mahantango#1

Well it's not our first rodeo...and it won't be our last.

That looks concerning.

got down to 23 overnight here. Will this be a wet snow event?

Yes its DT.

FIRST CALL MAP While the new technology and new weather models which have come out over the last 20 years are demonstrably better than what we saw back in the 1970s 1980s and 1990s… there is something to be said for adhering to the basic rules that have been around for 60-70 years when it comes to East Coast winter storms. And one of those basic rules is that if you have a coastal storm( known as a MILLER A East Coast winter storm) that comes up from the southern States, you HAVE to have a source of either Arctic or semi-Arctic air to the north that replenishes the cold air along the coastal plain. Otherwise the track of the LOW along or just off the coast will send relatively mild Ocean Air into the coastal plain and change the snow /sleet/ freezing rather quickly to all rain. That cold air source HAS to be 1) strong area of HIGH pressure that consists of either Arctic or semi-arctic air and 2) that HIGH has to be located in a certain position-- in the central / eastern Great Lakes and/ or into eastern Ontario and / or far northern New England and / or southern Quebec Canada. With respect to Saturday that cold HIGH pressure area simply does not exist. So the atmosphere that initially is cold enough to support winter precipitation in portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic and the interior portions of Maryland and Virginia does not last. And that is exactly what the short-range models are showing here on midday Thursday January 4th. This is why all the data here this morning and at midday have trended warmer in the lower portions of the Middle Atlantic region. you'll see that the snow amounts are reduced in the Shenandoah Valley and is a lot more ICE on these maps. I have moved the one inch snow line north of DC and just touching Baltimore. The start times are unchanged but I have expanded the ICE area. Because the mid levels of the atmosphere are warmer the ice concern is a bit more serious in the southern half of the Shenandoah Valley and the Virginia Piedmont. The 6-inch Snow Line is now barely touching the far Northwest tip of Virginia -mostly restricted to the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia and Western Maryland. North of NYC as well as NW NJ into the Poconos the Catskills and southern New England this looks like a very impressive snowstorm.

https://youtu.be/jlA-z0du1Pg?si=MsXoyyypQebvVfZ0

I'm glad someone remembered.

Im almost certain that few used to try their hand on accumulations. That was years ago.

I thought years ago some of you guys used to make maps of snow accumulations for Pennsylvania. Be nice to see them again.

Sounds like there will be a lot of disappointment on this forum. Unless Blizz can pull off a Hail Mary later on.

27:s forecast:

Talk about mass confusion, wtf!

It should be interesting

DT's first call is after 11pm.

I believe JB is going for 6-12 for most of us in Pa.

A cold morning got down to 22.5 overnight here.

Time to start panicking?

Let the numbers game begin. But we should have a much better consensus on totals tomorrow. The carpet and tile guys well... Meteorologist Brett Thackara ortespdSno4u4601f71hal3114101516l919m637ti7h30i6lg1mhlh0fug5 · WEEKEND STORM LATEST: The storm is looking like a flatter wave and a quick mover. This means it likely won't produce a foot of snow for our region, but it will still likely be plowable. It will start on Saturday afternoon and be over by wake-up time on Sunday morning. We don't have specific snow numbers yet, it's simply too early. We are watching for any mixing potential with this. Sleet and/or rain could still mix in, especially in our southern tier. That would obviously affect totals. Mixing isn't a given yet,

I hope I don't get severe old.

From your fiends ss: SS Storm Chase And Forecast Team - Mid Atlantic LLC Favorites · 30m · TODAY IS WEDNESDAY 1-3-2024 FORECAST ISSUED AT: 6:45 AM SNOW AMOUNTS OF 10-15” ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK PROMISING

It's up to you to keep us in the game. No illegal substutions.. we can't afford a penalty now.