buckeye

Don't feel bad, at least you're not being teased with feet of digital snow. That damn model has me up to 70"+ for the season so far.

For the Chicago area and western/central lakes that's true, but for the ohio Valley and eastern lower lakes that's not necessarily. The snowapocalypse of late Jan and Feb '10 being a great example. Besides, let's not forget the mentality of the MA poster. Any trough, cold air, or low pressure east of the continental divide is by default an HECS threat.

If you're in a lake effect area, I absolutely get it. But 1-2" of crusty snow cover with weeks of Arctic dry cold.....fck that....ill take a January day like today over that every single time. Maybe I'm just turning into an old fogie

No doubt, today was beautiful. As far as the pattern change....i just hope if it happens we,keep the boobie pattern, (credit angrysummons), and just get things a little colder. That way at least we have trackable storms without the crushing, suppressive brutal cold. I have no desire to see the PV park over the northern lakes....

I'm being a bit of a smartass but the subject of the pattern change suddenly showing on the models is legit.

Seriously dude.... Go to the MA and NE forums, they're popping champaign corks and partying it up!

Clearly you haven't been keeping up with the dramatic model turn around in the last 24 hours. Next week the pattern change begins . We're on the threshold of a '78 Jan/Feb esque pattern realizing. Don't sell that sled!!! Grease it up!

No doubt I'll be in the cleavage with a warm tongue

Perfect description....that is spot on!

One similarity is that we were constantly chasing a unicorn pattern change throughout January that never materialized. Then that insane torch hit in Feb and March. 90s in Michigan...in March! That was crazy, probably will never see anything close to that again in our lifetimes.

Well, at least we still have our dignity by only giving this winter 3 pages of respect so far. Unlike the MA forum that is closing in on 300 pages of winter weather discussion threads since late October, with even less snowfall than we have to show for it.

anyone who has a wxbell subscription needs to watch JB's atmospheric avenger vid from this morning. He's lost his mind, laughing throughout the entire vid while babbling about how every indice is going exactly as he forecasted except the weather isn't cooperating. He even said he's not going to use the delayed not denied excuse. If the pattern hasn't changed by the 20th his forecast will have been garbage and he doens't care what happens after that. Seriously....straight-jacket worthy stuff

That was a great Feb! Plow horse got stuck quite a few times.

I think what makes this winter different is that pretty much every forecaster was in full hype mode.

Im looking forward to going full nuclear troll if this pattern fails. JB, LC, DT, are all in my cross hairs. I can't guarantee Don S will be spared either. Tell me this is going to be an epic winter....winter of yore....better damn well produce. As of now the farmers almanac and the cfsv2 are schooling these dudes.

I'm trying to figure out where all the glass half full posts are suddenly coming from in the MA forum. Gfs op at hr 360 has rain falling in OH and MI. At 384 it's raining in the MA. Only snow on the euro OP is new england and a small amount in the southern states around day 10 from a seemingly temporary deep trough dropping in. Seems to be excitement over cold air building in Canada but who cares if it continually gets cut off by low pressure whipping across the conus. How many times have we seen a brutally cold regime in Canada that never makes it south? The gefs mojo loops into phase 7 and takes it back to 6. The euro takes it through 8 for about a week, (ironically during a relatively benign mild forecast period), then it hightails it across the COD towards phase 4. NAO steadily positive. Only bright spots are a forecasted negative AO and a dropping SOI. We've had winters in the past which were forecasted cold and snowy and ended up mild and boring.... the autopsy blamed a pac jet that never came off steroids. I'm beginning to wonder if that might be the fate of this winter. Hopefully the glass half full is warranted. I'd love to see a bout of snow and cold settle in around mid to late Jan and then exit mid Feb.

I recall it well, primarily for how well in advance it was modeled. There was a very strong Arctic airmass in place. Here in Columbus, it started very late at night and continued into late afternoon the next day. Lots of virga at the onset. It didn't warm up enough to mix until 90% of the precip has ended. Ending as light freezing drizzle. I'm also sure, that at least here in my area we received closer to 9", vs the official CMH airport measurement of just under 7".

Was that the storm that twc had on its maps a week out without it ever changing?

I think at this point all of us would enjoy seeing snow fall and stick....period....regardless of staying power. I mean seriously, after a complete December shutout whose gonna whine about snowpack duration?

-This winter is going so bad.... - how bad,is it??? - stebo and the gang are discussing spring chases in the long range winter thread! Seriously, the long range models really crapped the bed. Even JB is admittedly rattled and beginning to second guess things.....and he usually never waivers.

Good catch....ill blame it on reading the article before my first cup of coffee.

How is this possible? 60 degrees above normal here would be like 100 degrees for highs. Has to be a misprint. Sydney (AFP) Australia's vast continent is sizzling through extreme heatwave conditions this week, with temperatures reaching record highs and emergency services on high alert for bushfires. The mercury is up to 16 degree Celsius (60.8 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than usual for this time of the year for southern Australia, with numerous towns setting new December records, the Bureau of Meteorology said Friday.

According to the MA and NE forums there hasn't been a sub-epic euro weekly run since October. Boston is even worse off than us in snowfall to date, not to mention DC as well.

mjo trend doesn't look good. The lates euro takes it from 6 into the COD vs. previous runs in which it took it across 7 and 8 at low amplitude. Meanwhile the gefs takes it into 7 at higher amplitude but then curls it back towards 6. Really a lot of conflicting signals once you get past about day 10....it's like everything is on the table from a torch to a full on suppressed arctic outbreak.

JB has been riding -02-03 HARD....often putting up verification maps to bolster his claim that it's a remarkable analog. Heh, then again he's thrown 77-78 out there too....hell that's blasphemy. I often wonder if anyone ever verifies seasonal analog forecasts after it's all said and done. Every fall we get all these analogs being thrown at us....I wonder how many actually pan out? Personally I think analogs are a crock and for pure entertainment. When you think about how microscopic the sample size is, (going back 100 years or whatever), it's kind of a joke.