mackerel_sky

Another bust for GSP! In honor of Brick, somebody post the “ it’s happening “ meme!

Sun angle kicking in here!

12 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I'll take this. Hrrr ticking up precip every run.

That looks low, based on obs and radar! Good luck to y’all!

Where’s @LOOKOUT? Should be snowing there!?

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

Snowing south of Atlanta and inside the Toccoa warm bubble. Man your battle stations. Incoming 

My mil lives in Toccoa! 

Seneca might be S.C. sweetspot!

Clouds pretty thick here, anybody got some updates, pretty maps? Radar looks good

33/29, yay! Sprinkles incoming!

37 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

More rain basically all next week... 

I’ll be fighting to get 1” of rain total for May-October, and just got 5+” in 12 hours yesterday! Put that -NAO to work over the summer!

11 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like there is a tiny strip breaking out between Florence and Huntsville but I think this needs to start growing pretty quick if we're going to have anything to work with. You're talking about gainsville in just 10 hours. Always good to see your input Grit! 

My god, the futurecast radar looks like complete s**t now! Uggggh, plenty of moisture, the R/S line is at the N.C./SC border the whole event! NGA still gets plastered!

8 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'm not too good with the short range models, but the HRRR has been consistant in showing the precip sharply turning to rain just as it hits the GA/SC state line and I am quite concerned about this. I really think the later arrival to SC is going to play a large role; plus, don't forget, that we often see a lee drying and warming coming from the higher terrain of NEGA. The WRF is much more bullish on upstate snow but I think that is a bias of that one. The HRRR, seems to be better with subtle temp changes, at least for the upstate. I seem to remember it correctly being the debbie downer before, but maybe I'm getting them mixed up. Someone was commenting about FOX21 going with cold rain for the upstate but that is probably the safest bet. There's certainly bust potential either way. It could easily surprise with a burst of snow tomorrow, but climo says it's probably mostly rain. 

Yeah; death, taxes, and NC getting more than the upstate. I don't care what the set up is, if the upstate gets anything, WNC will aways, ALWAYS get more. 

There was an event 5-7 years ago, kind of on this same trajectory, was supposed to be flurries or rain, or dry up, Oconee got like 5” of suprise snow, in Feb

7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Verbatim this heaviest line is heading right up 85 into SC, and I mean exact. If the orient of precip is ENE and the BL temps are 32 or less somone could get a nice thump! 

Wrf or hrrrrrrrrr, went really dry or rainy, my eyes are getting crossed looking for hope for a flurry! I’m a little concerned that this is like a clipper, and they ALWAYS trend N, and jackpot  NC 

9 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

You're in the upstate now, maybe you'll even get a car topper! 

Didn’t know you were up here!? For your sanity, I hope it’s N of 85!

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

You seen the new 00z 12k 10:1 snow map? 2.1” lollipop over warmNose ranch 

Yeah, people saying short range models drying up, lol! I’m still getting hammered at casa de Mack, on all 3 of the 0z NAMs! Waiting on the RAP!

1 hour ago, Dunkman said:

Even the high end forecast from GSP looks pretty meager. We must really be wishcasting this one or something.

They’ve never ever been wrong!

It’s already 38 here! Winds ripping out of the w/sw, surprised we can get cold air with that trajectory 

7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

the in-house CJ model has updated on the news and now keeps the R/S line a good 20 miles south of i-85 for duration of the storm. Previous run had it just along 85.

Just saw that and lasts till about 4 ish! Colder temps and more precip! I thought I was hallucinating!

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

Should have a full head of steam as it rolls into SC. HRRR seems a bit faster with onset

These almost always hold together even better/ farther than modeled! Hold on, I’m on my way to store for bread and milk!

16 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Whatever map Cedric just put out live on the air had Moderate snow north of 85 and a cold cold rain over our heads 

You know to get the heaviest snow, you’ve got to be able to smell the rain!

9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Look at that heavy band on the GFS radar simulation... yes please!

Almost a death band! KK took the night off!

My TWC local forecast has R/S mix tomorrow, snow accumulations less than an inch! Big win this winter, all day, everyday!

Im telling y’all, this has pretty good bust potential,! I swear watching WYFF 4 and CJ, every time he shows futurecast radar, it’s snowier than the last run, and it’s almost like he can’t believe it as he’s talking over it!! It’s great!!

20 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Just had a graupel/rain mix in Raleigh! Winter!

It couldn’t be?? That’s a trace

I’m telling y’all, they just showed the full run of futurecast radar, and it puts it down pretty good over my backyard for 4-5 hours, and would probably be good for us to get 1-2”, it’s coming down pretty good, according to that model! Anybody got a cool animated radar showing us getting plastered with snow??

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

18z Rgem is out. Clobbers N. Ga. Also appears an hour or two faster with onset compared to other models. The below image is valid for 11am tomorrow.

To add to this, there is already moisture forming in AL! Definitely earlier arrival, the better for us! RPM or whatever “ futurecast” radar is, looks really juicy for us tomorrow, r/s gradient on 85, of course

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Anxiously awaiting the 4 o’clock local met updates! See what the hype/ignoring level is! Can almost guarantee KK elwill be all rain/token flakes, CJ will be in half -weenie mode, they should tread lightly after last weeks suprise/ bust!

NM, just saw CJ Facebook post, downplaying as a non event, rain snow mix! Man, he’s the best!