buckeye

3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

NWS lowered me to 3-8 from 4-8. Why bother? In discussion, talked about more sleet & that’s why.

As we get closer they widen the uncertainty, maybe they should go 1-8 and give themselves a 90% chance of hitting the mark.

54 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

He posted on Twitter today that both died from COVID. 

that's terrible.    Thanks for the update, I had a hunch it was covid and maybe they were removed from the ventilators at the same time.

1 minute ago, jaf316 said:

NAM continues to take a dump on our storm -- but it's marginally better. It ups the snowfall in Columbus from 0.3 inches (6z) to 1.6 inches (12z). Progress! 

Even the trash HRRR is a big improvement.   I don't think we'll have a handle on snow vs. ice until tonight when the first overrunning slug runs through and we can see where the front makes it to for the wave following it.    I've noticed there is more and more of a lull in precip showing up between the first and second wave, that lull might allow the cold air to progress a little more southeast.

14 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

https://www.13abc.com/weather/

 

Scroll down to the Radar

Thanks

Who has a link for a good precip-type radar?

5 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

This is what I don’t get.  I get this warm tongue thing up the Scioto River Valley but this is a strong wave not a strong low pressure system.  I just don’t get the warm bias making it’s way up here.

It's not really about incoming warm air, it's about dislodging warm air with Arctic air.   The shallow air is going to cool quickly while the upper layers will take more time.  That's why we have the ice threat.  It's such a thread the needle situation where we are located.   The overrunning further north is easy.  It's what happens after that, that gets convoluted.

3 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Looks the same in the end. 

Pretty much

4 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

Sorry guys didn’t want to start anything with that main thread, just got obnoxious.  This storm is as frustrating as severe weather season.  You don’t want a cold front or outflow blasting through yet it does and now you want a front blasting through and it appears it will only go far enough to create issues, lol.  Something doesn’t add up though with these placements.

It's all good.  This debate about splitting off the sub comes up every year.   This sub is definitely Chicago to lower Michigan centric.   

4 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

That state up North lol. Just having some rivalry fun.

Gotcha

KY and Minnesota are in our forum too, lol.

7 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

Plus the main complaint was about Chicago. Illinois is not a surrounding state-it does not touch Ohio. Bad enough we are adjacent to TSUN and are included with them lol.

Tsun?

6 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

What do you know about this fv3 model? It's been great for us today.

Not much.   I think rgem is going to be an improvement....hard to tell on the crappy black and white maps.

12 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

So far we're 0-2. 0z Nam and 0z HRRR both no good.

I wouldn't take the hrrr seriously until later tomorrow.   The extended hrrr is trash.

18 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Dude, read the sub topic "Ohio and Surrounding States", Ohio does NOT HAVE THEIR OWN DISCUSSION!

Then we should.   No offense to anyone in the sub but this storm is the perfect example of why we should be separate. 

Chicago and MI posters are rooting for opposite trends as us.   We all want to post info that bolsters the outcome we want.  So it turns into a pissing match of "this model went south...that model went north...this model is trash...that model does the best"...etc.

It's like being part of a sports forum and fans from two teams playing each other are posting in the same thread.  Nothing good comes from it and it always turns into a pissing match.   

Just now, dilly84 said:

Perfect low placement though. 

I flipped through the 500mb first and all features were slightly, but clearly southeast of 18z and yet the surface features were pretty much the same.  

I don't think the nam has the answer yet 

5 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Just a hair warmer...

Yea, I looked at tt and the mix line is a tad further north.   Looked better on stormvista 

7 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

You know me, I got that covered! 

can't wait until tomorrow when the radars are fired up and we start dissecting every hrrr run.   

You guys remember that one 2 years ago in January.    Started off as rain and sleet and was suppose to changeover but it took hours longer than expected.    The local meterologists caught all kinds of hell. 

appears gfs not budging....if anything possible a tick southeast

So according to the rgem we have a 1040 high centered in southern MN, and a 1011 wave in southern WV.

If someone asked me what that means for us, I'd say we'd be smoking cirrus.... and yet... we're getting an icestorm.

11 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

I have no reason to be optimistic in this god forsaken area called central Ohio when it comes to snow. I’m betting on a ton of rain & then a ton of sleet just like last February’s “monster” LOL

 ....well I guess we do need someone to cover the pessimism flank.   I'm trying to hold on the the optism flank.

Just now, JayPSU said:

What's your gut say?  You've seen more of these here than most of us!

I still feel more like this will go in our favor once the changeover hits.   The low on the nam travels just south of the Ohio river thru WV.   That's not a bad track and the fact that it's a relatively weak low/strong wave, I don't see a ton of warm air being drawn north.  Still have the high building in as well.    

What makes this tough is we are so close to the goods that real time, small, nuances could effect outcome big time.   Stuff like convection in the south and intensity of precip.   I also think how much of a break in precip between the two shots will have an effect on cold air progression.

So to sum up....i have no f'ing clue other then to say I've seen these situation end up both good and bad.   

still looking like either a big snow or a sleetfest.   We probably won't have a better handle until this thing is on radar and moving towards us tomorrow afternoon.      

Just now, dilly84 said:

There is, really. Canadian decided to become an outlier today. Ukie still looks good 

yea, canadian looks like trash.   Not just because it takes long to changeover, but it's pretty dry with the follow up wave.

other than that, good trends.   See what euro does then it's on to mesos and radar

3 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

We love the line. Best thing is that I think the icing risk is reduced for Columbus area. Maybe I’ll pile up 3” of sleet like last year here on OSU campus. The snow shenanigans are always worth it!

worst sleet storm I recall was in Feb '94,    we were sitting at 15 degrees all day with heavy sleet.   I think we got 3-4" of it and then that evening it changed to freezing rain with thunderstorms.   The next day people were ice skating on high street.

Just now, Gino27 said:

Most of Columbus is still shafted. Gonna need another day of model shifts like we had yesterday 

the nam making a significant shift southeast is telling.  Last night it started looking like it was trending in a bad direction for us, but that turned around.     At this stage, I think the trend will be our friend from here on out.   Still gonna be a close one...but when aren't we riding the line?

19 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Nam is pushing in the cold quicker.   Looks like it's moving towards the gfs....so far

Nam definitely looks better, less mix more snow.   Fairly significant southeast shift.