ErinInTheSky

39.192193,-77.233446

52 degree high today, 57 degree high tomorrow... spring watch is on!

Hearing pingers in Germantown.

Honest to god heavy snow in Germantown. Wow this event is going to overperform.

Well this is a pleasant surprise. Snowing pretty good in Germantown and the roads are caved.

Despite the frustrations of this winter, I will hand it one thing. I have had snow cover since Jan 30 and this is by far the longest time I’ve experienced with some white on the ground.

My parking lot is an absolute glacier right now and it's just been hilarious all day today. I love these kinds of events where the ice just sticks around forever and creates all kinds of a mess.

2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

LOL. People are mutinying against the snow plow in my parking lot right now hahahaba

There are dozens of people pickaxing through the glacier he created last night blocking cars in. 

LOL. People are mutinying against the snow plow in my parking lot right now hahahaba

I'm getting some light freezing drizzle in Germantown. Not much on radar though. I hope all of you have shoveled already - this stuff has settled and is now basically packed ice that cannot be shoveled. The plows created these ice mountains in front of cars - I feel so bad for them tomorrow lol...

also, something really neat, I've had snow on the ground since Jan 30... That's really cool.

This sleet bomb is going to last forever here... Like there was 0 lost to melting or sun burning it off today. It's kind of awesome.

Covid cases will go down, vaccines will be up, and sundresses will be back in style.

AH I can't wait. 

Cherry blossoms!!!!

LOL YES! They plowed! Oh my god I feel bad for these folks but when this sleet bomb hardens tonight, it's going to be impossible to get through it.

I quickly shoveled the sleet bank away from my car's path.

For those of us with straight sleet it’s weird too. It’s like shoveling millions of extremely tiny glass beads.

Just now, chris21 said:

They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse.

Yup hahahaha I was actually hoping they would to see the hilarity that ensues. The sleet banks they make end up crusting into straight ice and trapping all the cars. Looks like they learned their lesson.

They haven't even bothered to plow my parking lot. It's gonna be nasty when this all turns to concrete.

Just now, haudidoody said:

Honestly I don't personally consider this a bust at all. Just because some group predicts significant snowfall doesn't mean it is a likely outcome. Organizations that forecast weather do what they do for whatever reason, but there was never going back a week a high likelihood of significant snow around DC. Never.

Same, I'm having a blast with this storm either way. I have mountains of frozen ball bearings that still having been cleared from the parking lot and have not melted a single bit.

A couple years ago, someone asked "If you know you're going to meet climo snow totals, would you rather it come in one or two big storms, or 6-8 small ones?"

I think I firmly know where I stand on this now.

1 minute ago, NattyBo said:

Same in Rockville

Same in germantown.

Nothing on the radar though.

Just now, jayyy said:

They definitely did better than those dreadful 10:1’s or snow depth maps for sure. 

Seeing people who usually post Kuchera start posting 10:1s was enlightening

Just remeasured, and I got 2.5" of sleet in the parking lot. It collected there a bit easier.

Brush your cars off and shovel around them now. This stuff gets ridiculous to maneuver around and will cake onto everything for days. 

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That’s Harlem for ya. Didn’t need the NAM to tell you that was going to happen. I grew up in NW Rockland county where it was typically 5-8-10 degrees colder during storms and snowed twice as much annually despite being only 25-30 miles away from downtown (as the crow flies) That’s just the climo of that area. 287/87 has always been the fall line in the NYC metro. It’s a different world N and NW of the NYS thruway. I can recall at least 7-8 storms where nyc rained and my area saw over a foot. The Bronx always did better than Manhattan which did better than Brooklyn, queens, and the island, etc. 24-36” of pure snow in downtown NYC is extremely rare for a reason. 

Your point about the NAM’s performance is spot on. Inside of 24-36, the hi res has been cash money. I’m not sure how many storms people need to live through until they grasp the NAMs dominance in the short range and that it is literal garbage outside of 60. I said it to @WinterWxLuvr last night…. If the 3k NAM shows a near identical low track and high positioning to Globals within 24 hours but shows the warm Nose 50 miles further north, you best be paying attention - its probably right.  IMO, the NAM shouldn’t even be looked at until within 48. It will save people a ton of confusion about the NAM showing a snowstorm in Ohio / Buffalo 5 days out and the whiplash it does to reality within 48. 

I understand many are disappointed and rightfully so, but Models overall did quite well with this. Euro, GFS, PARA, EPS, UKMET, etc all pretty did pretty well in regards to the overall pattern evolution and track a few days out, which is what globals are used for - and in the short term, the mesos (RAP,  NAM twins, HRW) took it home on the nitty gritty details. That’s why using a mixture of model consensus and local climo is so important when making a forecast and why Mets don’t just choose a “reliable model” and make a forecast off of it verbatim.  I know it’s tempting for folks to compare ground truth to kuchera snow maps and see a bust during what’s been a very tough winter for many, but if you analyze models based on their strong suits, they actually did pretty well here once we got within 3-4 days. In a general sense, it is a shame that in the year 2021, models are still so far apart on the details but what can we do. 

All correct, except one thing: Kuchera maps in THIS storm were actually more reasonable, including on NAM. 

I don't know about QPF, but I know had I listened to the NAM for my backyard in every other event this year, I never would have been disappointed. For this one, I followed it closely the entire time and love that I did because it seems I'm the only one happy today and not upset lol.

This stuff is a pain in the butt to shovel. Like shoveling millions of tiny slippery ball bearings.