Rtd208

Larry Cosgrove still holding fairly strong that there won't be much change to a colder and possibly snowier pattern in his longer term outlook until the end of January. Although he did say there could be a colder period early in the new month. All is not lost but his reason for keeping the east coast on the warmer side is the ridging over Cuba and Hispaniola. Also when the pattern does become more favorable for snow in late January he once again mentions the snow chances will increase between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains but did not mention the east coast. So take it for what it is.

Accumulation on grassy surfaces and car tops followed by a flooding nor'easter with 60 mph winds. Book it.

Honestly, I am starting to think we may not see anything substantial winter weather wise until at least the 3rd week of January but we'll see.

Posted this in some of the other threads so I figured I would post it here as well. For those that didn't read Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter he basically stated that between January 1st thru about the 23rd he likes the euro weeklies with a "washed out" cold look with snow potential being good for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. He did say winter will eventually get here but the I-95 cities may have to wait longer which to me means we may not see any appreciable winter weather until the second half of January which is in line with what some others are thinking. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see much of anything substantial until the last week of January. If that is the case lets hope good things come to those who wait. We'll see. Disclaimer: Not saying this is how things will play out but it is a possibility.

Slight improvements aren't going to get it done IMO. We would need to see continued improvements.

DT (WxRisk) has posted his final winter outlook. https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!13380&ithint=file%2cpptx&authkey=!AC_lsieTX6tAQh0

Larry Cosgrove issued his winter outlook on 10/31 on his Facebook page. You will need to scroll down to find it. Also, read his replies to the comments under his post for some more clarification. https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

Just a summer temp recap here. May: 2 days 90+ temps June: 4 days 90+ temps July: 18 days 90+ temps August: 8 days 90+ temps September: 3 days 90+ temps October: 1 day 90+ temps Total: 36 days 90+ temps

Tropical system or remnants on the east coast (specifically the northeast US coast).

This is just an early guesstimate, but I think landfall will occur between Miami and Vero Beach Florida early Monday morning (2 am - 8 am) as a cat 4-(5??) then emerge out in the GOM with a secondary landfall in the western Florida panhandle as a cat 3-(4??).

Since May I have had 32 days with a temp of 90 degrees or above here thru August 26th with most of the days occurring from late June thru July.

Really great video by DT (WxRisk) laying out all the possibilities over the next couple of weeks. https://youtu.be/OietW1ud-to

DT (WxRisk) https://youtu.be/hTugbiit9hM

Larry Cosgrove released his 2018/19 Winter Outlook. November: Temp much above normal/Confidence Level 5 out of 10 December: Temp much above normal/Confidence level 3 out of 10 January: Temp near normal/Confidence level 3 out of 10 February: Temp much below normal/Confidence level 5 out of 10 March: Temp much below normal/Confidence level 4 out of 10 Snow/Ice Potential: Critical (which is good for snow lovers)

Yep I was just going to post that. He is on the warmer train until late December.

Interesting, Larry Cosgrove still thinks milder air returns to most of the US including the Eastern Seaboard between November 7th and Christmas. It will be interesting to see if he will be right..

This is a great blog post by John (Earthlight) https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/10/13/weekender-social-media-stormy-pattern-ahead/

Interesting discussion from Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter last night in the longer term outlook. Not set in stone obviously but basically thinking milder temps from November 7 thru December 26 then a fairly cold and stormy January thru March. Winter could be close to 2009-10.

I actually think this October will feature some high wind events in the mid-atlantic and northeast. As far as one specific storm I think it will be a major nor'easter that will get things started for the fall and winter months.

Frying Pan Ocean Cam Live https://youtu.be/deG4NxkouGM

That's what she said.

If anyone is interested Matt Lanza put together a list comprised of meteorologists, storm chasers etc. to be able to track Florence on Twitter. https://twitter.com/mattlanza/lists/florence

DT (Wxrisk) has posted an early winter preview video for the upcoming 2018-19 winter season. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6fT7Ge7mWE&feature=youtu.be