BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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I think so. I like the extracted data from F5 but it seems spurious at times. I dont like the interface at weathermodels.com at all. Pivotal isnt awful but lacks the extracted stuff that I really like but does have arguably the best UKMET data.
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Para GFS has 210 continuous hours of snow depth at my house.
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It looks like the euro wants to give me the same exact amount of snow I got in the last event.
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I cant remember seeing a colder pattern on an ensemble mean in a while.
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In summation: ignore the OP.
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Man, this is a damn good ensemble run.
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I'd say that is a strong signal:
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I'm more worried about missing this event to the south or east than I am west.
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Yeah it is very, very icy for NC.
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Dont get too high or too low off OP runs right now. We're still in the ensemble forecasting range.
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Para GFS has snow starting as soon as next thursday.
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We're right at 33 here as well. It does fall in the middle of the night so that is always helpful.
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Definitely wasnt expecting an inch of sleet this run. Almost always that is a transitional ptype here in much colder weather.
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Oh this might be a nice run.
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Euro Control has a 20 mile wide 2" stripe from roughly Greenville, SC to Roxboro.
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Also, for Sunday:
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All snow west of Highway 1 in NC. It finishes with about an inch of QPF with 850s around -12:
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The control run dropped a ton of snow. Although how that is depicted in the Carolinas is kinda how I’d expect this to go given past history with these storms. There’s probably going to be a lot of ice for places like Whiteville and Florence and Wilmington.
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ICON had a developing event at the tail end of its run at hour 180.
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It would be the biggest event ever in every population center in the Carolinas except Charleston and maybe Wilmington.
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Don’t forget about that euro control run
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The GEFS has two storms. One that hits mostly N GA/N SC/NC/S VA with a second event further down into SC.
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The only thing I’ve seen look nearly as good is some of the runs we saw before December 2018
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I’ll gladly take a quarter of that run and call it a winter. You and I have been at this a long time and that might be an all time run.
