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SBUWX23

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Everything posted by SBUWX23

  1. SBUWX23
    the hrrr has basically stopped trending south and maybe even inched the north edge up a bit.
  2. SBUWX23
    this is still a model analysis to a level using RAP fields. so dont panic off this.
  3. SBUWX23
    soon itll be a 1000 mb low. those strength changes are noise. its the precip shield that we have to watch
  4. SBUWX23
    its over. the 6-8 on a mean wont accumulate.
  5. SBUWX23
    all of a sudden the ukmet is a god? Its been trashed on here for months.
  6. SBUWX23
    snow likely wont be anything more than a talking point with this sounding in the city. this is 10z by the way.
  7. SBUWX23
    So .5 to 1 inch hour will just melt everywhere?
  8. SBUWX23
    its out that far already?
  9. SBUWX23
    Holy GEFS mean
  10. SBUWX23
    There will be deformation banding, the challenge now is how large, is it multiple bands, and where do they set up and move across. The fast movement argue that many will at least see it for a time even east of higher qpf predictions
  11. SBUWX23
    the Euro likely nudges back north a bit.
  12. SBUWX23
    See March storms, early April storms, and Nov 2018.
  13. SBUWX23
    Mid LI sounding is a beaut clark at 15z on new GFS
  14. SBUWX23
    Im pretty sure nws forecast accumulation that is not on road surfaces
  15. SBUWX23
    Usually northern parts do better but in this case it may be west vs east.
  16. SBUWX23
    Especially for us on LI. It's such a fickle situation for us but we are due.
  17. SBUWX23
    There is actually good agreement now on that evolution
  18. SBUWX23
    NWS doesn't make wholesale changes this far out with things like this. They have brief updates for the very near term but not for something over 24 hours out. It's not smart to flip around so much with every cycle.Big updates will follow in a few hours. Adjustments are made in quicker times as the event is happening
  19. SBUWX23
    I was even skeptical earlier today but seeing these trends and where the mid level low ends up Tuesday morning I'm more optimistic now. Models help guide us and now things look more reasonable to expect snow down to NYC and LI Tuesday.
  20. SBUWX23
    I think people are gonna like the 00z euro.
  21. SBUWX23
    Okx briefing highlights the areas of concern. Check slide 2. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/02112024pm_winterstorm.pdf
  22. SBUWX23
    Here we have some criticizing when forecasters flip flop and now NWS is remaining more consistent right now and some are upset and wondering why they didn't adjust. Surely if this trend continues amounts will be adjusted.
  23. SBUWX23
    High res RDPS
  24. SBUWX23
    Is that MJO?
  25. SBUWX23
    Hes sticking to his guns here and not relenting, but he needs to look lower down. there is a clear shift at 700 mb.
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