ErinInTheSky

How about that NAM though? 4ths torm this season it's sussed out that sleet line even while the globals were insisting otherwise.

Just now, Ka60 said:

It is mostly rain further up!!!!  Crazy stuff!!

I'm going to hope to stay under precip for as long as possible now. If this just goes dry fast, then the sleet bomb ice storm will have been for naught. 3+" of sleet will be really fun. Roads are already caved here. It'll look like snow but it'll stay around forever, esp after the freezing rain gets to it.

Just got woken up from the sleet. The sleet bomb is on. Y'all ready for a 3+" sleet bomb ice storm? 

24/15 in Germantown.

Whew GFS would be nasty with the freezing rain. This is on top of region wide 4" of snow and almost 1" of sleet.

This could be a really fun event tomorrow. Significant amounts of all ptypes, on multiple models.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

My first and only call for my area is 3-4" of snow and a bunch of sleet. Once it shuts off I'm thinking 5" total of frozen stuff. Sleet will pummel and compact for sure. My plan is to measure snow at the beginning of the flip, clear the table, then measure sleet. Roads will be the worst they've been since Jan 16. Jan 19 was 11" in my yard but iirc the roads were fine. Not to mention snow distribution was all over the place so road impacts varied by the mile. Tomorrow will be a different story. 

That's my plan as well. As soon as the changeover happens, clear it off.

1 minute ago, chris21 said:

NAM was terrible with the ice storm. Let’s see what the models have to say today... still over 18 hours from the event with plenty of divergence from models. Not sure we can make definitive statements about how this storm will turn out yet. 

This thread is probably not the place to discuss the NAMs performance on the ice storm but I'll just say that I thought it did well there too, it had the right temperature profile for a lot of Maryland.

I think that's where the NAM has been a godsend this season. It's gotten the sleet line correct on the other 2-3 whiffs we've had this year due to the transition to sleet early in the storm.

3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

The NAM has - without question - performed the worst of any model for this entire threat.

If one more person talks about how the NAM has "done it again," I'm gonna lose it - lol

Wait what?

The NAM has been showing, consistently since the first run at range, that the sleet line will be well into Maryland very early.

The Euro, GFS, etc have shown on the other hand have been, even as early as yesterday, putting out sleet lines in Virginia and dropping 8+" of snow region wide. Don't even get me started at what the Euro and GFS were saying when the NAM was "at range".

The NAM has been great IMO, it was great on other storms and in this case, it looks like models are caving towards the NAM here as well.

Oh yuck at the 6z suite.

I even lost my NAM sleet bomb and only get like 1" of sleet from it.

This wasn't just models caving towards the NAM, it was a retreat by the NAM as well.

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

That was the RGEM, had 30 plus inches for baltimore 2 or 3 runs in a row lol.

What's the RGEM giving us this time?

Just now, wxtrix said:

i want heavy sleet. it's rarer than heavy snow. bring it!

I knew I liked you.

Was the RAP the model that gave us 40" of snow 12 hours out from the start of our 3 day bleh event this year?

I'm all in on the 3km NAM. I get my snow AND my sleet. WB posts:

12 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I think we got it after the 20th time

Lol! If I say it enough maybe it will happen. Like let me just preemptively embrace the NAM as my model lord and savior.

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Solid event, I’d sign for the 3 inches that gives me right now if I could.  3 inches + sleet + snow showers + a cold weekend is about as good as it gets most of the time for us.  Gotta just roll with it, can’t be punting events like this as a mid Atlantic weenie. 

Oh I'm not punting.

I'm banking on the NAM, everyone knows I want a 3" sleet bomb capped with .25"+ of freezing rain. Those are fun. Stays for days. Everything caves instantly.

But if I'm not getting the NAM's solution, give me the GFS any day.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro is 6" - 10" for Montgomery County.

???

Just now, Deck Pic said:

It's like 10" for you

Looking at Kuchera in Germantown its 4.5"?

I hate the Euro. It's such a fail for the different scenarios that would give much enjoyment.

At least with the GFS and co, it's a ton of snow.

And with the NAM, it's 3" of sleet and then freezing rain to make the biggest mess we've seen in a while (and this is my personal favorite solution because, again, I LOVE 3"+ sleet bombs)

But the Euro? Non-warning snow, insignificant sleet, and a tenth an inch of Zr

NAM sleet fest is still on. I'm seriously rooting for this, y'all, over snow. 3"+ of sleet is just way too fun.

43 minutes ago, GregD said:

I experienced a storm like that in Oklahoma many, many years ago. Curb deep sleet (4-6") followed by freezing rain. Then the temps crashed. Net result was a chunky 4" thick glacier. 

Its my sneaky favorite kind of winter storm.

I really am cheering for the NAM because of it.

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I was texting her earlier, told her to go low then adjust high as things get closer. A reverse bust is always better than going high and busting way too low 

See though I don't think the bust, should it bust, is going to even bee a "bust"

If you don't get significant snow, you're going to get obscene sleet and thats going to make up for the bust. The ground will be white just like snow and it will stick around longer and it will be the most sleet you've seen in the last at least 5 years (or more? If it beasts the 2017 storm).

I'm hugging the NAM. I want 3-5" of sleet. I love love love those kinds of storms. When I first moved here in 2016, a year later, 2017, was my favorite winter storm. 3" of sleet. People here know how to deal with snow mostly but sleet, no. It was hilarious because I suddenly felt like everyone was in my boat, a newbie.

People treated it like snow, it looked like snow, covered everything, but it was not snow.

The plows came and created these sleet mountains that looked like snow. People tried to back over them with their cars, and it didn't compact down, because it was pure ice. It was chaos in the most hilarious way, car tires sticking up in the air as the cars got stuck on those little snow banks created by the plows.

It stayed for SO long, melted so slowly. I absolutely loved it.

and that was 3". Nam is showing 4-5" of sleet now. That is exciting to me.

You know, I would TOTALLY take the NAM. 

My favorite storm since moving here was actually the 3" sleet bomb we got in, what was it, 2017? 3" of sleet is unreal. That ice pack stayed for DAYS. It was hilarious watching people try to back out over it as if it were snow after the plows moved and cars literally go stuck with tires in the air because it didn't pack down.

32 and absolutely pouring rain in Germantown.

One thing I do like, even though I had virtually no accretion except for on cars (lots on cars),

Is that it is keeping my white snow pack sticking around even longer now.