buckeye

typical historic trends and climo are for typical storms....this is not going to be a typical storm.

I don't know whether the current track holds or it goes west or it goes east....nor does anyone else.    I suppose this might be classified as a manitoba mauler??    If fail happens, (meaning getting the snowfall shaft), it won't be because of a warm tongue, it'll be a dryslot that screws someone.    Sure there'll be rain ahead of the storm but models often underestimate how quickly the temps crash with such a dynamic system.   This is not the type of system where we'll be waiting endlessly for sleet and rain to turn to snow,  it'll be rain...bang...snow and wind.   Whether we get 3" or a foot it's going to be a fun one.    The blizzard of 78 only dropped 6 or 7 inches in a very short time and that closed the city for a week and was the deadliest and costliest winterstorm in our history.

Let's not offend mother nature by complaining about dendrite growth due to high winds .    Let's jus get a memorable xmas eve snowstorm that we can tell our grandkids about.   Besides, I have my first grandchild due xmas day!   Going to be a fun week.

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19 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Looking like more heartbreak for Ohio. Sorry guys. Snow isn't looking like much.  Wind will probably be the main story.

126 hr gefs…. Not exactly a set in stone track.   Very dynamic system and doubtful exact track is nailed down outside of 72 hrs.  Whatever happens this is a fun one to track.  
  

icon, but gem is similar, a little less extreme

you gotta admit this would be kinda cool

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

So far this morning, all non-GFS models are wildly different.  They are trying to dig the trough much farther west.

Just check out the UK

 

 

I wonder if the gfs still has a bias for being too far east

looks like the trough out west is trending more west on the models.   The gfs is still digging and resulting in a coastal track while the canadian and icon are driving the ull much further north and sending one hell of an arctic front through.   We need a combination of the gfs and the gem.    Although I wouldn't mind an icon solution.   Thunder and driving rain changing immediately to heavy snow, wind, and flash freeze to single digits would be fun....even if it only lasts an hour.  

25 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

GFS = baby steps in right direction 

Forget about it…. DT saw the 12z gfs and is barking like a rabid dog.  This is not just a coastal but a BFD (his words), and he’s even cutting a special vid.   Any future runs showing a further nw solution will be deemed as defying physics and you will be instructed to ignore.

With the ostracisation and subsequent disappearance of Hoosier, I was concerned over who would pick up the sub's drought monitoring duties.  Looks like Alek has it handled.

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Not to get our hopes up for a good storm in long range or not get sucked in run to run on every model or both? Ha

It’s basically what we do.  Why else come here?  

also ukmet looks like it would go in a completely different direction with the pna ridge offf shore and trough much further west…. That would probably be Chicago special.

Lol and the Canadian says what storm?

Looks like the gfs went with my option 2 .   

definitely a thread the needle...but when aren't they?

options

1.  strung out fast moving northern stream sends a run-of-the-mill cold front (gfs 6z)

2. potent northern stream digs to TN valley and sets up a coastal and we are in the donut-hole smoking cirrus

3. something in between, (euro)

At least it appears there won't be precip-type issues.  Even if someone starts as rain it would be a quick turnover.

37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

currently riding the 12z gem

me too.... that's a hell of a Merry Christmas courtesy of the folks up north

3 week scheduled maintenance bump

15 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah the one thing I am seeing is that the NAO doesn't get locked in place, so it very well could be a case that everyone in the east gets something decent after the 15th of the month.

Main thing is keeping the Pacific sending waves into the SW part of the country and not cut them off there.

I've never seen 500 maps as crazy as they've been.   Everything is fast moving and blocky at the same time.  If you do model run comparisons beyond 120 hours, the changes and differences are night and day run to run..   Gotta be a nightmare for forecasters.

14 hours ago, Harry said:

Right now I'll take the 70+ stuff we had today over the crap we are looking at this weekend. Yes as I get older I am favoring warmer. Ofcourse cold by itself has never done anything for me anyways.. 

Me too.  My body doesn't handle cold like it use to.  Every winter I start to understand more and more why people move south after retirement.   Of course I still love a good snow if I'm going to be in this climo anyways.

We will challenge our record today which was previously set Nov 6 1977.

Therefore my official winter analog is 77-78

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

the good thing about hoosier being de-modded for what can charitably be described as repeat pedo adjacent comments and stebo being refused the job for some unspecified reason, is it's pretty much a free for all now

should be a good winter

so no mod this winter and the Ohio crowd has yet to self-quarantine....

Juice up the storm track and it's gonna be thunderdome in here.

On 10/27/2022 at 9:08 AM, cyclone77 said:

Mid-Atlantic peeps ain't gonna like that one lol.

43 pages in their winter spec thread.  I suspect they'll be cancelling winter by next week.

25 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

WAD

better yet.

GFS says we, (central ohio), after tomorrow, don't go sub 40 for the next 16 days.  Absolutely love warm dry Novembers.

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

futility record going down this winter, i can feel it in my bones

- latest measurable snowfall?

- least snowfall?

- both?

due to CAD or WAW?  

On 9/28/2022 at 8:23 PM, Dabuckeyes said:

I was fortunate enough to live in Baltimore, MD back in 2009-2010.  My favorite storm(s) was 24" of snow that fell Friday night through Saturday evening.  Temps were in the 20s with gusty winds.  We were still digging out on Sunday when we had a Winter Storm Watch posted for another storm coming on Tuesday.  That Tuesday storm surprisingly dropped another 20+" of snow.  I'd take that week again in a heartbeat!

Another Westervillian!   

March 8,9 2008   TWO MONTHS EARLIER

In general I like snowstorms between the window of xmas and the end of January.    I also favor duration over intensity.   I recall an upper low that parked itself over the area back in the mid 90's that produced steady light snow over the entire weekend and we ended up with 9" by Sunday evening.   

I also like a well-forecasted snowstorm that locks in 4 days out, (a true rarity in CMH where we ride the razor's edge with every storm).

SR and meso's really sucking on placement of storms and heavy rain, (at least over the eastern part of the sub and OV).

Models are all over the place.