RogueWaves

On 1/9/2023 at 3:37 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I would actually say a warning was warranted for the conditions. I was driving in them and it was quite brutal. Most roads had snow rutted much deeper than that, lots of places were 6 to 8" or more because of blowing from in nearby fields and what not Besides think of all the advisories DTW issues for what should be warnings. At the end of the day it's just the public's warning mechanism and nothing more.  Also we really have not had much Winter rain in recent years so I can't really complain from that aspect, but I never ever want winter rain to begin with lol.

I got to stay inside and avoid the WC's all day Fri, and finally forced to venture out on Saturday when to my surprise, conditions were still actually kinda dicey in the W burbs. The "it's too bad" comment was more about getting WWA level snow, which took crazy winds carrying it into/onto the roadways to make for such bad conditions. During my 2 decades under the GRR scheme, I was always arguing for a more "conditions based" headline decision. I had so many WWA's that qualified as Warnings it was a joke. @Harry said would never happen from that office (unless it is some long-duration LES event like this November featured). That office seems to think LES is some super scary version of snow that makes roadways more slippery/difficult/dangerous when the opposite is generally true, lol.

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This appears to be a typical Iowa "big" storm, which lays down a swath of 4-6".

What I would give to see legit 4-6!

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Chicago Winters have actually slightly cooled over the last 100 years. The cold winters of the 1960s and especially 1970s were such an aberration for the entire climate record for everywhere in the Great Lakes temp-wise, I just do not understand how we use that as baseline rather than the long term. Yes, Chicago winters are warmer than they were in the 1960s or 1970s.  And they are colder than they were in the 1920s. Or 1930s. Or 1940s. Or 1950s. Yes, Chicago winters are less snowy than they were in the 1960s and 1970s. But they are snowier than they were in the 1920s. Or 1930s. Or 1940. Or 1950s.

 

 And by the way all this talk of warm Januarys. 3 of the past 4 Januaries were colder than normal in the lower Great Lakes

Agree on the topic of using the cold 60's & 70's (and first half of 80's) as the benchmark, even though that's exactly what climate science cites for their arguments. The past (3) JAN's were cold, just fraught with BN snowfall. I hate to say it, but gimme some damned Clippers already. They were the best feature of last winter. 

19 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

What a nice little surprise here eh? Verbatim it’s 3-6” for NW Ohio with maybe a little lake enhancement occurring for Ottawa and Erie counties. As others have said though there’s a good bit of warm air to overcome, need the low to trend a little stronger here to wrap more cold air in

None of which has gone our way this winter or last. No matter how rosy model portrayals are, most of my qpf has fallen as liquid. I'm still shaking my head that I had to record a Storm Warning for what ended up being just 2.5" of snow. 

25 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Nowadays it's best to wait until 3 or so days out before starting a storm thread. This is the first run the euro showed anything close for the east part of the forum. 

And that's just for disco, lol. Getting anything to break right for this region has been like scoring on 4th and 60.  

18 hours ago, Chinook said:

The GEFS members have temps above freezing for much of this time frame

4 hours ago, mimillman said:

DTW gonna reel in a few inches. 

Detroit proper - not a chance. Points N maybe. If I had to put $$ I'd go with NMI (perhaps CMI) being cold enough. More cold rain in my forecast no doubt. Helps with low hydro so hard to complain too much. 

23 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Picking up like a 1/5th of my YTD total in an hour on nonsense. 

But we had that nonsense mojo in 13-14

On 1/5/2023 at 11:51 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Actually, 1991 to 2020 normals are I believe the highest 30 year normal snowfall for both Detroit (45.0") and Flint (52.1").

Ikr, so what happened on the updated map?? Looking at SEMI the amts were lowered across the board, lol

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 For Detroit

Avg 50F+ per DJF
...........D....J....F....DJF
1880s - 4 - 2 - 3 - 9
1890s - 3 - 2 - 1 - 6
1900s - 2 - 2 - 1 - 4
1910s - 3 - 1 - 1 - 5
1920s - 2 - 1 - 1 - 4
1930s - 3 - 2 - 3 - 8
1940s - 3 - 2 - 2 - 6
1950s - 3 - 2 - 1 - 7
1960s - 3 - 2 - 1 - 6
1970s - 2 - 1 - 2 - 5
1980s - 3 - 1 - 2 - 6
1990s - 4 - 2 - 3 - 9
2000s - 3 - 2 - 2 - 8
2010s - 4 - 3 - 2 - 10

