real

It actually seems to be getting colder in downtown. Ice building up even on mulch and sidewalks that were just wet this morning are getting icy. If this continues into evening, could be really nasty here 

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I mean it's 28 degrees, it should accrete, but the sun angle/UHI this late in February is very real.

Near Downtown DC, it seems to be accretion on some trees, but not on other trees, even in some cases right next to each other. I find this to be unusual. 

Legit freezing rain near Downtown DC.  Cars, all metal objects and unsalted brick sidewalks coated in ice. Street and salted-sidewalks seem just wet. 

Steady light snow in Downtown DC. -- First hints of becoming a car topper.  (Edit: Radar shows a very small band of snow, moving north to south through the east side of DC)

Not sure the temperature but misty drizzle and extremely light snow flakes in DC. 

38 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah but sometimes lighter precip is actually more problematic in these temps. It’s only forecast to be in the upper 20s to low 30s for Saturday/Sunday.  If you wanna see some pretty trees and deck railings then showers and drizzle will do the trick.  Now, on Tuesday, if it’s really 20 degrees then yeah heavier rain will accrete and if you’re rooting for a high impact event then yeah root for heavies.  Just my $0.02. 

The thing I thought that was odd about the LWX Watch was where it said "Travel could become nearly impossible." --  -- That is pretty harsh wording, usually only reserved for the biggest and most troublesome events.     And modern ice storms around here rarely seem to cause too much havoc on major interstates, especially when forecast ahead of time considering the amount of pre treating and salting that occurs now.

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month!   This looks like a match to every big DC snow period.

 

And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have  suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. 

Yea, but even among those 5 events, the only one that would really been that big of storm, if i recall correctly, is the two-day Miller B two weeks ago that hit NYC. Ji has been correct. Most things seem to have also trended drier, faster, etc, as they have approached this region this winter.   And many of these events were not even that close to stay all-snow, despite what the models suggested was possible a few days ahead of time. . I could live with missing a storm because you live in the city and the snow/rain line sets up in Fairfax... But most of these storms have been an all-encompassing screw job for the entire close-in DC region, and it all just seems to fall apart on approach. 

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

DCA really is so much warmer than it’s surroundings. 

Stating to remind me  of the UHI effect I saw a few times in NYC.  There have been times in very marginal storms where there was no accumulation at all in Times Square/Midtown, but if you just walked 5 blocks west to 10th or 11th Ave near the Hudson, you would find 3 or 4 inches of snow had fallen..

Light Rain/snow mix in DC lowland neighborhoods near Downtown

6 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Spring is coming but we need a few more big hits before that happens. 

Going to be hard to keep people in DC and NOVA invested in this winter much longer.. This was supposed to be the one storm that was A) Easy to track.  B ) Overrunning and hard to miss us C ) Cold and all snow D) Depending on model runs, wedged between jackpot just north or a jackpot just south, so in a good position. Yet, it looks like we are going to still fail.   

6 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Baltimore just hangs on to snow on the NAM...verbatim its nice cuz its wetter but getting too close for mixing

 And seasonal trend for I-95 seems to be the mix line always creeps a bit farther north, and faster, than the models suggest... (And that also includes Philadelphia and New York areas during their storms).

1 minute ago, chris21 said:

As a resident of DC for almost 30 years... it does snow here contrary to popular opinion. I don’t think this will have any problem sticking. Every time we have a snow drought period it’s really impacted the boards psyche. 

I am  not saying it won't stick, but one key of a  good DC snow is at some point you need at least some good rates, or you tend to lose almost as much as you are gaining, especially if this is broken up over two daylight cycles.  Temperatures may help this time, but temperatures usually end up warmer than modeled in the city, absent at least some good rates at some point during the "storm"

Part of the issue is also the duration, and we are talking about 2 waves over 2 days. Maybe the cold this time will work a bit more magic than past storms. But even in  D.C and close-in suburbs, I don't know how you can feel that confident that .6 of precip over two days is really going to get the job done, when you consider how dense environments/pavement have a tendency to eat away at snow, even with below-freezing temperatures.  A 2 to 4 inch snow over two days could easily really end being a very minor event, when you see what remains.

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

DC would double their seasonal total.

DC has been on the losing end of modeled gradients like that all winter, so highly doubt many in the city would be comfortable with a GFS-like solution, if it holds. Thankfully, Euro and Nam look farther south 

Not sure most will care because many probably doubted the forecast in the first place, but this a pretty big  bust for. LWX. Forecast was for 4 to 6 in DC, and many parts of the city  saw zero accumulation.

All rain in downtown DC. Not even any mangled flakes mixed in.

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yup. I’m west of the fall line at 325’ or so, which definitely has made a difference in these kinds of events in the past. I’ve mentioned this in discussions on here with H20, with 12/5/09 being one event that really sticks out as one that produced here but not so much in your neck of the woods.

I lived in Baltimore in the early 2000s, and I remember a few small events back then when Baltimore would end up with 1 to 3 or even 3 to 5 inches, while very little fell in DC.  Now, our fate seems more closely connected than had been the case. Maybe just coincidence since it seems like we get fewer smallish snow events in general now. But I do wonder if something else is at work.

2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Ehh, it is what is is -- actually, I feel more for the Baltimore city/county crew, they've gotten screwed on snow more than most this year. You're only a few miles to the west, but glad to see you cash in more in situations like this.

Baltimore City used to do o.k. even when DC failed in marginal events. I wonder if the UHI effect, due to more growth in the corridor, is playing a role, or if climate warming is pushing the fail zone farther north.  

Just now, dallen7908 said:

We got 1/8" of snow before changing back to rain about 15 minutes ago.  Hopefully, it'll change back to snow.

I'd be shocked if DCA ends up reporting even a half-inch. Probably just a trace over there, which should put us well on-our-way to having a below-average season for snowfall.  Normal for this point in the year is 9.8. Before today, DCA was at 3.5

It's basically stopped in downtown DC.  Just a few flakes mixed with drizzle. 

2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

Road stickage in DC at 35? I can't get my driveway to cave at 32.5 

I am near downtown DC, and the only thing accumulating here is puddles of water. Some light slush building up on car tops, but even there, only on the cars that have been parked in one spot for days...

5 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

I'm not sure I buy it verbatim, but my sympathies to our Baltimore residents. 

 

Well, all you have to do is look at the traffic cameras. There is clearly a nasty UHL effect in the cities.  Elevation seems to help in the immediate suburbs north of Washington DC, and northern part of Baltimore Beltway some, but this storm is what it is, and it's not hard to see if you just look at easily available and accurate traffic cameras  https://chart.maryland.gov/trafficcameras/index.php

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Not sure Baltimore is NW but ok

Most Traffic cameras show wet and no accumulation in Baltimore too, especially inside the Beltway and even many along 695.

https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/baltimore-md-21217

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

micro agressions on a weather board...   Get a grip!

You get a grip and look up the definition.