PDIII
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Posts posted by PDIII
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Just now, BxEngine said:
Youre a lost cause.
Unless the medical community steps up to the plate and starts feeding more accurate information, I really think stuff like this is a sign of things to come:
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11 hours ago, BxEngine said:
Oh, is that so? Why’s that?
First off... if there was an actual capacity issue.. then Javits would be full right now... the central park thingy would be full and that navy ship would be taking the non covid cases..
But they are not (unless you want to prove me wrong by walking over and taking some pictures.. like the real youtube reporters do)
My bet is that the hospital are losing money right now due to lower volumes.. they make bank on ER cases when crazy moms take their kids in because they hit their head or they get a rash.. thats money train has dried up...
I wouldnt be surprised if we start seeing some health care systems going bankrupt or becoming insolvent during this period.
Secondly.. this artical doesn't reflect reality. If someone is in Cardiac arrest or their heart stopped beating and Paramedics think that they have a shot to live by getting them to the hospital.. that patient is being transported.. I dont care what the article says or what bs policy was made...someone is gonna do their job and try to save that patient.
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6 minutes ago, supernovasky said:
New York City no longer accepting patients that are pulseless at the scene.
This was the most lol of the lol post that I have lol'd at!!! I havent even read the article.. but this MSM Alarmism at it best!
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14 minutes ago, poolz1 said:
We set a cooler on the back patio...groceries that require refrigeration go into the cooler for 72 hour before bringing inside. All other groceries are left in the car for 72 hours until we bring them inside. If we need something before the 72 hours, we sanitize. Maybe its overkill?
The stress of our first grocery run is what pushed us to do this. Handling everything, items sitting on the kitchen floor and on the counter, then touching the fridge handles and pantry cabinet we realized we had to sanitize all kinds of items and surfaces when we were done...Waiting 72 hour just offers a little peace of mind.
Good point.. I was thinking that I need to take more form precautions. When every I go to the grocery store the first thing I do is go the the grapes section and grab a bag open them and put them on the baby seat thing so I can snack on them on my way around the store.
Last night I when I was doing it.. people were giving weird looks.. an then I realized that I was touching the grocery cart bar.. then the grapes.. then putting the grapes in my mouth..
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If I was the president I would offer every single government employee early retirement buy out (three times their normal salary) and go in to the property management business..
I would offer one caveat.. if the employee feels that they are essentially.. they can stay on.
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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Omg some of these video conference calls are
I WFH 100%.. but now everyone else is 100% WFH. So my conference calls have increased three fold since this all started and I have theory why this is happening.. first off.. I write software for the Fed Govt. That naturally means that for every one of me (the one that does the work).. there are 12 feds that that "talk about the work".
When you make those 12 people go in to an office everyday it gives them the feeling that they are actually doing something.. like they are contributing.. they get to do there status meetings and check their emails.. maybe drum up some drama with their coworkers..
But then you make them go home.. I think they quickly realize the truth... and the truth is that they dont actually do anything.
So in order to make them feel more relevant.. they schedule more meetings.
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3 hours ago, mappy said:
Good suggestion @C.A.P.E.
Lets move all COVID chatter here, and please TRY to keep it as politics free as you can. I know that there will be mentions of pressers, articles, statements, facts, etc. But please try and not to throw blame around, put down others for there stances, etc.
Stay well, friends. Don't make me delete your posts.
you should have let me start the thread.. we could have named it the pdiii plague
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4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:
I suggested this a while back- that we make a separate thread for COVID-19 discussion. We are all living it, and it is natural to want to discuss it. There is simply no way to keep politics completely out of the discussion, however. Even those who are "attempting" not to, are often dancing on the edges, and showing their political leanings.
I know there is virtually nothing in the sports world to discuss, but we have beer and other less serious topics. It would be nice to have banter be just banter again. A diversion from what has become the everyday reality.
Just my thoughts. I will shut up now.
I think we can talk about and debate COVID 19 from a numerical, scientific and social perspective and leave politics out of it 100%! I have wackadoodle political leanings.. so I stay away from that like its the plague (no pun intended).
