turtlehurricane

Definitely the wrong time of the year to shave your head, if there is ever a right time! Front is starting to show its power. Temps have crashed into the upper 40s in the middle of the day in the Western Panhandle, including the Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, and Crestview areas.

Hard Freeze Watch in effect from Jacksonville down to Ocala, I believe these are the first hard freeze advisories in Florida this year. NWS forecasting freezing temperatures for Orlando and Tampa, and basically down the entire interior of the peninsula all the way to Lake Okeechobee. Really excited that the day is here. Front just starting to move into far western Panhandle now, will move through the whole state today. There's some fairly vigorous precip and thunderstorms along the front, at least so far. We will see how it holds up as it plunges south.

Frontal zone becoming better defined over the middle of the country. Should become quite vigorous over the next day. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-southconus-01-24-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined I still think there's room for the forecast to trend colder depending on what exactly happens with the dual cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes and East Coast.

Looks like a very hard freeze for basically all of northern Florida. If temps trend a little colder then a light freeze we easily go down the entire interior of the peninsula.

NWS Miami starting to hint at wind chill advisories even on the Southeast FL coast Behind the front, a much colder air mass advects into the area. Lows on Friday are currently showing to be in the 40s in the Lake region and low 50s elsewhere. But, by Saturday morning, low are forecast to be in the mid 30s in the western Lake region to mid 40s in the east coast metro areas. Wind chills are dropping the apparent temperature into the 30s across almost the entire area. This will be the coldest night behind the front, as a warming trend Begins after a chilly start Saturday. If it trends a bit colder, which is easily possible, could end up with frost or even freeze advisories.

Appropriate weather for the winter solstice today, it's overcast, cool, and breezy as a cold front pushes through. In-fact, I'm within the actual frontal boundary right now. Currently in the low 70s and heading towards the 50s tonight. NWS Miami getting more aggressive with the late-week front as it gets closer. Now forecasting highs in low 60s and lows in mid 40s, which is extremely cold for South Florida. Forecast could trend even further downward, I think highs in 50s and lows in the 30s are possible based on how strong the front is and how it's happening right on the Winter Solstice.

Winter Solstice is happening at 5 a.m. Eastern Time, so the shortest day of the year and the lowest sun angle of the year has arrived! From south to north, here are Winter Solstice stats for Florida Key West: Day Length 10 hours 37 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 42 degrees Homestead: Day Length 10 hours 33 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 41.1 degrees Miami: Day Length 10 hours 32 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 40.8 degrees Fort Lauderdale: Day Length 10 hours 30 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 40.5 degrees West Palm Beach & Fort Myers: Day Length 10 hours 28 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 39.9 degrees Palmdale (northernmost and coldest place in South Florida): Day Length 10 hours 27 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 39.6 degrees Tampa: Day Length 10 hours 22 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 38.6 degrees Melbourne: Day Length 10 hours 22 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 38.5 degrees Orlando: Day Length 10 hours 20 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 38 degrees Ocala: Day Length 10 hours 17 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 37.4 degrees Gainesville: Day Length 10 hours 15 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 36.9 degrees Jacksonville: Day Length 10 hours 11 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 36.3 degrees Pensacola: Day Length 10 hours 11 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 36.2 degrees Tallahassee: Day Length 10 hours 11 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 36.1 degrees Paxton (Along northernmost border of Florida): Day Length 10 hours 8 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 35.6 degrees Overall, between the southernmost point in Florida at Key West, and the northernmost point along the northern border of the Panhandle, there is a day length difference of 29 minutes and a noon sun angle difference of 6.4 degrees. And that apparently makes all the difference between a tropical climate in Key West and a cold continental climate in the Panhandle.

The cold front near the end of this week looks super impressive. NWS not really biting yet, just forecasting highs in 60s and lows in the 50s, but if the models keep showing it this strong a few days from now I'm sure they will drop the forecasted lows deep into the 40s or even the 30s, especially since this is happening right at the Winter Solstice. In the meantime a weaker cold front coming tomorrow night, and it will drop lows into the 50s on Monday night. Lows were in the 50s this morning too, so basically we're in peak winter and getting cold front after cold front.

The cold front is finally making its presence felt here, rain just began hitting the windows. We won't get much rain, just some light showers, but this is indeed the front. It's in the low 80s now, forecast to be mid 50s tomorrow morning. That's a drastic temperature change. P.S. Long range GFS shows an extremely powerful front in just over a week. If it happens, would bring freeze potential state-wide.

Yeah, we can see the rocket launches even from here! At least at night time, not sure about day time cause I haven't tried yet. Back in the Space Shuttle days we could see that in the daytime tho, but the Falcon 9 is obviously much weaker than the Space Shuttle based on my memory. There's a nice looking frontal system moving through Florida today https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Florida-01-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined It's been in the mid 80s every day here, back to summery weather. Looks like one cold day coming though, 50s tomorrow night and high of only 70 on Friday. Nothing like the previous could shot where we had multiple mornings in the 40s and multiple days struggling to hit the mid 60s, but I'm still excited about it. Still looking forward to the first frost/freeze threat here in Southeast Florida, if that ever happens. Entering winter prime time tho so it's possible in the coming months.

