BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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Okay, definitely snowing at the house now.
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Nothing here at present
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The NAM tonight had a very interesting band in Orange County on Monday. Actually, I guess it was the second run in a row for roughly that same location. Someone is gonna sneak out another inch or two Monday, just gotta hope the slot machine lines up.
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I wish we had someone in Hillsborough for ground truth.
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Agreed
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My nephew texted me and said it’s snowing in Gastonia.
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We hit 18.4 last night. Up to 34 now.
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GFS gave me a bit more than an inch tomorrow night.
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2” mile just 10 miles north of me. I doubt that.
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3k NAM is about to be a big freezing rain event pretty far south.
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The HRRR has a lot of....sleet here?
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The euro still likes the idea of snow for Monday for the 40/85 corridor from Greensboro to Durham.
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Yeah, it looks like it actually backs into the northern areas of the triangle and triad.
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There's something off about those maps. It has to be including everything frozen/freezing. The maps on F5 look nothing like that.
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I should qualify that with I think we actually have a better than average snow on the back side of this event.
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I hate to say it but I am beginning to believe I was right about my gut feeling about this storm earlier this week. It's an absolute non-event for 90% of North Carolinians and that might even be creeping into the border counties of VA. Pretty much the only model currently showing a significant event for us is the RGEM.
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Through Hour 48.
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I saw a guy in the discusion thread say he got 5". I think he was in the Timberlake or S. Roxboro area.
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It's way, way too much QPF but even if you take a quarter of that, it's nasty.
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I dont think this is a cold bias sort of situation with the canadian, it is simply holding the damming in longer than the other modelling.
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I saw that myself and I've done this dance before. It wouldnt shock me to see that be correct.
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The biggest difference I can find in the GFS and the RGEM is the high pressure is much, much further north on the GFS.
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Yeah even a quarter of what that shows is ice storm warning criteria for almost everybody.
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The RGEM absolutely crushes 85N in the triad and triangle to the state line in Virginia with an awful ice storm.
