buckeye

that'd be great if the FV3 didn't have a verification score similar to a cras ensemble member.

Not sure how long you've been on these boards but I consider myself an 'Elder' lol. I go back to pre-wrightweather, (I'm talking like compu-serve TWC forum), which was pre-easternuswx, which was before americanweather. Ji was around back then, (shout out to Hoosier too), we're talking like 20 years ago and there were no regional forums. You can imagine what it was like when a storm was coming and we were all fighting over which way it was going to track. DT, LC, HM, all were regular posters. It was a crazy sh*t show but it was also a lot of fun. I actually miss bantering with a lot of those guys, (Ji, weatherfella, and so many others that have now vanished to their own regional corners). Ji cracks me up with some of his sarcastic posts. But yes, back to current times. It's amazing the time, thought, and analysis some of those guys put into posting. Sometimes I wonder if they have jobs and responsibilties....

It sucks that the only long range met discussions that go on this site are mostly in the MA and NE forums. We have very little discussion about long range, weeklies, etc. So I go over to their discussions to see if I can extrapolate what might happen here from what the buzz is over there. Well, fwiw to our back yard, according to the MA and NE mets, once again the weeklies are even more epic than the ones last week, which were more epic than the ones a week before that, which were more epic than the week before that....and yes more epic than....well you get the idea. ...and yet through it all the MA and NE have an even greater snowfall futility to date than many of us....which in istself is an amazing feat. I'm assuming that the deafening quiet on our forum is an unsettling reality that the trough axis is probably forecasted, (in this upcoming 'epic' period), to be too far east for us to get anything much more than a good cirrus smoking during the seemingly inevitable parade of KU's, HECS's, and BEC's that the eastern weenies are being told to strap themselves in for. oh well, cue pondo's, I-should-have-never-left-philly-rant , in....3...2...1...

....and just like that the opposite starts happening.... the 18z gfs looks flatter and more progressive. Euro probably gonna win this.

Actually the euro at 96 looked much better than the 00z. Trough was deeper and better heights in front. I thought it was going to a GFS solution then it just crapped the bed at 120. I think it still has about a 50/50 shot of being the model that caves between it and the GFS.

Sorry, 86.76%

I have zero faith in the gfs. If the 12z euro continues to show a non-event on a system only 4-6 days out.... it's probably over. Euro only caves to the gfs beyond day 5, any caving that happens under that is always from the gfs.

boobie fail?

One of those deals where the best case scenario is probably being shown with a couple...maybe 4". Any more phasing and it mixes, any less and it's weak sauce south of us. High pressure to the north is weakening and moving east so there's nothing to stop a more phased storm from sending in the warm tongue. But hell, at least it's something to track.

....not until I start participating

might be onto something. I was just looking at some things. The SOI which had gone strongly negative (-20 4 days ago) is now already back up to -4 and rising. The mjo (both gfs and euro), have us currently in 8 but moving to the COD in few days and then emerging out of the COD in phase 6. Those are all signals that certainly don't support any brutal cold period down the road. Also, the 12z gfs looks dramatically different days 14 and 15 on the 500 map than it has in recent runs, (and not in a good way). Either way, it's going to be fascinating to see how all of this winds up.

interesting observation. I actually feel the opposite. Last week it was looking like the calls for a brutal cold end of Jan into Feb were in trouble, but everything I've seen since than has flipped back to that potential brutal cold period happening. As someone else said, cousin Eddy just brough Clark's boss to him with a christmas bonus + 20% higher than last year JB is now back to bringing up 77-78 and claiming a brutal 30 to 60 day period on the horizon.... shocking... I know. (as much as I'd love snow, it would almost be worth going back to a December pattern just to see him meltdown again).

Hope it trends better.....im ready to track something.

Looked to me like about 9 members out of 50 show a light to moderate hit, only 1 or 2 show something more significant. Vast majority ,show nothing. Who knows though, maybe the gfs is going to be the first to trend better. But it's hard to get enthused when the euro is not seeing it 6 days out.

Meh, I'd be surprised it trended stronger or more phased. The 18z gefs is much less impressed then the op. I think this is the gfs doing its usual appear...dissappear...re-appear games before it finally deep sixes it.

Agree....lets get blasted for 3 or 4 weeks from late Jan into Feb and then snap the back of father winter.

Would love a 2010 redux. One thing I remember about that stretch of awesomeness is that the gfs started showing epic snowstorms piling up in the fantasy range .....it of course screwed up the details but nailed the 2-3' of snow on snow we ended up getting. That's what I'm looking for....storminess signal in the LR about the time the cold comes south. Really no threats showing up yet in any of the LR guidance.

The good news is climo always has a way of balancing out which means when we do get our groove back, it should be pretty nice....the bad news is that could be this year or in 3 years. Fwiw, the 384 hour gfs and most lr guidance looks ready to bring the hammer down temp-wise. Get ready for a long stretch,of brutal cold with pennies and nickels.

My daughter moved to DC for work this summer. When she came home for Christmas she told me she loved how warm it is there .

I know it seems that way in recent years. Honestly though wet and cold patterns shouldn't be exclusive. We had some amazing low pressure tracks for early winter that failed to produce because there was no cold air anywhere, but it's not like having antecedent cold air around would have kept those storm tracks from happening. I don't think cold and wet are mutually exclusive.....granted....BRUTALLY cold and wet usually are though. If we can keep this <angrysummons>boobie<angrysummons> look going.....split flow...and start bringing normal to slightly below normal air on the playing field than our only issue becomes timing, but at least there's something to track.

You should know better than taking me literally. I'm being a bit facetious here. My point is that although all signs point to colder weather, the eps mean is putrid for a 15 day stretch in January for our neck of the woods. That would indicate there are plenty of ensemble members out of the 51 that are complete shutouts, (and there are, I checked). We are in the Midwest, in January, with temps heading for a cool down and it appears we could be heading for a dry NW flow pattern, as Stebo has also indicated. Emerging from the wettest year on record for CMH only makes it even more craptastic.

True, reverse psychology is all we got.

You're in better shape than we are. According to the eps your 15 day total snow mean is approaching 2.5" Just make sure you post pics!

1" total snowfall mean over the next 15 days on the eps. #pattern/change_gonna_rock

I'd mourn for Indy if that happened.... I've always felt CMH and Indy have a special bond of brotherhood, forged in futility.