Frost advisory now extends into South Florida, as far south as Glades and Hendry counties. Dropped into the 50s as soon as the sun set here, and now into the low 50s. I walked outside and it feels so nice, very cold but also dry. It's cold enough that it reminds me of Wisconsin. Also classic smell of smoke in the air from fireplaces.

Dewpoints have crashed into the 30s, as low as 33 F, by far the lowest of the year. High looks to be 64, which is the current temp. Absolutely ideal radiational cooling setup for tonight, with very low dewpoints, clear skies, relatively light winds, and the longest nights of the year since we're near the solstice. Low temps have been trending downward, forecast low of 46 F even here on the coast directly next to the Gulf Stream. Widespread 30s look possible across the Everglades, and maybe even in the western parts of the metro areas. In-fact, frost is in the forecast for the everglades, all the way down into western Broward. No frost advisories yet, may be some short-fused frost advisories tonight though. That being said, no one lives out there. Will be exciting to track the temp drop tonight. EDIT, NWS Miami disco talks all about it With lightening winds, frost is a concern with most of the inland areas around the Lake seeing the potential of some patchy frost, especially in sheltered areas, though the colder temperatures filtering down the ridge from Central Florida towards Glades and Hendry could create more areas of frost there. A Frost Advisory will likely be necessary for Glades and Hendry for tonight. There is some forecast uncertainty, particularly for inland portions of South Florida. The Lake Okeechobee region looks to be the coldest part of South Florida tonight but the wind may not diminish enough to preclude concerns about wind chill, particularly for inland portions of Southwest Florida and Palm Beach County. Will allow the evening shift to monitor for this as well. The model trend has been chillier with each run and favored a blend of the 12z GFS MOS guidance and the National Blend of Models, which straddled around the middle-of- the-road in the guidance spread. The threat of a freeze is not zero over inland Southwest Florida, but the wind should be enough to keep temperatures from nose-diving below 32 and the airmass may have enough moisture near the surface (with dewpoints around 35) to help provide a buffer against a freeze in most of these areas.

Just did my morning prayers outside, which takes about 15 minutes, and it was so cold. It's awesome though. My skin hasn't felt cold like this in a long time. Hovering in the low 50s here as the day starts, 40s in the northwestern reaches of South Florida, and 30s in the north-central peninsula. I see a short fused frost advisory was issued up there this morning. Today looks to be remarkable for Southeast Florida, since high temps don't look to get beyond the low 60s despite full sunshine. That's about as cold as it ever gets here on a sunny day.

Haha. Well, it would have to get more towards 40 for iguanas to really start dropping. Might be a few iguanas coming off trees tomorrow, although it takes a more prolonged and deeper cold for that to happen on a widespread scale. Down to 55 here. Haven't ventured out yet but I'm sure it's freezing cold. Could make a run towards 50 before the sun rises in 2-3 hours, steady temp drop all night from CAA and clear skies. House is feeling cold even though AC isn't on.

I believe we just got heavy rain. I was up during the worst of it and didn't even hear thunder. SPC shows zero storm reports. CAA underway here too. Was warm and near 80 this afternoon, but by sunset we had a strong breeze and cooling temps. Now already in the upper 60s which is very refreshing. Forecast high of 64 tomorrow, and lows in the 40s tomorrow night! I'm super excited.

The NWS Miami discussion is piquing my interest, they make it seem like this will really be a severe event. I've seen plenty of these severe events, in-fact most of them, end up underwhelming, but once in awhile they meet expectations. Definitely something fun to watch either way. .Mesoscale Discussion... A mid/upper-level low over TX will deamplify into an open wave today, as it phases with an additional mid-level impulse diving southward into the middle Mississippi Valley. This evolution of the mid/upper-level flow pattern will support the development of a long- wave trough over the eastern states, and broad/enhanced mid-level cyclonic flow increasing across the South Florida CWA into the evening/overnight hours. As the large-scale pattern continues to consolidate today, an upper- level jet streak will develop over the SE CONUS -- providing upper- level divergence and weak forcing for ascent across the region. At the surface, a remnant quasi-stationary frontal boundary is evident via the latest RAP mesoscale analysis -- extending from the southern Gulf of Mexico eastward across portions of South Florida. South of this surface boundary, rich boundary layer moisture is evident (characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s). As the above mentioned enhanced mid/upper-level cyclonic flow increases over the area, a weak frontal wave/surface low should develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (along the quasi-stationary surface boundary). As the frontal wave develops, the aforementioned rich boundary layer moisture will gradually spread northward across South Florida, coincident with weak WAA and associated isentropic ascent over the boundary. In addition, the latest high resolution model guidance depicts the development of a southwesterly low-level jet across South Florida, further enhancing mesoscale ascent, moisture advection, and vertical shear profiles across South Florida. All of the above mentioned factors will introduce a risk of excessive rainfall and localized flooding during the overnight hours -- supported by regenerative convection amid rich moisture/weak persistent ascent. Thermodynamic profiles will be supportive of locally heavy rainfall, though training/backbuilding of convective cells will exacerbate the flooding risk. There will also be a conditional risk of brief tornadic activity, as enhanced deep-layer shear (near 45 knots) overspreads the CWA amid rich surface moisture and elongating/veering hodographs. The primary factor regarding tornadic potential will be the ability for convection to become rooted at/near the surface -- where the rich moisture will be located. We will be closely monitoring the evolution of the aforementioned surface boundary and rich boundary layer moisture. There is currently plenty of uncertainty regarding storm mode/evolution/intensity -- owing to the weak large-scale forcing regime in place and anticipated marginal buoyancy over land areas. A reasonable-worst case scenario involves the development of a few rotating discrete cells amongst a larger area of rain, in addition to locally heavy rain and flooding. Present indications are that the greatest risk will be focused across the southern and eastern portions of South Florida, including the Gulf Coast metro areas. Keep up with the latest information from NWS Miami.