Avg 40F+ per DJF
...........D....J....F....DJF
1880s - 12 - 07 - 10 - 29
1890s - 11 - 06 - 07 - 24
1900s - 07 - 05 - 05 - 17
1910s - 08 - 07 - 06 - 21
1920s - 10 - 06 - 06 - 21
1930s - 09 - 09 - 08 - 25
1940s - 09 - 06 - 07 - 21
1950s - 10 - 07 - 08 - 25
1960s - 09 - 06 - 07 - 23
1970s - 07 - 05 - 07 - 18
1980s - 10 - 05 - 08 - 24
1990s - 12 - 07 - 11 - 30
2000s - 10 - 07 - 08 - 25
2010s - 13 - 07 - 09 - 25

Funny how Detroit's biggest snowstorm happened smack-dab in the middle of the 1880's. One of the decades with the most warm temperatures. But also home to the previous harshest winter of record 1880-81 so that was quite the decade of extremes. Clearly, the 1900's and 1970's with the coldest against average temperatures produced some of the other notably historic snowstorms around here. This place does best with cold as a background state. 

Two Michigan cities among snowiest in U.S. over last 30 years, Old Farmer’s Almanac says (msn.com)

6 hours ago, Cary67 said:

No need to go to Europe for winter weather either.

Kinda surprising we don't see this more often tbh. At least we get the other 3.5 seasons here

8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ah, i see we’ve reached that point on the forum haven’t we.

just think, 55 days until met spring arrives.


.

Surprised. No talk of Morch?

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up 0.5" overnight and today.  Up to 5.4" for the season.

Bragger, eh?

16 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Winter is dead.

When did it live? I missed it that day

9 minutes ago, Danny8 said:

1991-2020 is out now. Although the map definitely has some issues, for example Grayling & Kalkaska normals should have them in the red

And the lame 90's hosed SEMI it would appear.

10 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Last couple gfs runs are hinting at a clipper in a couple days, could drop a quick couple inches in spots *

* "in spots" is a term often applied to the North American regions known as MSP and BUF

Just now, Malacka11 said:

Nice to hear that there's at least a chance for a chance or two to emerge but honestly being teased with feet of snow for Christmas burned me so bad that I'm genuinely numb now. No nerve endings left

Yeah, you Chicagoans (and surrounding CWA's) got the real-deal SEMI treatment by the models. I'm trying to get used to it, but not sure that's ever gonna happen. 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I mean many times we've done fine with mil. February 2020 we had 15" with temperatures over 2ﾟ above average. 

K, I looked and yeah I too scored 18" in Marshall with a mostly warm month. But you'd have to agree that chips need to fall just right to get that outcome and unlike 17-18, this ongoing pattern hasn't been as friendly. To your other post from LC. I agree, each month's "arctic blast" is longer than the previous, thus Dec's was longer than November's. It is still an "arctic blast" or nothing temp regime and we have to get much luckier in the storm timing dept than we were this time around. 

57 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weeklies torch week one, mild week 2 and 3, then normal to colder than normal week 4 through 6. Mild is workable if it's active, so not a terrible look.

 

 

 

Sorry, I don't trust mild for this region. Prove me wrong - anyone

Winter in Detroit. Brace yourselves!

Quote

The broad low will slowly wobble eastward Wednesday night into Thursday, cooling the column enough to
bring about a transition to a rain/snow mix and possibly all snow with minor accumulations on Thursday.

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Don't forget Christmas 2020, it was like a postcard!

Not for me back in Marshall. Tho I got to see it visiting my sister's place in Birch Run. 

53 minutes ago, Baum said:

 

Imagine if he lived in the balmy Mitten! There's a nursery with palm trees lining the front along Ford Rd. He should ditch SEWI and get somewhere he can really get behind, lol

1 minute ago, hardypalmguy said:

MKE only -0.4 as of this morning for this month. With a record high today, we will likely be positive when today’s data is in.

But who cares? Really?

Cooler and tolerable summer. Hardly ran the A/C which was nice. Too much gives me sinus issues. One strong T-storm the entire warm season. Combined with C-19 last January, 2022 is a most forgettable year. Goodbye and good riddance!

Edit: First White Christmas in 5 years was good too ofc 

On 12/27/2022 at 5:03 PM, Frog Town said:

Of course, the cold is gone and the Euro sends a storm to Cleveland putting my area in the perfect spot for a snow storm if there was any cold around.  Good lord!

 

 

Book it