real

Weird. Seeing reports on Twitter of “heavy sleet” already in Rockville. But still Light snow downtown 

2 minutes ago, SchvoniWx said:

I am so pleasantly surprised right now, nice coating of snow already and steadily coming down. Way more intense than I expected for this time frame!

26.8°F ~ 19.6°F @ 4:54 AM, SE DC

"Way more intense?"  There are literally just flurries in downtown, 3 miles away from SE

Flurries Downtown DC. Sticking to car windshields instantly as it falls, but still not robust enough to be considered even light snow.

16 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

it's not even a city really - it's just an unincorporated part of western Henrico County near Richmond.  It's like Seven Corners (Ffx County) or something showing up on a map.

It’s basically a nice outdoor mall, with new apartment communities built around  it. Also, a lot of diversity there, by Richmond standards. Think Columbia Maryland 

1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Seems to be haulin' ass though which is going to cut down the QPF

 And scary, because most storms this winter seem to move through even quicker than had been modeled. Even that rain event two nights ago, was here and gone in just a few hours. 

30 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

I would not be at all disappointed with a feb 14, 07 sleet/snow storm repeat; it’s one of my favorite storms of all time. Nearly 7 inches of sleet in Winchester and a glacier for the next month. 

I remember this storm. I think I went to bed in DC expecting to wake up to a lot of snow. I woke, and thought, "Yes, there is a lot of snow on the roads.'  But as I left for work or wherever, I realized I was driving though inches and inches of unplowed sleet on DC city streets. It was nasty.  I think I went of out of town, but recall then hearing stories of how it all froze solid that night -- before DC could plow the sleet away -- and everything turned into an inches-thick coat of solid  ice on DC streets, for days. 

Radar has filled in nicely southwest of DC, which looks like should assure this will continue until after sunset when it should quickly get very icy

Sleet here in Downtown DC too -- Maybe just in time... https://twitter.com/dcfireems/status/1360681072527368195?s=20

28 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 It sure my county has ever been under an ISW.  Not that I can remember but I’m sure it’s happened 

 I think I saw on Twitter this is the first ISW in DC in a dozen years.

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Same old here in CC. Colder surfaces accreting. Some trees just wet though. Roads fine, even the car is mainly just wet. 

That is weird, because every car parked in the lowlands of DC is encased in thick ice. 

It actually seems to be getting colder in downtown. Ice building up even on mulch and sidewalks that were just wet this morning are getting icy. If this continues into evening, could be really nasty here 

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I mean it's 28 degrees, it should accrete, but the sun angle/UHI this late in February is very real.

Near Downtown DC, it seems to be accretion on some trees, but not on other trees, even in some cases right next to each other. I find this to be unusual. 

Legit freezing rain near Downtown DC.  Cars, all metal objects and unsalted brick sidewalks coated in ice. Street and salted-sidewalks seem just wet. 

Steady light snow in Downtown DC. -- First hints of becoming a car topper.  (Edit: Radar shows a very small band of snow, moving north to south through the east side of DC)

Not sure the temperature but misty drizzle and extremely light snow flakes in DC. 

38 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah but sometimes lighter precip is actually more problematic in these temps. It’s only forecast to be in the upper 20s to low 30s for Saturday/Sunday.  If you wanna see some pretty trees and deck railings then showers and drizzle will do the trick.  Now, on Tuesday, if it’s really 20 degrees then yeah heavier rain will accrete and if you’re rooting for a high impact event then yeah root for heavies.  Just my $0.02. 

The thing I thought that was odd about the LWX Watch was where it said "Travel could become nearly impossible." --  -- That is pretty harsh wording, usually only reserved for the biggest and most troublesome events.     And modern ice storms around here rarely seem to cause too much havoc on major interstates, especially when forecast ahead of time considering the amount of pre treating and salting that occurs now.

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month!   This looks like a match to every big DC snow period.

 

And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have  suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. 

Yea, but even among those 5 events, the only one that would really been that big of storm, if i recall correctly, is the two-day Miller B two weeks ago that hit NYC. Ji has been correct. Most things seem to have also trended drier, faster, etc, as they have approached this region this winter.   And many of these events were not even that close to stay all-snow, despite what the models suggested was possible a few days ahead of time. . I could live with missing a storm because you live in the city and the snow/rain line sets up in Fairfax... But most of these storms have been an all-encompassing screw job for the entire close-in DC region, and it all just seems to fall apart on approach. 

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

DCA really is so much warmer than it’s surroundings. 

Stating to remind me  of the UHI effect I saw a few times in NYC.  There have been times in very marginal storms where there was no accumulation at all in Times Square/Midtown, but if you just walked 5 blocks west to 10th or 11th Ave near the Hudson, you would find 3 or 4 inches of snow had fallen..

Light Rain/snow mix in DC lowland neighborhoods near Downtown

6 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Spring is coming but we need a few more big hits before that happens. 

Going to be hard to keep people in DC and NOVA invested in this winter much longer.. This was supposed to be the one storm that was A) Easy to track.  B ) Overrunning and hard to miss us C ) Cold and all snow D) Depending on model runs, wedged between jackpot just north or a jackpot just south, so in a good position. Yet, it looks like we are going to still fail.   

6 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Baltimore just hangs on to snow on the NAM...verbatim its nice cuz its wetter but getting too close for mixing

 And seasonal trend for I-95 seems to be the mix line always creeps a bit farther north, and faster, than the models suggest... (And that also includes Philadelphia and New York areas during their storms).

1 minute ago, chris21 said:

As a resident of DC for almost 30 years... it does snow here contrary to popular opinion. I don’t think this will have any problem sticking. Every time we have a snow drought period it’s really impacted the boards psyche. 

I am  not saying it won't stick, but one key of a  good DC snow is at some point you need at least some good rates, or you tend to lose almost as much as you are gaining, especially if this is broken up over two daylight cycles.  Temperatures may help this time, but temperatures usually end up warmer than modeled in the city, absent at least some good rates at some point during the "storm"

Part of the issue is also the duration, and we are talking about 2 waves over 2 days. Maybe the cold this time will work a bit more magic than past storms. But even in  D.C and close-in suburbs, I don't know how you can feel that confident that .6 of precip over two days is really going to get the job done, when you consider how dense environments/pavement have a tendency to eat away at snow, even with below-freezing temperatures.  A 2 to 4 inch snow over two days could easily really end being a very minor event, when you see what remains.

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

DC would double their seasonal total.

DC has been on the losing end of modeled gradients like that all winter, so highly doubt many in the city would be comfortable with a GFS-like solution, if it holds. Thankfully, Euro and Nam look farther south