BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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The ICON actually has a good bit of snow for this area on Sunday
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Still exempt?
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Still too warm but building a southern trend. Snow line is down to the N.C./VA line
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Not what the scores bear out
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KGSP is still at a 9” mean on the 18z GEFS. KGSO is at 11”. KCLT is at 8”. All dramatic increases since this morning.
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Yes. Unless they start changing then no reason to panic yet.
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...you’re putting stock in the model that’s now way inland after it barely got precip into N.C. last run.
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EPS Mean for Chapel Hill went from 2.75 to almost 5". Burlington went from just over 3" to half a foot. Lincolnton went from 3.5 to 7. You get the picture.
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12z GEFS for IGX Mean: 6" 7/20 members have T-2" 3/20 members have 3-5" 4/20 members have 6-8" 6/20 members have 10"+
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There's actually more QPF this run across most of NC.
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Yeah, doesnt look much like the OP AT ALL.
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GEFS numbers pretty much skyrocketed, which naturally means EPS numbers will be way down.
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They almost never come back once they go warm.
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Nothing more than a nuisance event outside of the immediate foothills this run, just taken at face value.
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Probably along or about 20 miles south of the NC/SC border
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UKMET looks cold enough at 850, safely so.
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Snows in Charlotte from hour 126 until hour 180.
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FV3 looks like a pure Miller A snowstorm with a narrow, if not barely even there, transition area.
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Been doing this since the winter of 2000. I can assure absolutely everybody that this is exactly what we want to see right now.
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ICON seems to be out on its own island.
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I'm really interested in how the FV3 does this event because it's been routing the actual GFS for some time now.
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I dont think EPS backed off so much as the OP wasnt skewing the results.
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I remember Eric Thomas was talking about a major event almost 6 days out.
