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Posts posted by 1234snow
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The end of the 18z GFS is quite cold.
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Got some pretty flakes flying now!!!
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Received a nice dusting around 30 minutes ago.
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According to the warning a large and dangerous tornado was in Sharon, TN moving northeast toward Dresden, TN
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Few flakes this morning!
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Southwest Virginia is dealing with this tonight. Again, I hate to say much else. Scannerfood on FB is a good follow for local coverage.
Last night as well.- 2
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There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way?
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Is that the LLC going over the western tip of Cuba or the MLC?
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WJHL was showing a CC drop but very hard to tell if I was an accurate reading. Please be safe in the Kingsport area especially on south side of town.
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There it is: Tornado warning for Hawkins, Sullivan, Washington and Greene. Rotation just north of Fall Branch currently.
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Very heavy rain here but not even close to as much thunder as this morning.
It is pouring down hard here. The storm just east of the tornado warning looks like it is developing a little hook to me. Heading close to Colonial Heights.- 1
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Tornado warning now for Hawkins County. Radar indicated.
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7 severe thunderstorm warnings across East Tennessee at the moment.
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I did not know that was possible!
You can click on the timestamp on the bottom right and it brings up a calendar where you go chose the date and time. Pretty cool.- 2
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Some #’s from the SPC meso page for East TN
Super cell composite up to 16
Bulk wind shear effective up to 50kts
CAPE - 2500 to 3500
Helocity 100-200 depending on which layer you look at
Sig Tor is up to 3- 4
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That storm over John will have to be watched closely as it moves eastward. Already pretty meaty.
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Looks like a few dry days because the northwest flow kicks back in at the end of the week.
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Drenching down here, working on 3 inches of rain since this afternoon. Flash Flood and Areal flood products in effect for here and Whitley County Kentucky.
That pocket of storms popped up right over you and would not move east at all.- 1
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467
ACUS11 KWNS 251531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251530
TNZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-251730-
Mesoscale Discussion 1251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023
Areas affected...Portions of far southern KY...middle/eastern
TN...western NC...and extreme southwestern VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251530Z - 251730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging winds may gradually
increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of convection is ongoing late this
morning across parts of south-central KY into middle TN. This
activity is loosely tied to thunderstorms that occurred overnight
and early this morning across the Upper Midwest. Well-below-severe
wind gusts have been observed at various ASOS and KY Mesonet sites
over the past hour or so, suggesting that the stronger velocities
noted on area radars are not yet reaching the surface. The 12Z
observed sounding from BNA shows a rich low-level airmass already in
place across middle TN, with mid 60s surface dewpoints and 14 g/kg
mean mixing ratio. A similar boundary-layer moisture profile will
also exist across eastern TN and vicinity, downstream of the ongoing
thunderstorms.
As daytime heating warms surface temperatures into the 80s across
this area over the next couple of hours, destabilization and erosion
of lingering MLCIN should quickly occur. MLCAPE exceeding 1000-1500
J/kg seems increasingly likely by 17Z, and convection may become
surface based by early afternoon. Although details regarding
convective evolution remain uncertain, there appears to be some
potential for ongoing thunderstorms to consolidate into a loosely
organized cluster while spreading east-southeastward across eastern
TN and vicinity this afternoon. A veering boundary-layer wind
profile observed on recent KOHX VWPs, and westerly winds
strengthening with height through mid levels, will foster around
25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, aiding in some convective
organization. Steepening low-level lapse rates ahead of the possible
cluster should allow for a more efficient transfer of strong/gusty
winds with downdrafts to the surface with time. Scattered damaging
winds may become an increasing concern through the early afternoon,
and isolated severe hail may occur with any supercell that can
form/persist on the southwest flank of the cluster. While not
immediately likely, observational trends will be monitored for
possible watch issuance by early afternoon.
..Gleason/Grams.. 06/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 35038500 35188572 35738629 36348604 36858546 36968483
36888375 36718292 36468239 36178215 35778226 35458252
35168292 34998370 35038500 -
The current line in Kentucky may make it to the Valley/Knoxville area after lunch if it holds together.
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TRI is -3.8F BN for June. Honestly, it feels like late spring and not summer - dare I even say that. We are now running 13 straight days of BN temps. It has been cloudy all day today w/ periods of light rain. A great run of weather for June. Last June was a sauna. This is nearly the exact opposite. We will most assuredly have summer, but for every week we steal....just one less week of heat.
Alot of days this month we have struggled to make it to 80. May not make it to 80 in many places this week. Hopefully much needed rains this week and not flooding for some spots. Knoxville area has had 3-5” of rain today estimated .- 2
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Tornado warning for Lee, Wise and Scott with some rotation over Pennington Gap.
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Tornado warning now for Bland and Tazewell counties in Virginia.
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
in Tennessee Valley
Posted
It was a major shift from the 0z CMC where on that run it dumped the trough out west at the end of the run.