It is close enough to weather to be relevant.. also.. the weather channel used to show the flu map... maybe they still do..
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8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:
Nobody should discriminate against anybody because you don’t know how an individual lives their life. That said, way of life over there is disgusting. There’s a reason a lot of diseases begin over there. The population density combined with these disgusting meat markets is a recipe for disaster
yeah.. this video is a powerpoint on testing methodology of corona virus.. in the beginning it goes in to detail about the wet markets:
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I really dont like to buy in to crazy theories.. but when I hear things like this.. I am simply flabbergasted. Last night at the grocery store there was a young man walking behind me talking on his cell phone.. His exact words were this:
"I am out.. Can you believe that sh$t? They let me out on my own recog on a gun charge.. they be lettin everyone out.. "
then I see this cases where someone was trying to have a cookout and they are locked up:
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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:
You.. trust China's numbers?
No... not one bit. I think that they have had a steady (if not exponential increase) of cases and deaths.. even after they lifted much of the quarantine and lockdown restrictions.
I think that they had a 2 months of data.. without any social distancing.. and then a month of data with social distancing.. and I think that they realized that they really it didnt make a difference either way.. so they just went back to normal...
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5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:
Wish I had your optimism but I think the odds have actually increased if anything. If we were talking in past times when the spread was limited to the speed of foot or horse (barring animal transmission such as birds, bats, etc...) then I would definitely agree given our current technology and resources and the amount of time we would have because of the slow spread. But I fear we are now looking at globalization where travel between countries is very prevalent. Where many travel from one side of the globe to the other in mere hours. So we could have a contagion in it's infancy just breaking out being spread world wide before we are even aware of it. In fact that is what we are pretty much seeing now.
We were very lucky with the Corona virus, if you want to call it lucky. We had almost the perfect storm as far as world wide spread of this disease as the Chinese sat on the outbreak for a month plus before they were forced to acknowledge that there was a problem. Then they waited a month plus to quarantine and shut down all travel in and out of Wuhan. Through this window of opportunity we were seeing millions in the way of international travelers moving from in and out of China to all parts of the world. In fact I think the saving grace for our country was the limited ban put in place to restrict travel from China Jan 1'st. Didn't go far enough as far as I am concerned as it did still allow a small flow of of travelers into the States through various loop holes but it did mitigate a great deal the influx of the virus being carried in. If it were me I probably would have also instituted a limited ban on all international travel in particularly from Europe at the same time. Without that initial ban that bought us much needed time to start preparing I feel quite strongly that we would be looking at a scenario in the States more closely matching that of Italy at this time instead of what we are now seeing.
Now I mentioned that we were lucky as far as this pandemic. Let me explain why. Now this is a nasty bug, no denying that. But it could have been so much worse. The mortality rate is very low compared to some bugs we have seen recently. Though it does spread fairly easily it is looking as if it isn't a true airborne which is the last thing we want to see. Also it is a form of virus (corona) we are familiar with so we don't have to start totally from scratch into deciphering it as we already have a foundation to build off of. Think that is one reason why we have seen the move to try the various malaria drugs to mitigate the impacts of the virus as they are working off of previous experiences/knowledge. Time will tell if this is a fruitful endeavor on their part but right now it does look somewhat promising in my eyes.
Now back to your bolded statement above. Now picture the rapid world wide spread of a virus that we are now seeing as mentioned above. A virus that shares many of the characteristics now displayed by the corona virus. But lets add the mortality rate of Ebola (90+%). Now with Ebola we had factors in play that very much limited its scope. Both its somewhat remote location limiting spread and the rapid onset of symptoms and death (a matter of days) which basically kills off the victims before they are able to widely spread the disease. But take those two factors out as we see with the Corona virus. Where travel in and out of the region is extensive and world wide. Where victims don't become symptomatic until roughly day 5 on average and then take many days if not a week+ to pass away after initial onset. Where the symptoms start off slowly where most are not even aware they are sick and slowly worsen over days. Where there are some indications that people are infectious even before the onset of symptoms. To add a further twist make this virus a true airborne. Throw in a virus that isn't of a seasonal variety where it waxes and wanes. And also add in that it is of an unknown pathogen where we had no foundation to work off of as seen with Ebola in the early days. Essentially we are talking a perfect storm in the way of viruses. Throw all this together and we are probably looking at 50+ % of the population gone within a couple of months even before herd immunity can start playing a part. Hell, even taking out some of the ingredients above still probably results in 25+% gone in a short period of time. And hoping for a rescue from mass immunizations is a fantasy as we are not afforded near enough time.
