wolfie09

Gfs is like groundhogs day lol One after another, at least we see LES behind each one

HRRR Extra long range has a solid WSW flow develop(and still snowing), we'll see how this looks by tomorrow lol

One and only notable LES event so far..

Fulton would be good for a 200" season every few years or so, haven't had one in the last 9 even though they have come close.. Maybe we were just over our heads in the 2000s lol

In the 2000s this are was receiving Oswego style snow lol Like 150" a year, now in the 2010s they are hitting 200"-300"routinely lol Pulaski has been the total opposite..

"Pit stop" haha Yeah I've been up in lewis for the last few months, be back down in the pulaski area by months end..

Yeah it's not bad haha.. The real snow country is just to my south, this area seems to do the best when we have more of a SW component to the wind field..

1200 Imby.. Just to the south (few miles) gets up to about 1500-1600 feet asl..

3k nam looks like a scattered mess lol Brings some squalls down to the coast, most of us may have a chance at at least flakes lol

Hi rez models starting to get into range..Temps in the 20s verbatim.. Embedded stronger band on a WSW-SW flow..See how this trends over the next 24 hours..

Canada was active between synoptic and LES..

Gfs doesn't have much of LES event behind the cutter, transient in nature, most see some snow showers..

Decent little clipper on the gfs, drops a few/several inches.. Lower elevations near the lake can't buy a flake lol I hope that changes by the time I get to pulaski..

This is the kind of track we need to make us all happy lol

Nam and rgem with a similar look..

Looks a possible few inches..

How about them GMEN lol Defense really stepping up of late..

Nope not yet lol Estimated closing date is December 23rd, just let my landlord know I'll be out by the first...So somewhere around then lol

Looks like several inches fell just my south, 1/2"-1" here..

Shortwave sliding through on Wednesday ahead of stronger warm air advection late this week will bring rain and snow to region. Temps over higher terrain of eastern Lake Ontario region including Tug Hill and western Dacks should stay cold enough for lake enhanced snow. Some accumulation could occur Wednesday into Wednesday night. ECMWF quite bullish with qpf/snow and seems on higher end of guidance for both. H85 temps of -4c to -6c marginal for all snow and suggest we`ll be looking at situation that is highly dependent on elevation. Will keep this out of HWO for now given most guidance is not as bullish with qpf/snow as ECMWF and since ECMWF showed sharp increase over its previous runs. Beyond this into late this week, upper ridging and warming will provide a warm up with temps rising well above normal Thu into Sat. Deepening long wave trough over central CONUS will then result in cyclogenesis by next weekend with deepening low potentially less than 990mb lifting across the western Great Lakes. At least at this point, primary models are in good agreement with the idea, though NBM temp output shows decent spread Friday and Saturday. Seems we`ll be on the warm side of the system Friday/Saturday (highs potentially as warm as the 50s one or both of these days) with rain first part of the weekend and possibly some gusty winds and increasing lake effect snow chances arriving by late next weekend as colder air arrives from the west. Plenty of time to dive into those details as we work through the upcoming week

Year some darker blues showing up, even a little green lol Sitting at 27° here just some light snow..

According to the NWS annual snowfall map central and northern Oswego average 150"-200" away from the immediate lakeshore, 200"+ for the tug and a bullseye of 300"+ over the highest elevations, we can't afford many dry periods..Carol for example needs at least 20" a week to maintain her average..

That's once in a generation lol We also average a lot more snow (lower elevations) so it takes much more to recover..

Yup probably about a 5% chance pulaski makes it to average this year lol I think they have like an inch this year with the first half of December looking bleak...

Trying it's hardest not to snow here lol