buckeye

From the glass half full stance, I guess it's possible that the pattern from November could kick back in mid late Jan, so that's on the table. I guess it really is too early to start writing winter's obit, but there has been so much hype about this winter, (east-centered especially). It's not just the level of hype that was striking but the almost unanimous agreement among private forecasters. If this winter turns out to be anything less than 'good'....mediocre ain't gonna cut it.... it will be the biggest widespread winter forecast bust in my many years of being an internet wxweenie, especially for the MA and NE. That being said, there's still a couple of weeks to start turning the ship and saving things.

Winter of yore.... ....worst nightmare. Kidding aside, I'm with you, we are in the midst of my favorite time of year to get hammered with snow and once again....here we are. I did clean up leaves in the yard yesterday though....so there's that.

What amazes me is the lack of 300hr+ fantasy storms and polar vortex visits the gfs almost always spits out this time of year. We can't even score the proverbial weenie on a stick. Not sure if that's good or bad.

Can't even imagine moving to a location based solely on lake effect snow and then seeing that latest gfs run. You're bitterness is both justified and forgiven.

from your keyboard to God's ears....especially the warm March thing

2nd wettest or possibly wettest on record for CMH and yet no flooding or extremes that I can recall.

Agree. I can't recall the last decent December snow event....not to mention one over the holidays. So damn sick and tired of winters that drag on through March and April. Hopefully winter appears in a couple of weeks, let's loose snow and cold for 3 or 4 weeks then gets the hell out.

Euro has a system around 168 that goes from south dakota to n. minn. Then is looks ready to go bonkers with a deepening trough in the central US and a pressing cold high from the north at 240. Verbatim, the euro looks to crush someone beyond 240....but hell, extrapolating the euro beyond 240 is like extrapolating the nam beyond 84. edit: looking at the other maps for 240 euro...looks more like a progressive system that would probably hit well east and south of us. So the quick answer is first one misses all of to the nw and the next one misses all of us to the se. Merry Christmas

Ruh roh....2011-12 winter analog unfolding.

Agree, hell Feb is basically the dead of winter and the way our winters have been going, Feb is like the new December.

You've obviously never been to North Dakota. Ohio is pretty flat and boring from about Central areas north and west. The southeastern half of Ohio isn't too bad. In fact the Hocking Hills area is probably the prettiest. If you were blindfolded and dropped off in some of the natural points of interest in the Hocking Hills, you'd be shocked to know you were in Ohio.

Southern IN, around Bloomington is actually pretty nice. Central and northern IN, ummmm uh well not so much. I do love Michigan and I've been to GR many times. My wife and I discuss getting a cabin somewhere sometime eventually and I often bring up Lake Michigan shoreline in northern MI as a fav place. Of course she is a beach bum and can't understand my insane, illogical love of snow. Quite frankly I don't get it either.

Don won me over during the winter of 2011/12. I remember I was in Hawaii in early January and every mornng I was checking the weather back home to see what it would be like when I got back. I remember most forecasters like DT were touting a pattern change to much colder later in January and into February but Don was adamant that winter was essentially over and there would be no pattern change or any incoming sustained cold. We all know what happened.... huge win for the Don. This year I'm rooting for Roger Smith's forecast to verify. He's calling for a cold snowy period from mid Jan to mid Feb and then winter exiting quickly and early. That would be my perfect winter. Unfortunately he is the only forecasters I've seen calling for an early end to winter. Most want to keep the cold going into April...ugh.

We've never had shortages of bones being thrown at us.....we get boned all the time by the models. Our problem is getting one with some actual meat.

exactly Can you imagine what the ratio of digital bytes spent to inches of snow received is over there by the end of a winter season? My God the paragraphs and paragraphs explaining, disecting, and atmospherically anal-probing a 10 day pattern that ends up yielding nothing. Then the same guy that writes a 4 paragraph post complete with graphs and maps explaining why he's excited about the upcoming 3 week pattern, turns around the next day and writes 4 paragraphs complete with graphs and maps explaining why he's ready to punt the next month.

Very different atmosphere in the MA forum winter thread. Apparently the euro weeklies show a 09/10 snowmaggaedon Jan/Feb pattern, and JB is even calling it Jan/Feb 78esque.... That snowmaggaedon period between late Jan and mid Feb 2010 dumped something like 30" of snow here in cmh...so that wouldn't suck.

Just when I thought the gfs had bottomed out and couldn't get any worse.... The 6z came out.

Soul crushing. We just came off weeks of below normal temps and days of flakes flying around. Now we'll watch a 989 low slowly travel from central WV to 983 over CLE and nothing but rain followed by a few backend flakes. This is why I root on torches in winter.

This is the time of year I really get excited about getting some good snow....I hate green Christmas's. I always look for patterns or trends to set in at the beginning of the season and one of the disturbing ones I've noticed is that storms seem to be warmer as they get closer in time. We've had several decent looking LR snow events for the sub in which the snow sector begins to get smaller and the rain becomes more dominant as the timeframe shortens....(this weekend for instance), and now next weekend as well. Hopefully this won't be a repeating theme. Last couple of years the theme was strong storms in the long range turning into to weak sauce in the short range. On another note I'm dubious about all of this SSWE talk. I keep wondering why, if all the ingredients were already there for the winter forecasts to showcase a cold/snowy JFM, than why is everyone riding the SSWE like it's going to be a winter savior?..... I thought the winter was already saved by enso, indices, and analogs?

from my experience it doesn't matter if it's Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, etc.... ....every state has a 'lil bit of "WV" somewhere in it.

Don't encourage him

it's stuck on torch default mode. I think the govt uses it primarily to garner support for carbon taxes.

that model is a joke

That analog is probably the most touted one out there this season. If we hadn't been on the slop side of that xmas storm, that would probably be a top 3 winter for me....considering we scored huge with the president's day storm that year.

Man...EVERYONE....EVERY forecast....has Xmas thru spring training as Katy-bar-the-door-for-jo-mama's-winter-of-yore and now the glide path to our incoming ice age gets a last minute lube job courtesy of our good ole friend the sswe. What could possibly go wrong?