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real

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Posts posted by real

  1. 1 hour ago, Twilly05 said:

    I think this ends up a true cutter (hello Pittsburgh) or it hugs the coast. Growing up and living my whole life at the top of the bay, I don’t remember too many storms going straight north thru dc to central pa. Just my two cents which is all it’s worth. B)

    Where did the Low track in that storm in February 2007? DC got about 6 inches of snow, and then got pounded with insanely heavy sleet for hours. They were literally plowing the sleet off city streets... Didn't that storm come directly up the Bay?

  2. Just now, losetoa6 said:

    I think the airport was 8-10" I heard at last check  . Should snow all day there

    Cheyenne getting smoked 18-20" otg

    The airport had 11, but it seems to be a fluke compared to rest of Denver Metro. Most of the city woke up to like 2 to 4 inches, and even if they get another 6 to 8 (latest forecast) today, it will be a pretty major bust.  Can you imagine if that had happened here ---  If we had models a few days ago showing we could get  60 inches of snow, and official forecasts was for 20, and and then we woke up to 2 to 4 inches. :lol:

  3. Tomorrow anniversary of the March 2013 Bust. Forecast for 8 to 10 inches downtown and up to 15 in suburbs, but DC never accumulated.  Massive non accumulating flakes for about an hour, and then rain. 

  4. 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

    Things getting rough on the highways here.  Multi-vehicle accident caused by icy roads at the I-81 bridge including three tractor-trailers has closed the northbound lanes.  Multiple other accidents up and down the WV stretch of 81 also.  Then there are difficulties like these on secondary roads:

    Hampshire Co 42 Fire, 1 / Multiple vehicles stuck / Cumberland Road at Harriotts Hill. 
    Mineral Captain 37 on scene requesting FD to shut the roadway down advising multiple vehicles stuck. DOH is on location

    Part of DC Beltway also closed due to accidents 

  5. 1 minute ago, Amped said:

    I swear this region used to occasionally get storms that overperformed.

    Lets just move onto an early and sustained spring. Last year, between the Covid lockdowns and the cold that I think persisted into May, Spring was lost. It will be good to have a strong one this year....

  6. 5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

    Still hope the precip comes to fruition.  Would still be fun!

    Kind of how I feel at this stage. People were saying last week's ice storm was the worst in DC in nearly a decade. Wonder if we top that. 

  7. Just now, 87storms said:

    Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Global have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups.

    I think people just need to start putting more stock into seasonal trends.  Every winter event this year, at least in DC, has featured a quicker flip to mix and less snow than models suggested.  In other years, however, it seemed like every winter event went the other direction, where snow hung on longer and forecasts were always busting a bit low. 

    • Like 4
  8. Just now, North Balti Zen said:

    26 and rain before daybreak. Guess we will see what a legit ice event looks like in the corridors.

    If this were to stay all frz, what is anyone best guess for how much ice we are facing? I've lost track of what total precip is expected, if you cut out snow and sleet.  It's clearly all rain now in downtown dc, and you can see it already starting to build up on the streets and sidewalks.

  9. 3 minutes ago, real said:

    I don't really think its a bust -- ... But just more evidence that meteorologists who communicate with the public probably should revert back to how it was in the 80s and 90s -- when weather professionals would rarely talk about possible accumulations until the day before the storm hits,.   Putting out public snow maps two or three days ahead of time, seems to just set up unrealistic expectations and can cause more confusion than it helps.

    Something similar happened in the Monday storm in the Pittsburgh - Buffalo corridor. Initial forecasts were for 6 to 12 inches of snow in many of those places, with snow maps issued days ahead of time. But then the sleet pushed in way, way faster and farther North. You could see it coming on the models the day ahead of time, but most of the public never got the message. And the The public was not happy,. 

  10. Just now, jewell2188 said:

    Been all sleet in chantilly. This may be one of the biggest bust in quite a while.

    I don't really think its a bust -- ... But just more evidence that meteorologists who communicate with the public probably should revert back to how it was in the 80s and 90s -- when weather professionals would rarely talk about possible accumulations until the day before the storm hits,.   Putting out public snow maps two or three days ahead of time, seems to just set up unrealistic expectations and can cause more confusion than it helps.

  11. 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

    No, it’s pouring snow in Union bridge. There’s three inches on the ground in an arc from near where deck is staying over to northern Hoff. They are gonna kill it.

    just got quiet here. Either flipped to snow or it’s raining.

    Yes, Union Bridge -- like 90 minutes from DC, even now in Covid-era traffic,  in what is really an entirely different climate. I don't think most people in the metro area are going to be upset or shocked if they get snow.  A true forum divider is when DC is raining and Clarksburg or Columbia get 10 inches. 

  12. 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

    I feel your pain this is going to rip the sub thread in half between the people who it is dumping and for people who got nothing. 

    Seems like if this fails, it's going to be a pretty universal fail, with sleet already reported from Bel Air to Frederick, so likely falls short of a true forum divider. 

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