real

i would say that light snow just switched over to Moderate snow in Downtown DC.  Visibility down to a half-mile or so.

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nightmare #1 scenario off the table. Woke up, ground wasn't bare, and radar matches expectations. Must have started early here. Somewhere around a half inch already. 

I'm rooting for @CAPE. If anyone deserves a deform boom in a regionwide storm, it's him. Not that wx cares but I do

What time do you think the snow will be at peak intensity today in the DC metro region?

Back to solid light snow in Downtown DC.  Visibility probably down to a mile or so.  Fakes earlier this morning where fairly large and moist. This latest band seems to have smaller, drier flakes. 

Down to just flurries in Washington DC. Looks like about a half inch fell so so far. 

I think Downtown DC may have just hit its highest accumulation in two years.  Snowing steadily now.  Everything covered, except salted major streets. 

I hope @psu correct because it does feel still a chance for this to be a Feb 10 2010 with a Colder air mass to start. That day a decade ago the snow never really stuck till evening, and then DC got a nice 3 inches after dark. Then dry slot and light sleet. Even at 7 am the next morning, most in DC assumed it was over but then boom at 8 am, which lasted till 5 pm. (At least North of Falls Church, Va).. Probably not likely this time, but at very least, as he noted, the front end should  be more robust this time. Problem is most models suggest the Feb 10  2010 Balimore (nearly 2 feet) is Wilmington this time.

In DC, I am still holding slim hopes that this ends like the Feb. 10 2010 Miller B, which formed just in time to give DC like 10 inches from the coastal.  But i recall that storm was painful for this those who lived in Northern Virginia. So for them, I would be especially annoyed right now that so many on here seemed to root for/suggest that coastal storm was our only hope to really cash in. 

26 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Hahaha we got the scenario PSU told us we needed to root for and it’s a big dud on the coastal for DC.  Oh well, I wasn’t invested in the coastal anyway, always knew there was a good chance that wouldn’t work out for us .  I’m still really excited for a great day tomorrow, 2-5 inches of daytime snow and good temps. 

 Yes, we rooted our way to a Philadelphia Special. 

10 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

There are always fewer people posting inside the beltway than I expect, but I'm one who is more than happy with the 18z VS 12z, at least if you take them at face value. Things are coming together nicely for a good DC snow. 

There are actually relatively few storms of any sort of consequence where I have felt that inside-the-beltway gets totally screwed over, where its a total dud here while areas within a half-hour of Downtown DC cash in.  I think there was one storm in 2006 where DC got like 6 inches and Columbia Maryland got like 20. I think the big bust in March of 2011 or so also left DC with very little while parts of Fairfax got like 8 inches.  But it rarely seems to work out like that. At least until you get to Upper Montgomery or Frederick Counties, we tend to rise or fall together more than it may seem, unless we are talking about 1 to 2 inch or 2 to 4 inch type storms or ice events. 

I hope the models converge that by tomorrow all the forecasts for DC are at least in the  6 to 10 inch range.  It will be a letdown if we don't even get warning level snows out of this. Yes, I know it hasn't snowed in 2 years. But a 3 to 6- inch storm, especially spread over two days and probably not even sure until Monday morning if Part 2 will even arrive, really isn't going to make up for that. 

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Even with the mid-storm torch, it is very generally a 3" storm with the WAA and then a 0" (to the SW) to 5" (to the N and NE) backside event.  So, a region-wide 3-8" storm, which isn't bad for the model that doesn't look quite right.

3 to 8 inches over two days is rather under-whelming, especially for us in the city and close-in suburbs.   You really need to have consistent snow and at least some good rates to keep more than you lose due to melting, etc,    Yes, it will look nice seeing flakes falling. But 3 or 4 inches over 2 days in the city will be almost as much annoyance as it is joy.

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...so the 2 feet would've been even more? Awesome

Yes. Baltimore City flipped to sleet like 8 p.m. that night during PDII, and it sleeted till dawn, when it briefly flipped back to heavy snow.  Had it stayed all snow, which I think it did as close as Reistertown area, Baltimore City would have easily eclipsed 3 feet from that storm. 

One thing that has also changed, due to Internet access and better modeling, etc, is forecasters in DC region used to be extremely skeptical of ever saying more than a foot of snow was possible, until literally a day before hand.  Even PD11, I think it was well into Friday (before a storm that hit Saturday night), that most common folks even had any idea that a major storm of more than 6 to 8 inches was coming.   The legacy and trauma of being burnt bad on the big 2000 East Coast bust was real and long-lasting.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

That storm started showing bug totals about 3 days out 

I don't recall that, but perhaps no one seriously believed it, because it was still mid-December (and was hesitant to believe we could get a record  December snowfall). Also by that point it had been 6 years since we had a big storm DC, so people may have just been extremely skeptical it was possible. 

19 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled

The only major DC snowstorm of past 15 years or so that I recall being not well-modeled ahead of time and kind of sneaking up on us, was the December 2009 storm.  I recall even on the Thursday on the day before the storm, the morning forecasts were still for maybe 4 to 8 inches. And by afternoon, it was looking like 8 to 12 inches. And then that the evening, less than 24 hours before the snow started, forecasts started hinting at a foot plus 

41 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

A clean 5-10 is a nice storm. This isn't that. I've seen storms like this before and they are garbage. You end up with hardly anything on the ground when it's over. Long duration with a front end followed by warming and rain to wash the first half away.

I agree. Even two years ago, DC had a snowstorm that lasted 2 days, and dropped a foot from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. It was a great storm, but I imagine most people don't even remember it, because it was easy to forget.  And that stayed all snow, for two days, but I think because there was a lull, there was considerable melting during the lull, especially in the city.

41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How much snow is a BECS?  Have we established that?  

I think in Washington DC proper, it's this...  Maybe a tad different in Baltimore and suburbs north and west

SECS -- 4 to 12

MECS -- 12 to 18

HECS 18 to 30

BECS 30 Plus

Just flipped to predominately light snow in Shaw DC

mostly rain in DC, but a few pingers can be  heard sporadically. 

41 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

In 15 years of living in the city I can't recall ever seeing ice accretion due to freezing rain.. I look forward to this event! 

We have had ice events. I've even seen non-salted downtown DC sidewalks covered in ice at times,  including one storm a few years ago that started in the evening and persisted into the next afternoon.  What i have never seen, and which the media almost always over hypes beforehand, is an ice event that actually results in ice-covered streets, except for perhaps some side streets in far Upper Northwest DC

Kind of odd how many people have told me in past few days -- ranging from friends to the grocery clerk -- that "I hear a snowstorm is coming for Christmas" or "I hear we are going to have a White Christmas".... Who is spreading this? And based off what this far ahead of time? That frontal passage??? I haven't watched local weather, but are they really already saying this? If so, seems like somebody is setting people up for a possible big disappointment. ...

Heavy Snow/Sleet mix in  Downtown DC, but in last few minutes sleets seems to be winning out. Big ice pellets.  But all streets covered in white now

After a brief lull, Moderate snow in Downtown DC. Even heavily traveled, salted, roads turning slushy.

Still seems to be all snow in Downtown DC. -- Officially a car topper event but not sticking to pavement.

Already seems to be more sleet pellets than flurries falling in downtown Washington DC