Met1985

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. The Euro Weeklies (EW) from late Dec were overall WAY off for mid Jan to early Feb but it wasn’t just in the too cold direction.

2. The week of Jan 15-22 ended up WAY too warm on the EW in late Dec, less than 3 weeks out. It later corrected and ended up ~6 BN at RDU, very accurate:

3. Here’s the map I was referring to (in the post you quoted) with a strong signal for cold in the final week of the 12/31/23 EW (for Feb 5-12), which as of now is likely to bust way too cold:

 

4. The EW from many late Dec/very early Jan runs for Jan 22-29 will end up busting way too cold as many runs had NN well inland to BN nearer to the SE coast. However, as Jan 15-22 corrected much colder, Jan 22-29 corrected much warmer and has since been warm for many runs. It is almost as if once the Ninalike (coldest Plains/MW) extreme cold of Jan 15-22 was seen, the outlook to much warmer following it was also seen.

5. The week of Jan 29-Feb 5, which was also NN inland to BN coast on runs in late Dec/very early Jan is still in some doubt as a good number of recent GFS runs have been no warmer than NN in much of the SE, largely helped by cold CAD. You even said this just 2 days ago:

“Well the idea of 3 weeks of solid warmth is getting derailed at least in the ops. Canadian actually first to pick up on the cooler first week of Feb (it’s backed off somewhat). GFS has trended way colder.”

6. The Weeklies from late Dec/early Jan weren’t quite screaming BN the whole period in the entire SE, but rather mainly NN well inland to BN nearer to coast other than all solidly BN Feb 5-12. Still way off though (much too cold Jan 22-29 and probably Feb 5-12 and much too warm Jan 15-22 with Jan 29-Feb 5 still in doubt).

7. I never trust models in week 2, much less extended models. I just use them as guidance in combo with climo, analogs, etc.

8. The main purpose of this thread is supposed to be to discuss what each of us sees down the road as possibilities, whatever they may be. We’ll always have different takes, which makes for good discussion as long as it doesn’t deteriorate into too much confrontation/negativity toward each other. The posts made out of frustration have a better place, the Sanitarium thread. The most enjoyable part for me is to try to sniff out pattern changes well in advance by using history/climo as a guide.

9. Most of NC missing SN mid Jan has little bearing on their chances of getting it mid Feb to early Mar imho, especially in a moderate+ Nino.

Excellent post Larry and some of what I was alluding to but you put it in a much better context than me. Keep it up warm or cold.

Lol rough crowd guys, rough crowd.  I do understand yall outside the mountains.  Hopefully everyone can score.

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

The "frustration" is a miss on even our annual average much less a drought coming up on 2yrs in a row.  And now looking at +300hr models for even a simple favorable pattern.  You can understand this, right?

I can understand that for sure. What I don't understand is people thinking this was not advertised in the mid range forecast.  Larry has posted some great statistics for a possible snowy February.  Tennessee has scored and hopefully the prevailing pattern to come will help us score as a state in whole. 

I'll state this again looking at op runs after op run will only get you more and more frustrated.  We all know that the time period for a significant change back to a much better pattern is going to be around February 8th and then some. So maybe use this time to take a little break and enjoy the weather we have.

21 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Exactly once an opportunity is blown it is hard to get it back in the southeast.

For yalls area I do understand your frustration. It is way harder to get snow down yalls way than up here in the mountains. But I still wouldn't completely take your area out of the probability to see some snow this year. 

Euro Weeklies. Heading into much better territory.

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The GEPS also agrees on the solution from the 2nd to around the 7th. Again all the ensembles are heading in the right direction.

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Also the GEFS agrees. Heading in the right direction.

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On the eps we go from torch on the 2nd to a much better look 5 days later heading in the right direction.

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The indices look like they are heading in the right direction in the mid to long range.

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34 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It was modeled about 7 to 10 days ago. Before that, the weeklies and long range ENS continued to say cold or average and stormy. Now the Pac Jet has taken over again. The fact is, this winter has been much like the last few. Temperatures have been slightly cooler but no synoptic storms, miller A's, ULL, etc. 