I like this write up. What you said above really brings things in to perspective.. China didnt do anything at all when (probably) millions of people were passing it around. And the net result was a several thousand deaths.. I think if this was the "perfect storm" scenario.. we would have been completely blind sided by it and there would have been a massive death toll before anyone really new exactly what was going on..
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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:
My bad. Thinking stupid on my part. I still question a 15% mortality rate as I think it will be much lower but we probably will never know the true number as more then likely many cases of infection will go undetected. Best way of getting a read on that is probably to try to figure out the total infection rate for the country through modeling and base it off that.
We should stop speculating about the death rate and leave it to post analysis:
https://www.livescience.com/death-rate-lower-than-estimates.html
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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:
For those that continue to use the information from China in the discussion or even the studies that incorporate this data I probably wouldn't. To put it bluntly they are basically worthless IMO. Keep in mind that everything is filtered through the CPC (Communist Party of China) with the sole intent of looking good in the world's eyes. Any and all detractors from the CPC script within the communities and professional services were stomped on and hard. Despite the CPC's efforts much has leaked out that paints a very bleak picture of what actually occurred. We are also seeing much in the way of peripheral sources (raw data on services within the communities, source allocations, containment strategies, etc...) that collaborates the witness accounts. That said it isn't a stretch whatsoever to piece together a somewhat more accurate idea of what the ground truth was. And that is one that if you increase the numbers by a multitude of 8-10 times you are probably going to get a much more accurate read of the ground truth.
Now keep in mind, the above is mostly in reference to Wuhan the epicenter of the original outbreak where the international communities focus was keyed on. But what I question is what we actually saw in other portions of China. Where the information has been sparse and filtered through the CPC filter and there has been very little questioning in that regards from the rest of the world. So what did we actually see? Now I suppose that it is possible that China was able to pretty much contain the virus within the Wuhan region. But I think there are things arguing against this. First and foremost, Wuhan is the hub of industry and commerce within central China. Many in China travel through the city on their way to other portions of China as it is also a focal point of travel from north to south China as well as East to west. Now consider, cases of the virus in Wuhan started popping up in early December (there are now reports coming out of China of possible cases even earlier, as early as mid-November but let's wait to see what comes of that). But we in fact didn't see Wuhan shut down until Jan 23. So we are pretty much talking a time frame of a month to a month and a half that this virus was able to spread to other portions of China (this doesn't even consider international travel out of Wuhan but that is another story). Now if that wasn't bad enough, what we saw just prior to the shutdown was that upwards of 5 million people left to beat the quarantine. Need I mention how many vectors of this virus this implies that were spread throughout China? The above facts alone argue strongly that China was hit even harder in other regions then they are letting on to especially considering what we are seeing in regards to it's spread in other countries. Now was it a factor of 8 to 10 times what I feel we possibly saw in Wuhan? That I have no idea. All I am pretty certain of is it was worse, possibly much worse then what China is letting on to.
Now I am sort of scratching the surface on the above. There is much more out there that implies that China was hit much harder then they care to admit. Unfortunately I don't believe we will ever truly know how badly considering these facts will never be released by the CPC and that doesn't even consider that China may never know themselves as some of the practices they were employing were purposely done to down play the extent of the virus' impacts. For all we know we just saw a very significant humanity crisis in China and yet China will neither admit nor seek help, for fear of looking bad in the eye's of the world.
Mass death is a very hard thing to cover up.. my guess is that when all is said and done.. most major metropolitan areas in China (and elsewhere) will have Wuhan like numbers.. even in Italy where they did postmortems and attributed deaths to Corona where there were clearly other causes for death.. or people were gonna die anyway.. they could only find like 15,000 deaths.. which really isnt a lot.
