BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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A certainty 120 hours out? I get the pessimism if I was talking about Johnston or SE Wake but I still think North and West Wake plus durham and a lot of orange are still in this.
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And that 2002 storm had about two and a half inches liquid
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Control run crushes just about everyone somehow.
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ICON is now almost all snow here, looking at my extracted data.
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If they get a good bit of snow, you're gonna be surprised how quick town of davidson gets it cleaned up. I think you'll do well!
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I can remember last year when the difference in distance between my house and Wow's house was about 7 miles,give or take, and he ended up with more snow than I did in Davidson.
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I think you'll do well. What part of town are you in?
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
BullCityWx replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I've been dying for a snowy Panthers home game since they came to town in 1996. They are out of town this weekend. No way this fails. -
I think this run was really good for those of us either on the N or NW sides. There's 18" totals just north of town here near Bahama.
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There's probably already half a foot of snow on the ground, at least, before this considers changing over IMBY.
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Cary is barely holding onto a snow sounding by 120.
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Charlotte looks like sleet by 120.
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Heavy snow looks like from Charlotte N&W at 114.
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Looks like everything is well within noise range with the last run through hour 90.
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The canadian always seems to do well with that too, not sure why.
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Extrapolating the UKMET out past 144, I think it would've ended up looking like some of these other runs of operational models that showed 20"+ totals across a majority of the piedmont. That is providing it stayed cold enough.
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thank god for 2" of QPF, right?
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I trust the NAM with thermal profiles in these situations, other details are much more iffy.
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I apologize if I missed this being mentioned but the UKMET had a significant snowfall increase on its clown maps at 0z.
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The bottom line is we havent seen a large early December snowstorm since the 70s and only about 5 since records have been kept in the carolinas.
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and I should've probably mentioned that when I was talking about the ensembles. If it's 2" of QPF, I could easily see it being 6" of snow and 3" of sleet. It could always change to rain but I cant see the surface warming that much with north winds for the duration.
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Yep, this too. This isnt one of these la nina storms where we struggle for QPF. This thing is juiced up.
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I really doubt this storm ends up as 100% snow for anyone except the mountains, including the foothills. The ratio of sleet to snow obviously grows as you push further east but the question is how much sleet. I do feel pretty confident right now that it's either going to be sleet or snow at this juncture IMBY. If I was s&e of 85(Cary, Raleigh, Most of Wake and Johnston), I'd be really concerned about a massive ice storm. I also feel like we're going to see a colder surface reflection with the damming and heavy precip.
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Last night on the 0z GFS, 17" of snow fell in Burlington in 9 hours. 8.6" of it fell between 15-18z.
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I would generally agree with you but we have two ensemble model suites screaming about this.