Yeah, NWS Miami makes it sound like this will be a real heavy rain event in South Florida. We will see. Interesting looking formations over the Gulf already though https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-01-24-0-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Really looking forward to the frontal passage on Monday. It's gotten warm here again with highs in the 80s everyday. Looks like highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s/40s after the front, which will feel amazing.

I went out there this morning and it was freezing cold, and I quickly went inside. I apparently can't handle temperatures this low. We got down to roughly 50. Impressively cold temperatures recorded across northern Florida. Cross City, which is actually on the peninsula, went down to 24. Ocala hit 26, and 20s as far south as Inverness, where it hit 28. Even a site in the northwestern most part of South Florida, Venus in Glades County, hit 33. Another site just east of Naples actually hit 33 too. This cold event definitely over-performed in some areas.

The sun has set, and now the coldest night so far this year in Florida begins. NWS has raised wind chill advisories for a large swath of Southwest Florida, including Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier county. Wind chills expected to be upper 20s to mid 30s there. Here in the Southeast Florida metro area it will be low 50s according to the forecast, already upper 50s now. Maybe it could creep into the upper 40s though considering how clear the sky is, and how the winds are almost calm, and dew points are in the lower to middle 40s. Zooming out, freeze likely as far south as Ocala and Brooksville.

Opened a window for the first time this year and the cold air coming through feels so incredible. Lit a vanilla/cinnamon incense and it's blowing in the breeze and filling the house with relaxing vibes. I missed this so much, and had practically forgotten what cool air felt like! Hovering in the mid 60s. Already past solar noon so sun is getting lower, and that combined with strong cold air advection probably means that temps won't get any warmer today. I'm seeing northern Florida and even parts of Central Florida aren't even getting out of the 40s! This is really unique, since our first cold front usually isn't so powerful.

The long hot summer is over!!! Just walked outside and it's ice cold! The air is so refreshing, and the sky is the clearest blue that I've seen in a very long time. Currently in the upper 50s here. I thought I missed the lows of the night since it's 9 am and I just woke up, but checking the data, the cold air advection is so powerful that the current temperatures are the lows of the past 24 hours, temp has been dropping since sunrise! Expected highs in the mid 60s, I'm definitely gonna walk with my wife as much as possible today. Looks like a freeze across the entire Panhandle, with freezing temps as far south as Cross City and as far east as Gainesville. Looks like the freeze tonight will be even more expansive, with frost potential extending all the way down into the Lake Okeechobee region.

Still waiting on the drier and cooler air to filter in here. Winds have shifted to out of the west, but still in low 70s with dew points around 70. The real cooler air is crossing the Everglades, dew points in the 50s with northwest winds in Ft. Myers and Lake Okeechobee. Should start to get cooler here before midnight tho. Just saw that freeze watches have been extended down into the peninsula, including Gainesville and as far south as Brooksville, which is actually south of Orlando. Could see a solid frost in the orange growing regions tomorrow night. Extremely dramatic change! So happy winter is happening.

We have entered the frontal zone here in the Southeast Florida metro area. Very ominous looking clouds and a stiff southwest wind. You can really tell the weather is about to change the way it is out there. Radar shows the main activity, which is a broken line of heavy downpours, is quickly pushing east across the Everglades. Surface obs indicate that temperature is crashing into the low 70s behind the front, as opposed to mid 80s on the southeast coast. Just noticed that freeze watches/warnings now extend across the entire panhandle, extending as far south as Cross City.

Front looking juicier with the heating of the day, and as it collides into the more tropical air further south. Some intense cells over Fort Myers https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=tbw&product=N0R&loop=yes The stratocumulus over the Gulf shows that the cold air advection is very impressive https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-01-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined So excited, first real frontal passage for South Florida just hours from now. Forecasted lows in the 50s tonight and upper 40s tomorrow night. It's gonna feel like zero degrees lol

Freeze watch in the westernmost part of the Panhandle... first freeze advisories of the year in Florida? I'm not 100% sure, but I think so. ...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.