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Need that Sw out west to consolidate more as it drops south and east. As depicted currently by the models. Its stretched out from the Rockies to the EC. That's causing the suppression not the HP.
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The h5 level definitely more concentrated and digging more over AZ/NM vs the strung out of the gfs. Good signs but still too far out of range.
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Looking at the WRF. Virginia Beach south to extreme northern Outer Banks may see some Ocean Effect snow showers/flurries tomorrow. The column is below freezing. Moisture is limited. But very possible for some low top streamers coming off the Atlantic. Winds in the lowest 6k feet coming in out the NE. Doesn't happen much. So it would be a rarity for them.
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This front looks pathetic atm. A shadow of its former self. Rooting for my SE crew to get a snowstorm. FL could use some rain. Dry around my area.
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Based off that model, most of soundings show temps near 33-34 under snow. Might not stick too well. But the convective nature its showing probably be big fat flakes
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Of course. Because the path of the center There was very significant tropical SE(upslope) flow against the Blue Ridge. And heavy rains over the Piedmont. The water didn't have no where to go. From personal experience. Danville and South Boston I've seen alot of Debris in that river. In the from of branches and log jams too. So that could be another factor.
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When the Dan River floods it floods. Alot of low country in the Dan River Basin from the mouth in the mountains through the Piedmont. I've seen South Boston Va underwater from the Dan River. There is a boat ramp off of 57 SE of Danville along the state line before Hyco Lake that is notorious for flooding.
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The Pacific is a plague that keeps on year after year. If the Pacific would relax some probably allow a -nao to develop.
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When I was living in Roxboro. From 1999-2014. I don't really recall any year where nothing fell. We had good years and bad years. But I don't recall any thing like this year.
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Just something to watch after the front and storms later this week. This is the 18z icon. Shows a piece of energy held back over Texas and potential new system along the "old" front. The goofus has something similar roughly 30 hours later without significant consequence running through TN. Much more ridging out west vs goofus.
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Sure appears that way. This is 12z icon. Notice East TN.
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Even the Canadian and Icon shows 3-4" for much of the SE. Good weather to be a duck.
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Like a broken record player.
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Radar looks very interesting for the south. Tomorrow morning still has potential. Wet snow for mountains. Flurries east.
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Sorry. I do respect your opinion. But considering how badly GFS has performed I'd be seeking my own blend. Instead of relying on GFS. But I heartily agree Thursday looks Interesting for NC. Even tonight looks interesting. But that's my opinion. Considering GFS that's the last thing I would look at.
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I would watch tonight as well. Especially mountains south and west.. and east.
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Kind of interesting for yall NC folks. Thursday morning timeframe. Temps are in mid upper 30s. +/- 2to 3 degrees. Moisture and duration looks to be the biggest factor. Canadian 12z. 18z Icon 18z nam
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Hard to say. More consolidation imo at h5. 18z 12z Very evident 3 pieces of energy
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H5 definitely different from 12z.
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Hate to be that bad guy. But azaleas are starting to bloom here around Orlando. Some varieties of redbud trees .Running out of time I'm afraid for y'all.
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2/1/2020
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0z Canadian shows a light snow event for southern VA, northern NC. I85 north next Thursday. Canadian shows 3 waves for the mountain folks. Light snow events.
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3km nam not looking good this weekend. For upslope snow for the mountains. Looks like tstorms/squall line for SC,NC,Va. Not liking the looks. Summer maybe dry.
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Getting reports on some Facebook pages of iguanas dropping from trees and even dangling. The cold has stunned and immobilized them. In the upper 30s this morning NW of Orlando.