Again.. if this was the big one... it would have been more apparent from the onset.
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49 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:
There are a couple of wandering prophets that I see from time to time around Bmore when I’m running errands, and generally, when I see them, the best thing for me to do is to simply ignore them and don’t get engaged.
Time to put that to practice here.
This is an eye opening news story:
Lets take this excerpt for instance:
"Outside, drones hovered above streets, yelling at people to get inside and scolding them for not wearing face masks, while elsewhere in China facial-recognition software, linked to a mandatory phone app that color-coded people based on their contagion risk, decided who could enter shopping malls, subways, cafes and other public spaces. "
Does that mean that Subways and Malls were open?
Seems to me that china didnt even close their malls...
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I feel like Bill Gates is just toying with people now...
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1 minute ago, H2O said:
the yellowstone freakout over the quake was lol
I wonder if Lori Vallow and Chad Daybell were right all along...
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5 hours ago, yoda said:
Oh wow thats a big one!
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Just now, supernovasky said:
You keep getting hung up on this. No other cause of death in this country causes such chaos in our hospital systems. This disease doesn’t just kill but results in extremely long hospitalizations and infects medical staff like nothing else. It all compounds.
As has been said, reality in the ground right now is our hospital systems are strained and heading to break.
Did you look at the video from the reporter in New York?
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Actually I just had an epiphany!!! Now I know why the hospitals are empty.. it is because the Corona Virus is moving the death process along in a much more efficient manner for the people that are in there was out to begin with. Maybe all the people doing that were in perpetual ICU/ Rehab/ Hospice rotation are one and done and it is actually freeing up beds.
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Just now, supernovasky said:
It's a good article, but its applicability is limited. Basically, in a perfectly functioning health care system with adequate medical treatment and no shortages, the CFR is 1.38 and IFR is 0.66.
But as we've learned all over the world, the only places to have kept a perfectly functioning health care system is China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore. Because they did not let their health care systems become overwhelmed.
even at a couple 100,000 death.. it is still just a blip on the radar... a couple of million might have raised the eyebrows of the WHO (if the flu season was particularly severe this year).. otherwise.. I really do not think that people would have notice this was happening if nothing ever came of it.. I don't believe that china had any effective lockdown... the vast majority of that country lives in what we could consider ultra poverty.. people need to leave every day for food and water.. what we see as people driving to the grocery stores here in america.. is overcrowded markets in china.. Just like the US lets people go to the grocery store.. people in china were allowed to crowd markets even during the quarenteen..
I am sure there is propoganda out there that would show otherwise.. but people need to eat....
Do you know which countries are doing nothing? Isnt Sweden and half of the third world basically ignoring this? I would be curious to see what happens with them...
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so its like reporting record highs on the day the thermometer was invented...
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This is probably the most interesting paragraph:
"Second, surveillance of a newly emerged pathogen is typically biased towards detecting clinically severe cases, especially at the start of an epidemic when diagnostic capacity is low (figure 1). Estimates of the case fatality ratio can thus be biased upwards until the extent of clinically milder disease is determined. Data from the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan have primarily been obtained through hospital surveillance and, thus, are likely to represent patients with moderate or severe illness, with atypical pneumonia or acute respiratory distress being used to define suspected cases eligible for testing.In these individuals, clinical outcomes are likely to be more severe, so any estimates of the case fatality ratio will be higher. Elsewhere in mainland China and the rest of the world, countries and administrative regions alert to the risk of infection being imported via travel initially instituted surveillance for COVID-19 with a broader set of clinical criteria for defining a suspected case. These criteria typically included a combination of symptoms (eg, cough and fever) combined with recent travel history to the affected region (Wuhan, or Hubei province). Such surveillance is likely to detect clinically mild cases but, by initially restricting testing to those with a travel history or link, might have missed other symptomatic cases."
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1 hour ago, Mersky said:
The one post I made this am that was deleted by our wonderful moderator was this virus should not be made political. It attacks conservatives and liberals. But in her need to protect Mr Hoffman she deleted it.
This post is very unpolitical.. science based.. and interesting...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
COVID-19 Talk
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
@mappy he is mad at me.. please do something..