buckeye

By the way, I'd like to nominate Alek as official forum-wide storm thread initiator.

If you use a regular 10:1 snow total, you shave off about 4" everywhere. Question is which is a better predictor, kuchera or 10:1 ?

nice

eh, gotta feel for them a little. Nothing worse than tracking a big dog only to have the rug pulled. At the same time though, if I lived there I would always be concerned of the mixing and warm air....it literally comes with every threat they get, so they shouldn't of been too shocked once models started showing it a couple of days ago. That trend always gets worse and never reverses once it shows up.

pretty sure start time wasn't till late evening

Yeah, exactly. I’ll be checking surface obs compared to radar west of us.

I think we can rule out any worry about that. Even the nam barely gets sleet north of the Ohio river. And this set up is a little bit of a different animal than we’re used to. usually on these things at this time out, we’re nervously watching the models pull the sleet line up to i70.

I remember we had back to back big snows during that period. Didn’t realize it was that much.

Yea I was trying to think of our last 10”+ snowstorm. 18 years, sheesh

Looks like last minute trends are slightly nudging the heavy axis a little more north. Seeing more outputs of 12” for cmh. Looking like our first legit big dog since?

so how's the ohio crowd feeling now that models have all held together for a widespread 8-12 incher across Central Ohio, 36 hours out? What if any changes do you think might happen between now and during the storm? For me, I have zero worries of mixing and actually wouldn't mind a little bit stronger push north. Biggest concern is the dry air pushing more than the models are forecasting and losing some inches with the initial overrunning because of that. I think what will be telling is how much of a virga storm we get Saturday afternoon/evening. I can see a scenario waking up early Sunday morning with pixie dust and a wispy dusting on the ground and everyone freaking out that it's a bust....even though the main slug comes in Sunday morning into evening with the low. If we can score big on the initial overrunning than it's definitely game on for 12". No matter what happens it's pretty much a sure bet we break that 6" seal...finally...and we actually get to keep it for awhile instead of the usual 2 days.

say what you want, but he remains the consummate professional

he must have consulted with JB about what proper ratios to use

welcome back, this is like a reunion. I'm not ready to invest in this one until after the 00z runs...that leaves about 36 hours to start. I'm banking on the assumption that models have improved enough in the last 20 years that we don't have to worry about another real time catastrophic failure, ie Feb 2007.

yea, the nam and the gfs are bookends and the euro is the book. Same old same old

as much as I'd love that /\ this has more of a realistic feeling to it.

pretty solid consensus across the board, 7-9" along i-70. 6-10 seems like a solid forecast. Been awhile since we officially broke 6" in CMH so I ain't complaining

actually small diff I noticed, (also on the rgem) is the ns is a bit more flat and slightly further south. It's squeezing the precip shield and creating a sharper cutoff to the north. Probably noise at this point but definitely any hope for a stronger, further north trend isn't there....at least not yet. Actually I'm rooting for nw stronger myself. In the meantime this is an ohio river valley beatdown!

seemed low but only goes through Sunday 7am

can't see what's going on along the MA.... but that looks like a wrist-slitter for those guys

long time no read my friend.... hopefully we can score this

dude....cincy and towns along the ohio rive are ground zero for big snows west of the apps. If we get 6-10 you guys are easily 12+

Model consistency has really lined up. I like where we are along i70. We have some breathing room for a last minute nudge north, since the heaviest snow right now looks like southern Ohio along the river. Actually more worried about dry air and push south vs a big push north. ILN referenced the challenge of the initial push of moisture overcoming the dry air. Gotta wonder if we have hours of a virga storm to start..

Temps are gonna be a story, not so much for extreme record lows, rather the duration of the cold. Flipping through the euro for mby, the period starting this Sunday til the end of it's run, (Feb 5), our highest temp is 20 degrees. Just as strange, the lowest temp is like -10 which granted is probably a record for whichever day it occurs, but it's not really that crazy considering the snowpack we should have throughout that time frame. Usually these cold waves that hit this time of year with a snow pack almost always have a few days with stupid cold that rival all time cold record, (Dec 1989 -18 and Jan 1994 -22). The other thing with these types of periods is when the back breaks with the pattern, it's usually done for the winter.... (old man winter blows his load, then shuts the lights and goes to bed)

probably tomorrow those watches will expand to the east coast and up more through OH and IN meaning almost 1/4 of the US mainland will be under a winterstorm watch or warning.