wolfie09

12z HRRR fwiw.. Has a strong band tomorrow morning east of Ontario..My forecast has gone from 7"-10"-16" and now back to 7" lol These WSW type events always put this area on the southern fringes.. Hrrr even has some NW flow as the storm is departing lol

Gfs and euro now forecast covid-19? Lol I kid I kid..

Merry Christmas to all !! Same pattern for years, cutter followed by lake effect followed by another cutter and more lake effect lol A dry start to Sunday night will quickly come to an end as weak low pressure moves by to the northwest swinging a cold front through the area. This will bring some rain and snow showers to the region along with some windy conditions for later Sunday night into Monday. These winds will eventually usher in the next chilly airmass along with the chance for lake effect snow east and southeast of the Lakes from Monday afternoon through at least a portion of Tuesday depending on how quickly a large area of high pressure builds in across the area from the west

Going to be hard to predict the snowfall off Ontario lol I don't think the band stays put for more than an hour or two...

Rgem pretty much looks like the NWS forecast for L Ontario..

HRW models showing between 4"-6" overnight for kbuf which matches the hi rez Canadian and HRRR, albeit razor thin lol

Nice little bump up for pulaski from 10" to 16".. We'll see lol I think the band will be moving a lot..

Pulaski has 3" all "winter"

18z rgem..

Same can be said at the end of the HI rez Canadian, at least we are starting to get into range (off Ontario)lol

Some of the SR models are dropping the band south much quicker than the NWS says.. flakes. Expect LES snowbands to remain across Jefferson/Lewis counties and the northern Tug Saturday morning, before shifting more to the east of the Lake across central/southern Jefferson, far northern Oswego and central Lewis counties Saturday afternoon and evening as winds become more westerly.

Long long range HRRR solid for the pulaski area with several inches by sat morning with the initial band.. We'll see how it trends over the next day or two as we get closer..

Gfs mainly WSW off Ontario.. Now casting here we come..

Looks like it won't start off Ontario until early sat morning, lasting until Sunday morning..Wind direction is going to be a challenge (when isn't it lol) especially if the band moves around a lot..

Can't speak for ERIE but the European models continue to show this as mainly a westerly event off Ontario..It all comes down to exact track..Still a while away before we can turn to meso models off Ontario..

12z RGEM

Icon with the ADHD band lol

European is pretty much a dumb down version of the rgem..

Rgem vs NAM is like night and day for my back yard.. I expect the heaviest to be just to my north which is ok but I don't expect to get almost nothing lol

That's not the entire event off Ontario as most guidance has it ending between 12z-18z Sunday.. Rgem has a healthy looking band Sunday morning..(Granted in its long range)

It's one of the only models giving CNY several inches, not so sure about that lol

Gfs