardless of the specifics of the setup. Yet, the two models generally regarded as the best at 500mb (Euro and UKMet) want to dive the northern stream energy too far east preventing moisture from surging into the region 

I’d honestly have it suppressed and whiff, if it’s not gonna be snow! I don’t think anyone wants anymore rain! We’re good on that!

Atleast we still have the NAM and CMC on our side!

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro quite suppressed still the most suppressed model with the UK

As long as it’s cold!

32 minutes ago, Lookout said:

If anyone needs a reminder about not throwing in the towel too early...look at today's rain across ga..been raining all morning here when Most of the models had very little or none at all here in the past 72 hours. Indeed go back and see how poorly the models handled today's rain over the past few days. Cold air supply might be lacking for some but i sure wouldn't get get too discouraged over precip amounts this early for Thursday. Feel like for those in  nc stand a good chance...soundings show a cold profile with a really shallow surface warm layer on most guidance that probably would be overcome with decent precip. Upstate might see a changeover at some point but  Think this is probably a classic case of the mountains screwing ga by blocking caa. Not buying the Canadian showing precip into friday. 

I think NAVGEM has precip around till Friday morning, if I looked correctly?

Looks like the models are shifting from an overrunning event , to a coastal storm? Or I guess it could be both?

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I saw a squirrel today. 

 

Did it have any nuts??

2 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Yes but this isn't a CAD event..at least not a classical Cad with a High in position northeast. This is a sprawling midwest high. It's got the gusto to cool us all enough just a matter if moisture gets here too early. Nam and cmc hold a back and dig it a little more from what I see which is gonna allow this cold to seep in just in time...really threading a needle

Yeah, I think we would need an Early Thursday start or late night Thursday start, for maximum cold availability!?

Remember the good ole days when it was going to be cold and dry Thursday? Like 42/24 cold here!? Now rain and 40, awesome!

Both the CMC and 12Z GFS has a little pocket of snow left over the Upstate and mountains as all the moisture is on the coast with the low! Hmmm

3 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

The Canadian is much cooler than the gfs and would be a nice hit for parts of upstate and a big hit for coastal NC!

Isn’t the CMC usually the coldest model? I think it is during CAD events?

10 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

What does Accuweather say?

Snow on Jan 3 2021

3 things are clear: bl temps and rates are a BIG problem, and it gon rain! Y’all enjoy!

TWC just said Nope! It’s a royal rumble: TWC/Gilbert vs Justice/Cedric

Looks like 540 line is further S on the 12z! Baby steps! A good bit wetter/more N push , than 6z!

3 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

I’m here.  

We don’t need your assistance to track rain!

Next!

31 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Warden running a tight ship this week

A lot of rain on that GFS run! That’s why cold air is the most important ingredient of a wintry system for us! Que the “ models underestimating the cold “ comments! The models have overdone the cold air 99% of the time this year!

Cedric the entertainer talking about baking cupcakes

I got my 2xl panties on! It’s funny to go from suppression to too warm in 3 runs! The Mid Atlantic should be very excited! They end up cashing in and we Cold Rain!

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

The QPF and snow total noticeably ticked up on the ensemble mean also. 

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I don't have access to EURO but based on GFS, temperatures look like a big factor, particularly surface temperatures based on soundings I looked at on GFS and model output.  In addition, NWS RAH is forecasting a high of 46 on Thursday and 42 on Friday.  

That was probably a forecast without precip. More or any precip= colder temps

I must say, I don’t like the orientation of the high on the Euro, and no wedging!?

1 minute ago, griteater said:

So the 18z Euro only goes out to hr90, but the 18z Euro Ensemble goes out to hr144.  The control run is part of the ensemble, so it goes out to hr144.  Here's the snow map

So this is a good step, correct?

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Can you elaborate

The control run of the 18z Euro is posted in the TN forum! Looks like 3-8” across most/all of NC