hawkeye_wx

The front popped just in time to drop 0.25" early this morning.  That should be it for rain until late in the month.

Models had been teasing a line of rain early Friday morning, but not necessarily very robust.  Instead, a good hour of thunderstorms dropped 0.96" on my yard, the best rain event since June 24th, which is when the drought really began in earnest.  My August rain total is now 1.71, more than all of July.

It's good we got the rain this morning because it appears the strong Sunday system may produce the good rain north of Iowa where the best dynamics are and south of Iowa where the best moisture is.

9 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Models sucked ass with this system.  Just 0.15" here.  Nice amount of rain in July so we don't need it that badly anyway at least.

Yes, they did.  It tracked pretty far south and it was not the widespread heavy rain event that was expected.  It did not help that there was no heat/instability in Iowa Sunday.

I actually finished with a solid 0.72", better than most spots around here.  It was a slow soak, too, so probably better than a quick 1+" from a thunderstorm.

31 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

This was looking like a nice soaking rain for msp a few days ago. Oh well, enjoy. 

Maybe, maybe not.  The NAM has shifted all the rain into western and southern Iowa, with nothing here at all.  I pray that is overdone.

All models have now shifted well south with the main low Sunday through Monday.  I'm actually beginning to get excited for a potential much-needed heavy rain event.

Some models have been dumping good rain on southern Wisconsin as the main low moves through.  Now, however, the short-range models are trending so far south that northeast IA, southern WI, and northern IL get nothing.

A band of 4-8 inches of rain has fallen overnight from far northeast Missouri to Burlington, IA.

The Euro has latched onto the possible heavy rain swath through IL/IN Friday night/Saturday.

The 12z Euro has gone slower and south with the strong wave.

There is a disturbance in southeast Nebraska.  Several models are now moving that eastward and laying down a swath of heavy rain in northern MO and southern IA and into Illinois.  A few models continue it east or even southeast through Illinois while a few turn it east-northeast toward Chicago.

I likely won't see a drop before Sunday.  Models are split on whether my area will get anything at all this weekend.  It's possible the main shortwave and front will pass east of me before storms blow up Sunday.

46 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I didn't realize that about beetles and drought, but I've noticed a sharp decline in the numbers in my garden this year, so it makes sense.

I think the idea is the beetle larvae feed on turf roots, so when the weather is wet and the turf is lush, beetles thrive, but then during drought, when everything is baked and brown, there is very little for the larvae to eat so they die out.

The latest GEFS and EPS mean qpf for the next two weeks are the best they've been all summer for Iowa.

There is hope for some solid rain across Iowa and Minnesota this weekend as a low slowly traverses the region.

I hate drought, but there are two silver linings.  I think I've mentioned before that drought knocks Japanese beetle numbers down to very low levels.  There have been almost no beetles again this year.  The other silver lining is this year's earlier drought has led to my crab apple trees being almost totally free of apple scab.  I usually have trouble with bacterial leaf spot on my pepper plants, too, and I think the dryness of the foliage has helped keep the problem in check this year.

24 minutes ago, smoof said:

1.5" overnight, at 10.5" in July here now! started the month with a 3.5" tsunami july 1st in 40mins.

Wow, what a month over there!  People from southern MN to northern MO are begging for rain.  That bad spot in northeast Missouri has received less than 2" of rain over the last 60 days.

This evening's 0.69" of rain boosted my July total to 1.68".  We need August to deliver a lot more.

It was a nice storm here.  The worst wind was to my north where the line surged eastward.  I got 60+ mph from the initial outflow, which knocked out our internet.  I did not see any damage around my yard.  The outflow quickly pushed southward, so the rain was fairly progressive.  I received 0.69".  It's not the 2+ inches we need, but it's something.  I'd much rather have the training storms that set up over northern Illinois.

The HRRR and RRFS models have been iffy with convection here later.  However, both models continue to quickly mix the dew point down into the 60s across the area this afternoon, which is very wrong.  Dews are well into the 70s to near 80 across Iowa.

The SPC has moderate all the way back to Sioux Falls, but models are struggling to develop convection west of Cedar Rapids.

Today was going to be our hottest day of the year, but a disturbance moving across Iowa has spread clouds over much of the area.  The result is we are only at 90º/72º.

The drought map does not make sense.  Over at least the last 30 days, much more rain has fallen in southern Iowa and southern Wisconsin than has fallen here in Cedar Rapids.  I've barely received an inch.  We've been missed by nearly everything, while Madison has been soaked several times.  However, the drought map shows Madison and southeast Iowa in extreme drought while we are only in moderate drought.  Even going back 60 or 90 days, we have not had any more rain than the extreme drought areas.

It's odd they broad-brushed east-central Iowa with a drought downgrade from severe to moderate.  A couple counties, through Cedar Rapids, missed out on much of the rain and have received less than an inch in July.  The drought here hasn't improved at all.  Typically, they do a good job showing small wet and dry holes on the map.

A tiny cell, very early this morning, produced lightning/thunder and dropped 0.17" of rain.  That boosts my July total to a whopping 0.99".

Dry, dry, dry for the rest of the month.

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended looks good, no heat, active nw flow

It looks dry here.  The latest GFS/Euro show <0.50" over the next ten days.