mahantango#1

Pics from yesterday:

I'm sure there will be some winter weather to be had moving forward. But to what extent remains to be seen. And the clock keeps on ticking as we inch closer to spring. I'm not sure it's time to punt yet. We need some reassurance that there is hope for the big paralyzing snow to satisfy our hunger.

Seems like a lot of disappointment on here this morning. Might be time to change the game plan.

It has basically been below freezing for a week now. My temp got to 33 yesterday, so that ground is cold to be sure.

Will there be icy weather tomorrow? Don't the models have a tendency to under estimate the low level cold air trapped near the surface?

JB has alluded to possibility of "all hell breaking out" once we get to February 10th in the eastern US into March. Whether it does, remains to be seen. That goes against the the CPC's outlook.

Winters beauty this morning, at a cold 6 degrees.

5 this morning. A nice stretch of winter, if you like the impressive cold and some snow we experienced within the last week.

Imo the most worst part of winter is the wind. If there is basically no wind it would be more tolerable.

I had enough of this seemingly relentless wind.

I don't know whats going on with these geese. Yesterday afternoon I seen a few flocks headed south. And last night I heard a few flocks while I was outside headed south. Absolutely weird what is going on this season with the geese. My assumption is more cold is coming in a few weeks.

I picked up another inch of snow earlier this evening.

He seems a little out of touch imo. But I'm no meteorologist.

Give us an address...we'll see what we can arrange, to make your dreams come true.

DT forgot to post last call map. But I found it.

Have a little over an inch here. It was coming down really good the first hour after it started.

A balmy 26 here.

https://www.kcur.org/sports/2024-01-17/chiefs-playoffs-game-kansas-city-cold-weather-hypothermia-arrowhead-stadium

Do you see it even getting to 32 in Harrisburg tomorrow?

From JB this morning: The clipper could still bomb out near the coast Friday night, but it looks like a large area of 20:1 ratio snows from the northern Plains to the M-Atlantic. It is going to be followed by the coldest weather of the winter for the East, but not the Plains, as they will start to warm

I wonder if he is on to something or was he hitting the bottle to much. But i remember maybe 10 years or so ago. NWS had me getting on their original call of 2-4 something like that. But during the storm they had to issue a special weather statement and up the accumulation. I ended up with about 8 inches. It wasn't everywhere but there were a few counties involved where a heavy snowband set up and lasted for a few hours. Maybe it will happen again.

From DT @11pm last night: FIRST GUESS MAP FOR JAN 19 To begin with… for anybody in the state of VA this is a non-event. Almost the entire state will miss out on the snow and I expect that is going to be the case for Washington DC as well. There might be a 1 inch snow accumulation in the far NW corner of VA. BUT this will be a pretty good snowfall for most of WV. The 6-inch band of snow in the Greenbrier Valley may end up being more like 9 or 10 inches because of the high snow ratio. The HIGH SNOW RATIO due to the arrival of the Arctic air is going to be a factor in the storm which was going to make the snow forecast particularly tricky. Remember that most of the snow amounts on the models are based upon a 10 to 1 snow ratio. That is to say 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow. But in Arctic air… the snow ratio goes up and it can easily approach values of 13 to 1 or 15 to 1. On the other, as I have stated earlier, this is a VERY FAST MOVING ystem. So we are not looking at a long duration event here. The upper level energy and the surface LOW not get together in time to produce a big Coastal storm. Looking at the latest data I do see some interesting Trends which are occurring in the short range models. The system continues to look quite innocuous and not significant on the 18z WED and 0z THU op- GFS. And the 12z and 18z op-European models aren't showing much of anything either. However the high resolution short range models are showing something interesting. The 0Z THUR 3km NAM shows an explosion of moderate to heavy snow developing in central PA pushing into northern NJ by midday on Friday. As the upper level energy and the surface LOW finally begin to coalesce the snow becomes extremely heavy Friday afternoon for several hours in southeast PA including the Philly metro area all of NJ NYC LI across southern Rhode Island and the extreme Southern portions of Mass. This is also supported by the high-resolution mesoscale HRRR model which shows more the same. It also develops a burst of extremely heavy snow from northeast MD into northern DEL (including Wilmington) into the Philly metro area and then up into northern NJ and NYC which expands later on Friday afternoon across all of Long Island coastal CT and again the far southern tip of Mass. . If these snow rates actually materialize the next updated snow map will probably have 6 inches into a good portion of Central and southern NJ Again I am worried about the snow ratios producing amounts closer to 8 inches portions of eastern PA including Lehigh Valley and the Philly Metro area.

got down to 2.5 overnight currently 6.

Milder air sounds good!