Met1985

We then get another reinforced shot of cooler air behind the initial cool down.

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We go from today to a nice cool down.

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4 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Yeah, I don't think you can trust DT.

If you follow the ensembles they have cooled greatly just over the past few days.

11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

DT ALERT*: 

⚠️**ALERT  **   MAJOR CHANGES   AT 500mb ACROSS NORTH AMERICA  WILL END  MILD  PATTERN  MUCH SOONER THAN INTIALLY THOUGHT⚠️

...as I  said in the  Tuesday  edition of THIS WEEK IN WEEK ... this is  called  UNDERCUTTING 

 ... rare  PAMELA  ANDERSON  Pattern change ...

NEXT WEEK  things are looking VERY different  than what they appeared only 3-4 days  ago.  The 12z Models are showing some important changes.

…TENN VALLEY  southern Mid Atlantic  snowstorm  FEB 4-5?

https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1750697773140255145?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g
 

The ensembles are catching onto this today as well. Doesn't look like an all out dumpster fire.  

34 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

18z GFS certainly wasn't bad. I have a hard time buying any long term torch given the Nino and the fact that the models blasted a January torch back in December that never really materialized beyond some short warm ups.

If a February "torch" gives me another foot of snow I'll be thrilled.

Yeah the torch has never materialized..We've been at or below normal essentially.  I really don't think this so called torch will either.  Glad I live in the mountains.  I don't envy those that don't. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is going to really stress the limits of the thunder in the mountains rule.  If it snows in ten days, I will never question the rule.  I mean it works about 90% of the time.  We can just throw out the Weeklies if it works this time.  We will use thunder only for next winter if so.

Hey it does look like we will see a nice upslope even here the first of next week.

More rain tonight.  The river is way up but I don't see any flooding concerns.  Maybe this weekend though. 

3 hours ago, ncjoaquin said:

The ones that need your sarcasm, met1985, probably would not even realize that you're being sarcastic, lol. 

Hey I'm just trying to stay in my lane. Just living in reality lol. 

Still a signal but get your shorts on and tanning lotion out because it ain't going to snow ever again.

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This is fake news guys.

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This is what the rest of our winter is going to look like.

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4 hours ago, ncjoaquin said:

Take it with a grain of NaCl, but the 6z GFS op brings a series of snow chances. These show up and disappear run to run. Hopefully, they start getting in a 5 day window. GSP not very excited by the upcoming upslope. It looks better to me than what they think, but they have forgotten more than I know. 

No winter is over guys. Get ready for spring and the beach. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The first two are control runs for week 4.  The last two are their accompanying ensembles.  I have some commentary in the Jan thread(thought I was in this thread).

 

Carver say it ain't so. I was told winter is over now. Close the blinds, put out the grass seed, start getting ready for beach weather... 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It was like summer over here!  The only thing I hate is that it is going to erase our negative temperature departure.  Somebody is gonna talk about how warm January 2024 was!  LOL.  If they only knew.

No freaking kidding! Yeah it was anything but warm.

Still a great signal for a significant upslope event during this torch.

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5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 1. I’ve got my flame-proof suit on! Take the following new (1/24) EW maps with a HUGE grain. They may end up way off like the late Dec/early Jan runs. They’re far from trustworthy.

2. So, fwiw, the last 3 weeks of the run are each the coldest yet of their respective weeks. Even though they’re not even close to being trustworthy, I still prefer seeing them with BN dominating and like seeing the cold signal strengthening, especially since El Niño climo would support it.

Feb 12-19: only 1 close to this cold is 1/21 run:

 

Feb 19-26: by far coldest run going back 2 weeks

 
 

Feb 19-26 precip: ~1” ATL, 1.5” Gainesville, FL

This would definitely line up with what the ensembles are show for sure.

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. The Euro Weeklies (EW) from late Dec were overall WAY off for mid Jan to early Feb but it wasn’t just in the too cold direction.

2. The week of Jan 15-22 ended up WAY too warm on the EW in late Dec, less than 3 weeks out. It later corrected and ended up ~6 BN at RDU, very accurate:

3. Here’s the map I was referring to (in the post you quoted) with a strong signal for cold in the final week of the 12/31/23 EW (for Feb 5-12), which as of now is likely to bust way too cold:

 

4. The EW from many late Dec/very early Jan runs for Jan 22-29 will end up busting way too cold as many runs had NN well inland to BN nearer to the SE coast. However, as Jan 15-22 corrected much colder, Jan 22-29 corrected much warmer and has since been warm for many runs. It is almost as if once the Ninalike (coldest Plains/MW) extreme cold of Jan 15-22 was seen, the outlook to much warmer following it was also seen.

5. The week of Jan 29-Feb 5, which was also NN inland to BN coast on runs in late Dec/very early Jan is still in some doubt as a good number of recent GFS runs have been no warmer than NN in much of the SE, largely helped by cold CAD. You even said this just 2 days ago:

“Well the idea of 3 weeks of solid warmth is getting derailed at least in the ops. Canadian actually first to pick up on the cooler first week of Feb (it’s backed off somewhat). GFS has trended way colder.”

6. The Weeklies from late Dec/early Jan weren’t quite screaming BN the whole period in the entire SE, but rather mainly NN well inland to BN nearer to coast other than all solidly BN Feb 5-12. Still way off though (much too cold Jan 22-29 and probably Feb 5-12 and much too warm Jan 15-22 with Jan 29-Feb 5 still in doubt).

7. I never trust models in week 2, much less extended models. I just use them as guidance in combo with climo, analogs, etc.

8. The main purpose of this thread is supposed to be to discuss what each of us sees down the road as possibilities, whatever they may be. We’ll always have different takes, which makes for good discussion as long as it doesn’t deteriorate into too much confrontation/negativity toward each other. The posts made out of frustration have a better place, the Sanitarium thread. The most enjoyable part for me is to try to sniff out pattern changes well in advance by using history/climo as a guide.

9. Most of NC missing SN mid Jan has little bearing on their chances of getting it mid Feb to early Mar imho, especially in a moderate+ Nino.

Excellent post Larry and some of what I was alluding to but you put it in a much better context than me. Keep it up warm or cold.

Lol rough crowd guys, rough crowd.  I do understand yall outside the mountains.  Hopefully everyone can score.

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

The "frustration" is a miss on even our annual average much less a drought coming up on 2yrs in a row.  And now looking at +300hr models for even a simple favorable pattern.  You can understand this, right?

I can understand that for sure. What I don't understand is people thinking this was not advertised in the mid range forecast.  Larry has posted some great statistics for a possible snowy February.  Tennessee has scored and hopefully the prevailing pattern to come will help us score as a state in whole. 

I'll state this again looking at op runs after op run will only get you more and more frustrated.  We all know that the time period for a significant change back to a much better pattern is going to be around February 8th and then some. So maybe use this time to take a little break and enjoy the weather we have.

21 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Exactly once an opportunity is blown it is hard to get it back in the southeast.

For yalls area I do understand your frustration. It is way harder to get snow down yalls way than up here in the mountains. But I still wouldn't completely take your area out of the probability to see some snow this year. 

Euro Weeklies. Heading into much better territory.

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The GEPS also agrees on the solution from the 2nd to around the 7th. Again all the ensembles are heading in the right direction.

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Also the GEFS agrees. Heading in the right direction.

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On the eps we go from torch on the 2nd to a much better look 5 days later heading in the right direction.

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The indices look like they are heading in the right direction in the mid to long range.

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