wolfie09

Fall

Don't feel bad we hit 80° as well lol Forecast high was 74° but the sun came out. Clouds starting to roll back in and drop temps, getting a bit breezy..

A warm front draped across western New York early this morning will be pushed northward during the course of the day courtesy of a surface wave over Lower Michigan. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase rapidly in the coming hours with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2 inches supporting the likelihood for some heavy rain. Most areas will pick up at least a half inch of needed rainfall, although localized 1 to 2 inch amounts will be possible within the track of better organized convection. As the forcing for the widespread convection moves east and marginally drier air overspreads the region tonight...shower and thunderstorm coverage will diminish from west to east. While the passage of a cool front will maintain the chance for some showers on Friday...the majority of the day/region will be rain free. The highest potential for any showers Friday will be east of Lake Ontario and across the Southern Tier.

GFS has been fairly consistent on a stronger band forming this evening somewhere between Kroc and KART or surrounding areas.. Guess we'll see how good it is lol

Hrw Fv3 has 5" at Kroc lol Going to be more hit or miss than widespread..

Got a good chuckle out of last night's UK for kbuf lol

Expected rainfall..

Hopefully this becomes a bit more organized later this morning, early afternoon lol

Some decent storms/showers moving through CNY, actually seeing a few flashes of lightning and a little thunder.. Models don't have much here till tomorrow afternoon so not expecting much out of this batch..

Couple tidbits from the afternoon Disco.. After this evening`s convection dies down, a break in the action will ensue until the approach of a stronger surface low and associated right entrance region of the upper jet for Thursday. Strong large scale ascent coupled with PWAT values up to near 2 inches feeding northward from the tropicals and modest instability will allow for what looks like several surges of rainfall across the area on Thursday. Widespread 1-2 inch amounts of rainfall seem likely with this system as it slides through the area on Thursday. A slow wind down to showers seems likely Thursday night as a trailing wave keeps some degree of synoptic ascent plaguing the area into Thursday night. The pattern will become more active again early next week as a mid level closed low evolves over the central US, forcing the frontal zone across the Ohio Valley back northward into the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring increasing rain chances early next week as humidity and instability move back into the region with increasing southwesterly return flow around high pressure anchored off the southeast coast. The GFS and subsequently the NBM looks too fast with the arrival of rain chances over the weekend, and our preference is to go with the slower ECMWF/GEM solution. With this in mind, a chance of showers will arrive in Western NY by Sunday afternoon, with a better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday areawide as the approaching mid level closed low forces a low level boundary to stall near or over the eastern Great Lakes.

Next 5 days..

Cold front today returns as a warm front tomorrow, winds flip from NE to S/SW.. Given the clouds and showers surface temps shouldn't warm much but I'd imagine DPs will be on the rise..

Thanks to this front and clouds temps "chilling" in the mid 60s, I'm sure we'll warm a little this afternoon especially if we see some sun.. Sizzlecuse still in the low 80s under SW flow.. Fulton in the low 70s under NW flow..

This potential band tomorrow will be the real rain producer, whoever gets under probably receives a couple inches..

Cool, damp, on and off showers so far today..(still muggy lol) Only 0.04" recorded so far, temp is 68° with a forecast high of 73°..

Winter_Summary_2020-21 (1) (1).pdf

3k

Nam FWIW

To our west a more potent shortwave will dig a deeper trough across the Central Great Lakes Wednesday Night. Meanwhile to our south tropical system Elsa will be sending moisture northward, with a deep plume of both Gulf of Mexico moisture and Elsa moisture flowing northward ahead of this digging trough. This moisture will arrive late Wednesday Night and through the day Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms, of which some containing heavy downpours will be upon our region. Overall severe threat will be lower on Thursday than Wednesday with deep warm cloud depth of 12K feet, weaker lapse rates (warmer air aloft) and tall skinny CAPE. The bigger threat may actually be the heavy rain that any training clusters of heavier showers and thunderstorms could bring localized flooding.

Sizzlecuse did see it's 14th(?) 90° day yesterday... Sizzle Sizzle

I finished with 1.10" of liquid overnight.. More chances for storms this afternoon..

Non stop lightning with this Storm, raining 2.5" per hour, thunder is deafening.. Lost power for a few minutes..

Some nice convection this evening, starting to rain pretty good..We have had thunder and lightning the last couple hours..

Our attention will now turn to a a convectively enhanced shortwave over Ontario. This feature will move ESE and across Lake Ontario overnight, with an associated W-E oriented surface boundary moving south across the lake before it stalls somewhere over WNY. There`s still a variety of scenarios for convection this evening/overnight, from nothing across all of WNY, to at least scattered convection south of Lake Ontario and more widespread convection east of the lake. For this reason, SPC has added locations just south and east of Lake Ontario in a Marginal Risk for SVR weather. Will need to keep a close eye on this as we progress through the evening and night. Have nudge POPs up to reflect this scenario with higher confidence for measurable precipitation east of Lake Ontario with less confidence over the Niagara Frontier, Genesee Valley, and Western Finger lakes. The area with the least likely chance for any rainfall tonight is toward the Southern Tier being most displaced from the shortwave trough and stalling surface boundary

Yeah we'll see how they look after crossing Ontario lol