Amped

My bar is 1 EF1 over the course of 3 days. It's that kind of year.

Might have some anger management issues.

Snowing hard now.  Maybe 1/2"

It's puking fatties, which is also the name of my favorite band from Short Pump.

Hrrr has a mesoblob that forms over western VA and crushes us for a few hours. My favorite hrrr run so far.

7 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

21z HRRR looks North.

Some regression to the mean kicking in.  Givin the history of these kinds of events its never a good idea to completely buy into the south trend.  The furthest south model run within 48hrs of the storm is much more likely to end up the laughing stock than it is to actually verify.

Lol we're gonna steal this thing from North of the Pike.

The last 3 gfs runs have the snow axis in a pretty similar spot. 

Ridge on Euro is too far east at 120. Not liking this run.

Just now, Terpeast said:

Slowing down a good bit now. Think my final total will be between 5 and 5.5 inches

Same here these tiny flakes aren't really accumulating too well.

Impressed with that band along I66. Wasn't supposed to set up that far south.

Models don't show it ending here until between 3 and 4 pm, and maybe some squalls after that.

Bigger flakes back again.  Easily going to make WSW.

If the HRRR does as bad as it did in the January 2019  storm with this one most of us will get well over a foot.

It's pretty much a given that this is going to over perform for most of the area at this point.   The question is by how much?

This setup is kind of similar to the January 2019 event. Hopefully the backend overperforms.

Typical Nam, goes from least snowiest model to snowiest model in a few runs.

Christmas trees finally getting coverd with snow, in the dumpster.

Anyone know what this white stuff is that keeps falling out of the sky? Did the birds form a pact and decide to all take a dump on us at once or something?

Euro took away the day 10 storm that was going to wipe New England off the map for good.  Oh well, maybe in February.

Baby steps.

Never know when the wind is going to start and stop with these things.   Peak gust were between 5:15 to 5:45.  Pretty calm now with the squall line overhead on radar.

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Wind has really calmed down here. Eerily quiet.

Yeah was a lot windier an hour ago.

Only another 3 or 4 hrs and a couple of squall lines left to go.