I have to disagree on that. This winter has been nothing like the last few. Last winter we had what 2 cold spells? One minor snow. Yes snow wise things have been lacking but it's still only January 24th. Temp wise we have done much better. We've seen several weeks and days with below normal temps or near normal temps. Sure We've seen the 33 and rain but we are really close to scoring region wide.

This warm.up has been advertised since last month. The weeklies had flipped to a warm January for a few runs then came back down to reality.  Sure the weeklies have flipped here a d there but they have been the most stable out of the long range models to date. 

The eps has also done a great job noting the current pattern. It you watch run to run op solutions you are going to go crazy. Just the fact of things.

And now the mjo is showing signs of moving through the warm phases quicker so the actual cool down coming back is moving up at this hour. No can kicking that I can see. No pushing this pattern back at all at this stage. 

59 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Picked up 1.41 since yesterday morning. I’m well on my way to 6-8 through this weekend. 

Yeah you are going to get hammered with rainfall. 

29 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The weeklies also showed the whole month of January being great into February at one point. We all see how that turned out. One week of cold temperatures and some snow in the mountains

For the most part we have been at average or below.  We just haven't had a synoptic storm line up. But our friends to the west sure did make out nice. This warm up has been well advertised for over a month. This is not a surprise and people who act like this is a surprise do not follow this hobby well.

29 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The big picture says wait at least 3 weeks

2 to 3 weeks yeah. It's a big reset. After the cold we just had I'm not surprised.  Everything pulled back to the arctic. 

Euro Weeklies and the eps, and the GEFS all look good for a return to a more stable winter pattern around the 8th of February.  The Weeklies look really good from the 2nd week of February all the way to the first of March.  We are looking at the bigger picture here not individual storms at this point.

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thank you!

 Where can I sign up for this that just came out from the newest 48 CFS run mean for mid Feb (Feb 13-19)? It has -EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, and the very important and sometimes overlooked split flow (moist subtropical jet underneath and overrunning the bottom of the cold air supply from +PNA) with a good moisture source coming across from Baja CA. This pattern should it materialize would favor any Arctic high to move from the N Plains to near the Ohio Valley as opposed to the colder but drier option of plunging down into the S Plains. What more could one want in terms of overall pattern for SE winter storm potential other than needing to be patient since it would take ~3 weeks to get established? By the way, that timeframe continues to move up as it was 4+ weeks away when I first started seeing it on the extended models over a week ago.

 

Let's do it!

Yep a very nice event after the rainstorm.

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Ummm Houston we gone have a problem.

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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Weather really does have a memory it seems. In December we were given this exact picture of a death ridge that would rule for 3+ weeks and it ended up being slightly above normal at best with some legitimately warmer days on the front end like this week. The upcoming pattern screams opportunities for CAD and progressive cold shots. It won’t be an ideal pattern for winter weather but when is it ever?

We've been being preached that we are going to torch for a whole month that never came to fruition.  I've talked about pattern recognition with carversgap and Larry on here a couple of times.  Sure we will warm up but after the cold We've seen in my opinion that is pretty normal.  

Made it down to 0 this morning.  Was hoping to at least hit the negatives... Well time for a thaw and a very wet week that will probably cause some flooding concerns.

It's only 8pm and I'm down to 4 already...

1 hour ago, Bigbald said:

I wonder who won the battle of the flow snow between Snowshoe and Beech/Sugar Mtn? Models were spitting out ridiculous numbers at SS in the run up but I'd be shocked if they were higher than what Beech ended up.  I've heard reports from 16 inches upwards of more than two feet, But with all that wind who knows.

Yeah big time snows over here in WNC. One of the best upslope events in a long time. 

5 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I still have diamond dust falling. It's been a great winter week up here... now I'm ready to moderate a little for a bit.

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Yes sir. Let's do this region wide in a few weeks. Hopefully we can get a synoptic storm. 

7 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Nice pics yall! I'm headed up to the AT predawn with TM. We'll see if we can keep our batteries thawed!

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Snowed most of the day up in the mountains.  Twas a magical day again. 

Larry excellent stuff man. Keep it coming.  Love your posts and info big man.

Just got home from the snow adventures today. Current temp down to 7...