BullCityWx

A little. It’s definitely better than 0z

The ensembles actually look a bit better for MBY vs 0z.

For what it is worth, the 12z GEFS had a better run than 6z. Fingers crossed it does.

Whatever much of my tax dollars goes to keep up the GFS, it's too much. This run, the surface low moves 600 miles NW at 156 then transfers to off CHS at 162. Uh huh. Sure.

210127/2100Z 159 06006KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 0| 0|100 210128/0000Z 162 03006KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 0| 0|100 210128/0300Z 165 07009KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 0| 0|100 210128/0600Z 168 03009KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.235 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80 0| 0|100 210128/0900Z 171 02011KT 29.7F SNOW 15:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.470 15:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.27 100| 0| 0 210128/1200Z 174 36012KT 26.5F SNOW 11:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.314 14:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.58 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210128/1500Z 177 36014KT 26.0F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 13:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65 100| 0| 0 210128/1800Z 180 36011KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65 0| 0| 0

For what it's worth, 6z BUFKIT had 11" for RDU.

You're the pro so you're seeing things I'm not I am sure. I'm concerned that the flow looked so progressive on the euro. If we can slow it down like we had yesterday at 12z then I think we've got a pretty good signal.

To be honest, I feel more confident in the high than I do QPF at this point. It's hard for those La Nina waves to hold up across the country. I picked Burlington out of thin air and there's too many 0.0s for my liking.

Not awful

The old GFS seems to have caught up to the 0z GFSV16.

A solid second place in the mid range roughly, yes.

Ain’t much a 1044MB high can’t fix for us

Really gets cranking and buries New Bern and Jacksonville and all the sound adjacent areas.

Heavy snow from Greenville to southside VA.

Snow breaking out across almost the entirety of NC except the area around Murphy at 180.

GFSv16 has a 1044MB high pressure at 174 in lower Ontario.

Yes. Honestly, my gut says more IP than ZR. Bufkit had a 21:1 ratio for RDU at 180.

18z GEFS mean would imply a storm that progresses from ZR -> IP -> SN(potentially just IP -> SN) for much of NC. I’m not really worried about the snow maps so much as pattern recognition.

Euro ENSMEAN for the day 8 event has one of the strongest damming signals on a smoothed out mean I've ever seen at this lead time. Ever.

Still got a lazy eye on what passes through Thursday. That is a perfect example of an event that could jump north quickly.

Another heavy frost

18z GFS made a big step toward the euro solution.

Yep, better push those ptypes south.

I think honestly it'd be more sleet with what I saw. the 925 temps for MBY were around -6.